DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Southwest with another in eastern Canada. A pair of troughs are moving into the Central U.S., continuing through the weekend with a larger storm system.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The Southwest ridge will get pushed off the West Coast and a trough will swing through the middle of the continent next week. The ridge will rebuild, but it will start in the South and work backward toward the West late next week and weekend. The general western ridge and eastern trough scenario looks like it may hold on through the rest of July.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A front may be stalled across the Southeast early week with scattered showers. Another system will move through the country around the middle of next week with more showers, which may have its front get stuck across the South and Southeast again as well. And we should probably see another system for next weekend. Temperatures should generally be above normal in the West and Northeast and milder to cool in the Central. The cooler temperatures may only last a few days, with temperatures possibly rising in the Plains next weekend ahead of the next system.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...121 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW THU...32 AT AUSTIN, NV

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...ATLANTIC CITY, NJ 3.39 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the Southwest with another in eastern Canada. A pair of troughs are moving into the Central U.S., continuing through the weekend with a larger storm system. The Southwest ridge will get pushed off the West Coast and a trough will swing through the middle of the continent next week. The ridge will rebuild, but it will start in the South and work backward toward the West late next week and weekend. The general western ridge and eastern trough scenario looks like it may hold on through the rest of July.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A front may be stalled across the Southeast early week with scattered showers. Another system will move through the country around the middle of next week with more showers, which may have its front get stuck across the South and Southeast again as well. And we should probably see another system for next weekend. Temperatures should generally be above normal in the West and Northeast and milder to cool in the Central. The cooler temperatures may only last a few days, with temperatures possibly rising in the Plains next weekend ahead of the next system.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Showers have been frequent across the region lately, but being scattered they have missed some areas.

After showers move out on Friday, a few days break of mainly dry weather is forecast until another system moves through Monday through Wednesday. This system may have some more widespread precipitation and temperatures behind it will fall dramatically for a few days.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to pass through the region rather frequently for summer, while temperatures are generally seasonable. The rain continues to produce overall good conditions for corn and soybean as they head into pollination. Some much cooler temperatures are forecast behind one of the fronts mid-late next week, keeping overall stress low as well.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Another system will move through Friday through the weekend, and another will move through mid-late next week, keeping the region busy with scattered showers. Some areas that are a bit dry could pick up some needed rain while others stay unfavorably wet. Northern Illinois being one of those areas that saw favorable heavy rain on Thursday.

Temperatures remain generally mild to warm into next week but should fall below normal behind next week's system. Most areas are in good shape as corn and soybeans head into pollination.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Scattered showers from earlier this week have turned isolated, though they should continue into next week, aided by another front moving into the region. Some areas have had a chance to dry out a bit and maybe needed some rain, but others remain a bit too wet. The more isolated nature to the storms should promote overall drying but at a slow pace, which should actually be favorable for most areas.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WHEAT): Despite some good weather during the spring, dry conditions over the last several weeks have allowed drought to quickly develop this summer, sapping soil moisture and causing falling conditions for wheat.

The hot and dry conditions continue for the foreseeable future, which may be good now for the winter wheat harvest, but could have significant impacts for spring wheat that is just beginning to head.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): Some areas across Manitoba and Saskatchewan have missed out on recent rainfall and are in need of rain. A system is moving through on Friday with another on Sunday through Tuesday, but will bring scattered showers that may miss some of these drier areas. With wheat and canola in their reproductive stages, any areas that get missed by the rainfall will be hurt by the dryness. Temperatures will be much cooler behind the second system, keeping stresses down though.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Drier conditions over the last week or more have been favorable for the ongoing safrinha corn harvest and to drain some wet soils across the south from previous heavy rainfall. Drier conditions continue into next week with increasing temperatures. A front is likely to move through in the middle of next week with some showers across the south, though coverage and intensity are forecast to be low.

ARGENTINA (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Temperatures are rising above normal, and a pair of fronts could produce some meaningful and welcome showers for southern and central areas that could use some rain over the next several days.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system has stalled across the eastern half of the continent, bringing through scattered showers that will continue into early next week. Showers may disrupt the wheat harvest, but favor drier locations with some needed rainfall. A couple of weaker systems are forecast to move through western areas with limited rainfall next week. In between systems, increasing temperatures should spread through the continent again next week and generally stay above normal for much of the rest of July, causing stress to areas that are indeed drier.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system stalled over eastern Europe and is bringing showers to parts of Ukraine going into next week. But southwestern Russia will see very little precipitation as heat has been building this week.

That will be good for maturing and harvesting wheat, but not for vegetative corn and sunflowers as many areas have limited soil moisture and need some solid rains. Some rain from the system may spread into this area next week as the system moves on, but amounts and coverage are forecast to be low.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Drought continues to be a problem for much of the country despite some recent showers. Though wheat and canola are still vegetative over the winter, they will need some solid rain soon when the crops head toward reproductive stages in another month or so. Some rain will pass through over the next two weeks, but probably not enough to reverse the dry trend.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Though scattered showers will continue to fall across most of the country's primary growing areas, showers will miss important areas of the North China Plain. Some spots in the central could be too hot and dry and may have some issues with crop damage should this continue as forecast.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Scattered showers northwest. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday.

Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday, near normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Tuesday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Tuesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday-Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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