Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Continued good weather east of the Rockies, and areas of dryness in the Pacific Northwest, Canadian Prairies, Europe, the Black Sea region and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

TWO SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH MIDWEST WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS

Though showers and thunderstorms are occurring ahead of it, another system will move through the Midwest Friday through the weekend, and another will move through in the middle of next week, keeping the region busy with scattered showers. Some areas that are a bit dry could pick up some needed rain while others stay unfavorably wet. Temperatures remain generally mild to warm into next week but should fall below normal behind next week's system. Most areas are in good shape as corn and soybeans head into pollination, though northern Illinois and Indiana both need rain as the dry spots in the region.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to pass through the Central and Southern Plains frequently while temperatures are generally seasonable. The rain continues to produce overall good conditions for corn and soybean development. Multiple fronts are forecast to move into the region through next week, which will keep the region busier than normal for summer as corn and soybeans head into pollination. Some much cooler temperatures are forecast behind one of the fronts mid to late next week, keeping overall stress low as well.

NORTHERN PLAINS GETTING MULTIPLE SYSTEMS, BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS

Showers have been frequent across the Northern Plains lately, but being scattered they have missed some areas, including what happened on Wednesday as some severe storms rolled through. After showers move out on Friday, a few days break of mainly dry weather is forecast until another system moves through Tuesday and Wednesday. This system may have some more widespread precipitation and temperatures behind it will fall dramatically for a few days.

ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE DELTA

Scattered showers have been occurring in the Delta this week. Though they are becoming isolated, they should continue into next week, aided by another front moving into the region. Though some areas have had a chance to dry out a bit and maybe needed some rain, others remain a bit too wet. The more isolated nature to the storms should promote overall drying but at a slow pace.

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS BAKE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Despite some good weather during the spring, dry conditions over the last several weeks have allowed for drought to quickly develop this summer, sapping soil moisture and causing falling conditions for wheat. The hot and dry conditions continue for the foreseeable future, which may be good now for the winter wheat harvest, but could have significant impacts for spring wheat that is just beginning to head.

ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Some areas across Manitoba and Saskatchewan have missed out on recent rainfall and are in need of rain. A system will move through Thursday and Friday with another on Sunday through Tuesday, but will bring scattered showers that may miss some of these drier areas. With wheat and canola in their reproductive stages, any areas that get missed by the rainfall will be hurt by the dryness. Temperatures will be much cooler behind the second system, keeping stresses down though.

DRIER IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Drier conditions over the last week have been favorable for the ongoing safrinha corn harvest and to drain some wet soils across southern Brazil from previous heavy rainfall. Drier conditions continue into next week with increasing temperatures. A front is likely to move through in the middle of next week with some showers across the south, though coverage and intensity are forecast to be low.

SYSTEM STALLED OVER EASTERN EUROPE

A system has stalled across eastern Europe, bringing through a relief in temperatures and scattered showers that will continue into early next week. Showers may disrupt the wheat harvest, but favor drier locations with some needed rainfall. A couple of weaker systems are forecast to move through western areas with limited rainfall. In between systems, increasing temperatures should spread through the continent again next week and generally stay above normal for much of the rest of July, causing stress to areas that are indeed drier.

DRIER AND WARMER FOR EASTERN BLACK SEA REGION

A system stalled over eastern Europe and is bringing showers to parts of Ukraine going into next week. But southwestern Russia will see very little precipitation as heat has been building this week. That will be good for maturing and harvesting wheat, but not for vegetative corn and sunflowers as many areas have limited soil moisture and need some solid rains. Some rain from the system may spread into this area next week as the system moves on, but amounts and coverage are forecast to be low.

DROUGHT STILL A PROBLEM IN AUSTRALIA

Drought continues to be a problem for much of Australia despite some recent showers. Though wheat and canola are still vegetative over the winter, they will need some solid rain soon when the crops head toward reproductive stages in another month or so. Some rain will pass through over the next two weeks, but probably not enough to reverse the dry trend.

CENTRAL CHINA SEEING FEWER RAINFALL CHANCES

Though scattered showers will continue to fall across most of China's primary growing areas for the next couple of weeks, showers will miss important areas of the North China Plain. Some spots in the central could be too hot and dry and may have some issues with crop damage should this continue as forecast.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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