DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge developing in the Southwest with another moving into eastern Canada. A pair of troughs are moving through the Canadian Prairies and Pacific Northwest. Those two will move eastward together through the weekend and create a larger storm system.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The Southwest ridge will largely be maintained while disturbances cruise over the top of it and through the U.S. next week. This pattern likely remains through the end of July.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A front may be stalled across the South and Southeast early next week with scattered showers. Another system will move through around the middle of next week with more showers. And we should probably see another system for next weekend. Temperatures should generally be above normal in the West and Northeast and milder to cool in the Plains. That cooler air is likely to spread eastward behind the front next week through more of the country.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...123 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW WED...27 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...RICHMOND, VA 3.36 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge developing in the Southwest with another moving into eastern Canada. A pair of troughs are moving through the Canadian Prairies and Pacific Northwest. Those two will move eastward together through the weekend and create a larger storm system. The Southwest ridge will largely be maintained while disturbances cruise over the top of it and through the U.S. next week. This pattern likely remains through the end of July.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A front may be stalled across the South and Southeast early next week with scattered showers. Another system will move through around the middle of next week with more showers. And we should probably see another system for next weekend. Temperatures should generally be above normal in the West and Northeast and milder to cool in the Plains. That cooler air is likely to spread eastward behind the front next week through more of the country.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Showers have been frequent across the region lately, but being scattered they have missed some areas, including what happened on Wednesday as some severe storms rolled through.

After showers move out on Friday, a few days break of mainly dry weather is forecast until another system moves through Tuesday and Wednesday. This system may have some more widepsread precipitation and temperatures behind it will fall dramatically for a few days.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to pass through the region frequently while temperatures are generally seasonable. The rain continues to produce overall good conditions for corn and soybean development. Multiple fronts are forecast to move into the region through next week, which will keep the region busier than normal for summer as corn and soybeans head into pollination. Some much cooler temperatures are forecast behind one of the fronts mid-late next week, keeping overall stress low as well.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Though showers and thunderstorms are occurring ahead of it, another system will move through Friday through the weekend, and another will move through in the middle of next week, keeping the region busy with scattered showers. Some areas that are a bit dry could pick up some needed rain while others stay unfavorably wet.

Temperatures remain generally mild to warm into next week but should fall below normal behind next week's system. Most areas are in good shape as corn and soybeans head into pollination, though northern Illinois and Indiana both need rain as the dry spots in the region.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Scattered showers have been occurring this week. Though they are becoming isolated, they should continue into next week, aided by another front moving into the region.

Though some areas have had a chance to dry out a bit and maybe needed some rain, others remain a bit too wet. The more isolated nature to the storms should promote overall drying but at a slow pace.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): Some areas across Manitoba and Saskatchewan have missed out on recent rainfall and are in need of rain. A system will move Thursday and Friday with another on Sunday through Tuesday, but will bring scattered showers that may miss some of these drier areas. With wheat and canola in their reproductive stages, any areas that get missed by the rainfall will be hurt by the dryness. Temperatures will be much cooler behind the second system, keeping stresses down though.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Drier conditions over the last week have been favorable for the ongoing safrinha corn harvest and to drain some wet soils across the south from previous heavy rainfall. Drier conditions continue into next week with increasing temperatures. A front is likely to move through in the middle of next week with some showers across the south, though coverage and intensity are forecast to be low.

ARGENTINA (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Temperatures are rising above normal, and a pair of fronts could produce some meaningful and welcome showers for southern and central areas that could use some rain over the next several days.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system has stalled across the eastern half of the continent, bringing through a relief in temperatures and scattered showers that will continue into early next week. Showers may disrupt the wheat harvest, but favor drier locations with some needed rainfall. A couple of weaker systems are forecast to move through western areas with limited rainfall. In between systems, increasing temperatures should spread through the continent again next week and generally stay above normal for much of the rest of July, causing stress to areas that are indeed drier.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system stalled over eastern Europe and is bringing showers to parts of Ukraine going into next week. But southwestern Russia will see very little precipitation as heat has been building this week.

That will be good for maturing and harvesting wheat, but not for vegetative corn and sunflowers as many areas have limited soil moisture and need some solid rains. Some rain from the system may spread into this area next week as the system moves on, but amounts and coverage are forecast to be low.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Drought continues to be a problem for much of the country despite some recent showers. Though wheat and canola are still vegetative over the winter, they will need some solid rain soon when the crops head toward reproductive stages in another month or so. Some rain will pass through over the next two weeks, but probably not enough to reverse the dry trend.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Though scattered showers will continue to fall across most of the country's primary growing areas, showers will miss important areas of the North China Plain. Some spots in the central could be too hot and dry and may have some issues with crop damage should this continue as forecast.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers overnight. Temperatures near normal.

East: Isolated showers east. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday.

Temperatures near to above normal Thursday-Friday, near normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Monday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Saturday.

Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures near normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday-Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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