DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge on the West Coast. A trough in central Canada is pushing a disturbance through the Canadian Prairies. It will move through the northern U.S. throughout the week, probably in a couple of small pieces. Another ridge will develop in the Southeast late this week, shifting west this weekend into early next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The trough in central Canada will continually be reinforced, sending energy through the northern half of the U.S., probably through the end of July, while the ridge continually develops across the Southern Plains or Southwest.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A system will continue across the Corn Belt this weekend, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms through. Another system is expected to move through Canada early next week with more showers into the U.S. We could see another system mid-late next week. South of the fronts and systems, high humidity should produce areas of showers and thunderstorms as well. Seasonable temperatures are forecast across most of the U.S. east of the Rockies, though some higher anomalies are possible across the South and Southeast if fronts cannot penetrate deeper through the country.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...121 AT STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA, DEATH VALLEY, CA, AND BADWATER BASIN, CA

LOW SUN...27 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...JACKSON, MS 1.74 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge on the West Coast. A trough in central Canada is pushing a disturbance through the Canadian Prairies. It will move through the northern U.S. throughout the week, probably in a couple of small pieces. Another ridge will develop in the Southeast late this week, shifting west this weekend into early next week. The trough in central Canada will continually be reinforced, sending energy through the northern half of the U.S., probably through the end of July, while the ridge continually develops across the Southern Plains or Southwest.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will continue across the Corn Belt this weekend, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms through. Another system is expected to move through Canada early next week with more showers into the U.S. We could see another system mid-late next week. South of the fronts and systems, high humidity should produce areas of showers and thunderstorms as well. Seasonable temperatures are forecast across most of the U.S. east of the Rockies, though some higher anomalies are possible across the South and Southeast if fronts cannot penetrate deeper through the country.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): It was mostly dry over the weekend. A system will move through in a couple of pieces Monday through Wednesday, likely bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms. Though some severe weather may occur, some beneficial heavy rainfall will also be possible.

Another system will move through late this week and more are in the pipeline for next week. Temperatures will be on a rollercoaster, but generally not stressful. The active weather pattern will bring scattered showers though, missing some areas that need some heavier rain, but the pattern is overall favorable for developing crops.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Widespread showers and thunderstorms occurred over the weekend, bringing some areas of heavy rain, and making it difficult to harvest wheat. However, the rainfall has been favorable for developing to reproductive corn and soybeans. Showers will continue across the southeast for most of the week, while the rest of the region sees occasional fronts passing through with scattered showers and thunderstorms as well. Temperatures continue to be seasonable and non-stressful. Warmer and drier conditions may start to develop next week.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A stalled system and another catching up to it brought areas of heavy rain to some of the driest areas of the region, including the northern half of Illinois over the weekend. Other areas were missed, including drier spots in northern Indiana, which have now taken the place of the most concerning conditions in the region. However, very few spots in the region are doing poorly with soil moisture as corn and soybeans get more into pollination. The region stays busy with systems and disturbances continuing showers and thunderstorms across the region through this week and probably next week as well, as conditions stay overall favorable.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Isolated showers continued across the region over the weekend and should continue through next week as well. Rainfall amounts are forecast to be below-normal for the most part, but the continued showers may bring enough timely rainfall as more of the crops get into or through reproductive stages.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WHEAT): Hot and dry conditions have forced drought to increase over much of the region over the last couple of months. That trend is forecast to continue through the rest of the month, helping the winter wheat harvest, but having a significant negative impact on spring wheat that is starting to head in greater numbers.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): Isolated showers went through over the weekend. A system moving through on Monday and Tuesday should bring more scattered showers and thunderstorms. That could bring some much-needed rainfall to some areas, but will also leave some areas dry. Models are favoring southern Alberta and the U.S. border areas with rainfall, leaving some drier areas in northern Saskatchewan and much of Manitoba with little or no rainfall. While the weather pattern stays active with more systems moving through later this week and next week, showers are forecast to stay scattered, leaving some areas too dry and significantly reducing production as more of the wheat and canola crops get into reproductive and filling stages.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Drier conditions over the last two weeks have been favorable for the ongoing safrinha corn harvest and to drain some wet soils across the south from previous heavy rainfall. A front is likely to move through on Wednesday and Thursday with some showers across the south, though coverage and intensity are forecast to be low.

ARGENTINA (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Some meaningful showers went through southern and central areas late last week and weekend, favorable for building some soil moisture for winter wheat. Another front will move through Tuesday and Wednesday with more favorable rainfall for building soil moisture. Another probably goes through early next week with similar rainfall as well.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A stalled system brought widespread rainfall over eastern areas late last week and weekend, which was favorable for building soil moisture in areas that had been drier. Another system will move through the continent this week, but with amounts that favor eastern areas again. Those in the west have been much hotter and drier, which has been stressing the end of filling wheat and developing corn. A system later this week and weekend could bring more favorable rainfall to western countries, but that is not guaranteed.

Temperatures will generally stay above normal through the end of July even with the systems passing through, stressing some of the drier areas.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Some limited showers went through northern areas over the weekend, but most areas stayed drier. The same will be true for most of this week as temperatures remain above normal. A system moving in from Europe late this week and weekend might bring in more showers, but models are favoring northern areas again right now as well. Some continued dryness has been concerning for those areas across the south.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Limited showers went through over the weekend and more are forecast to move through this week as well. However, drought continues to be a problem for much of the country's winter wheat and canola. If the dryness continues for another month, it would be more concerning as the crops start to head into their reproductive stages of growth.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Showers missed more of the North China Plain over the weekend, which has had issues with heat and dryness for much of the season. A couple of systems will move through the country this week and weekend, which may bring some showers to these areas, but will favor the northeast, where conditions have been much better.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Friday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday.

Temperatures near to below normal Saturday, near normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Wednesday.\

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers north Saturday-Sunday.

Mostly dry Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures near normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday.

Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures above normal through Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, near to above normal north and near to below normal south Friday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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