Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Continued good weather in the Corn Belt, and areas of dryness in the Pacific Northwest, Canadian Prairies, Europe, the Black Sea region, and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

WIDESPREAD RAIN FALLING ACROSS THE CORN BELT

A stalled system and another catching up to it brought areas of heavy rain to some of the driest areas of the Midwest this weekend, including the northern half of Illinois. Other areas were missed, including drier spots in northern Indiana, which have now taken the place of the most concerning conditions in the region. However, very few spots in the region are doing poorly with soil moisture as corn and soybeans get more into pollination. The region stays busy with systems and disturbances continuing showers and thunderstorms across the region through this week and probably next week as well, as conditions stay overall favorable.

THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING ISOLATED FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Widespread showers and thunderstorms occurred across the Central and Southern Plains over the weekend, bringing some areas of heavy rain, and making it difficult to harvest wheat. However, the rainfall has been favorable for developing to reproductive corn and soybeans. Showers will continue across the southeast for most of the week, while the rest of the region sees occasional fronts passing through with scattered showers and thunderstorms as well. Temperatures continue to be seasonable and non-stressful. Warmer and drier conditions may start to develop next week.

NORTHERN PLAINS GETTING MULTIPLE SYSTEMS

It was mostly dry for the Northern Plains over the weekend. A system will move through in a couple of pieces Monday through Wednesday, likely bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms. Though some severe weather may occur, some beneficial heavy rainfall will also be possible. Another system will move through late this week, and more are in the pipeline for next week. Temperatures will be on a rollercoaster, but generally not stressful. The active weather pattern will bring scattered showers though, missing some areas that need some heavier rain, but the pattern is overall favorable for developing crops.

ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE DELTA

Isolated showers continued across the Delta over the weekend and should continue through next week as well. Rainfall amounts are forecast to be below-normal for the most part, but the continued showers may bring enough timely rainfall as more of the crops get into or through reproductive stages.

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Hot and dry conditions have forced drought to increase over much of the Pacific Northwest over the last couple of months. That trend is forecast to continue through the rest of July, helping the winter wheat harvest, but having a significant negative impact on spring wheat that is starting to head in greater numbers.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES SEEING MULTIPLE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH

Isolated showers went through the Canadian Prairies over the weekend. A system moving through on Monday and Tuesday should bring more scattered showers and thunderstorms. That could bring some much-needed rainfall to some areas, but will also leave some areas dry. Models are favoring southern Alberta and the U.S. border areas with rainfall, leaving some drier areas in northern Saskatchewan and much of Manitoba with little or no rainfall. While the weather pattern stays active with more systems moving through later this week and next week, showers are forecast to stay scattered, leaving some areas too dry and significantly reducing production as more of the wheat and canola crops get into reproductive and filling stages.

WEAK FRONT BRINGING SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Drier conditions over the last two weeks have been favorable for the ongoing safrinha corn harvest and to drain some wet soils across southern Brazil from previous heavy rainfall. A front is likely to move through on Wednesday and Thursday with some showers across the south, though coverage and intensity are forecast to be low.

ANOTHER SYSTEM TO STALL OVER EASTERN EUROPE

A stalled system brought widespread rainfall over eastern Europe late last week and weekend, which was favorable for building soil moisture in areas that had been drier. Another system will move through the continent this week, but with amounts that favor eastern areas again. Those in the west have been much hotter and drier, which has been stressing the end of filling wheat and developing corn. A system later this week and weekend could bring more favorable rainfall to western countries, but that is not guaranteed. Temperatures will generally stay above normal through the end of July even with the systems passing through, stressing some of the drier areas.

DRIER AND WARMER FOR BLACK SEA REGION

Some limited showers went through northern areas of the Black Sea region over the weekend, but most areas stayed drier. The same will be true for most of this week as temperatures remain above normal. A system moving in from Europe late this week and weekend might bring in more showers, but models are favoring northern areas again right now as well. Some continued dryness has been concerning for those areas across the south.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN AUSTRALIA NOT ENOUGH TO QUELL DROUGHT

Limited showers went through Australia over the weekend and more are forecast to move through this week as well. However, drought continues to be a problem for much of the country's winter wheat and canola. If the dryness continues for another month, it would be more concerning as the crops start to head into their reproductive stages of growth.

LITTLE RAINFALL FOR CENTRAL CHINA

Showers missed more of the North China Plain in central China over the weekend, which has had issues with heat and dryness for much of the season. A couple of systems will move through the country this week and weekend, which may bring some showers to these areas, but will favor the northeast, where conditions have been much better for developing to reproductive corn and soybeans.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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