DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge off the West Coast. A trough in central Canada is pushing a disturbance through the Canadian Prairies. It will move through the northern U.S. throughout the week, probably in a couple of small pieces. Another ridge will develop in the Southeast late this week, shifting west into the Southern Plains this weekend into early next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The trough in central Canada will continually be reinforced, sending energy through the northern half of the U.S., probably through the end of July, while the ridge stays generally stalled out across the Southern Plains.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar, though the GFS is farther west with the southern ridge. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will continue across the Corn Belt this weekend, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms through. Another system is expected to move through Canada early next week with more showers into the U.S. We could see another system mid-late next week. Across the South and Southeast, high heat and humidity could produce some isolated showers and thunderstorms, but would be spotty. Seasonable temperatures are forecast across the North-Central, but will probably waffle as systems move through. Southern areas should see temperatures increasing with potential stressful heat building. That could build up into the north at times as well.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...124 AT 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TECOPA, CA

LOW MON...31 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...WILKES BARRE, PA 2.52 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge off the West Coast. A trough in central Canada is pushing a disturbance through the Canadian Prairies. It will move through the northern U.S. throughout the week, probably in a couple of small pieces. Another ridge will develop in the Southeast late this week, shifting west into the Southern Plains this weekend into early next week. The trough in central Canada will continually be reinforced, sending energy through the northern half of the U.S., probably through the end of July, while the ridge stays generally stalled out.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar, though the GFS is farther west with the southern ridge. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will continue across the Corn Belt this weekend, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms through. Another system is expected to move through Canada early next week with more showers into the U.S. We could see another system mid-late next week. Across the South and Southeast, high heat and humidity could produce some isolated showers and thunderstorms, but would be spotty. Seasonable temperatures are forecast across the North-Central, but will probably waffle as systems move through. Southern areas should see temperatures increasing with potential stressful heat building. That could build up into the north at times as well.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system is moving through in a couple of pieces through Wednesday, bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms. Though some severe weather may occur, some beneficial heavy rainfall will also occur. Another system will move through late this week and more are in the pipeline for next week, keeping the pattern busy. Temperatures will be on a rollercoaster, with a big burst of colder air coming over the next couple of days, but then rising again toward the weekend, only to waffle around with systems next week. The active weather pattern will bring scattered showers though, missing some areas that need some heavier rain, but the pattern is overall favorable for developing crops.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Recent rainfall has been favorable for developing to reproductive corn and soybeans for most of the region. Showers will continue across the southeast for most of the week, while the rest of the region will see scattered showers and thunderstorms with a front passing through over the next couple of days. Temperatures continue to be seasonable and non-stressful. However, much warmer and drier conditions may start to develop next week.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Very few spots in the region are doing poorly with soil moisture as corn and soybeans get more into pollination. The region stays busy with systems and disturbances continuing showers and thunderstorms across the region through this week and probably next week as well, as conditions stay overall favorable.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Isolated showers continue across the region for the next week. Rainfall amounts are forecast to be below-normal for the most part, but the continued showers may bring enough timely rainfall as more of the crops get into or through reproductive stages. The region will also watch the Gulf of Mexico this week, as a small disturbance there could become tropical and bring showers into the region in a few days. That would bring heavier rainfall to the region should it develop.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WHEAT): Hot and dry conditions have forced drought to increase over much of the region over the last couple of months. That trend is forecast to continue for the next two weeks, helping the winter wheat harvest, but having a significant negative impact on heading spring wheat.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): A system moving through brought some good rainfall to much of Alberta and western Saskatchewan on Monday, with showers near the U.S. border on Tuesday. While the weather pattern stays active with more systems moving through later this week and next week, showers are forecast to stay scattered, leaving some areas too dry and significantly reducing production as more of the wheat and canola crops get into reproductive and filling stages. The driest areas continue to be in Manitoba.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Drier conditions over the last two weeks have been favorable for the ongoing safrinha corn harvest and to drain some wet soils across the south from previous heavy rainfall. A front is likely to move through on Wednesday and Thursday with some showers across the south, though coverage and intensity are forecast to be low.

ARGENTINA (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Some meaningful showers went through southern and central areas late last week and weekend, favorable for building some soil moisture for winter wheat. Another front will move through Tuesday and Wednesday with more favorable rainfall for building soil moisture. Another probably goes through early next week with similar rainfall as well.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system will move through the continent over the next few days with rain that favors eastern areas again. Those in the west have been much hotter and drier, which has been stressing the end of filling wheat and developing corn. A system later this week and weekend could bring more favorable rainfall to western countries, but that is not guaranteed.

Temperatures will generally stay above normal through the end of July even with the systems passing through, stressing some of the drier areas.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Some limited showers went through northern areas over the weekend, but most areas stayed drier. The same will be true for most of this week as temperatures remain above normal. A system moving in from Europe late this week and weekend might bring in more showers, but models are favoring western and northern areas right now. Some continued dryness has been concerning for those areas across the southeast.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Limited showers are forecast to move through this week as well as next week, missing plenty of areas with too little rainfall. Drought continues to be a problem for much of the country's winter wheat and canola. If the dryness continues for another month, it would be more concerning as the crops start to head into their reproductive stages of growth.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Showers have been few and far between on the North China Plain this season. A couple of systems will move through the country this week and weekend, which may bring some showers to these areas, but will favor the northeast, where conditions have been much better for developing corn and soybeans.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday, near normal Saturday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.

Temperatures near normal Sunday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers southeast. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday, near normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers north Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Thursday. Temperatures near normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, near to above normal north and near to below normal south Friday-Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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