DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge developing in the Southwest with an extension in the Canadian Prairies. A trough is located across the Midwest while a pair of troughs are moving into northern California and western Canada. Those two will move eastward together later this week and weekend and create a larger storm system.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The Southwest ridge will largely be maintained while disturbances cruise over the top of it and through the U.S. going through next week.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A front may be stalled across the South and Southeast early next week with scattered showers. Another system will move through around the middle of next week with more showers. And we should probably see another system for next weekend. Temperatures should generally be above normal in the West and Northeast and milder in the Plains. That cooler air is likely to spread behind the front next week through more of the country.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...119 AT STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA

LOW TUE...26 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...FORT SMITH, AR 2.89 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge developing in the Southwest with an extension in the Canadian Prairies. A trough is located across the Midwest while a pair of troughs are moving into northern California and western Canada. Those two will move eastward together later this week and weekend and create a larger storm system. The Southwest ridge will largely be maintained while disturbances cruise over the top of it and through the U.S. going through next week.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A front may be stalled across the South and Southeast early next week with scattered showers. Another system will move through around the middle of next week with more showers. And we should probably see another system for next weekend. Temperatures should generally be above normal in the West and Northeast and milder in the Plains. That cooler air is likely to spread behind the front next week through more of the country.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Showers have been frequent across the region lately, but being scattered they have missed some areas.

Several disturbances and systems will move through this week and next, which keeps the region active. Only scattered showers are being forecast and areas of heavy rain will be contained to thunderstorms that develop. Some severe weather should be expected as well.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to pass through the region going through next week while temperatures are generally seasonable. The rain may have delayed some of the remaining winter wheat harvest, but it continues to produce overall good conditions for corn and soybean development. Multiple fronts are forecast to move through this week and next, which will keep the region busier than normal for summer as corn and soybeans head into pollination.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system continues across eastern portions of the region on Wednesday, another will move through Friday through the weekend, and another will move through next week, keeping the region very busy. Some areas that are a bit dry could pick up some needed rain while others stay unfavorably wet. Temperatures remain generally mild to warm into next week but should fall below normal behind next week's system. Most areas are in good shape as corn and soybeans head into pollination.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): A front settling into northern areas and moisture increasing northward from the Gulf are produce scattered showers for most of the week. Another front is forecast to settle into the area for a few days this weekend into next week. Though some areas have had a chance to dry out a bit, the coming rainfall is going to keep some areas too wet.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): Some areas across Manitoba and Saskatchewan have missed out on recent rainfall and are in need of rain. A couple of disturbances will move through this week and next, but will bring scattered showers that may miss some areas. The models have reversed a trend for heavier rain across eastern areas later this week and now only show limited showers, unfavorable as wheat and canola are in their reproductive stages.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Drier conditions over the last week have been favorable for the ongoing safrinha corn harvest and to drain some wet soils across the south from previous rainfall. Recent colder temperatures have also meant frost across some southern areas, which likely did not have an impact on maturing corn or vegetative wheat, but may have for specialty crops. Drier conditions continue this week with increasing temperatures.

ARGENTINA (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Temperatures will rise above normal this week, and a pair of fronts could produce some meaningful and welcome showers for southern and central areas that could use some rain.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system has moved into the east and stalled, bringing through a relief in temperatures after a couple of very hot weeks.

Showers should continue over the eastern half of the continent into next week, disrupting the wheat harvest, but favoring drier locations with some needed rainfall. Western areas are more at risk with limited rainfall and increasing temperatures that should spread through the continent again next week.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system is stalling over eastern Europe and is bringing showers to parts of Ukraine going into next week. But southwestern Russia will see very little precipitation with heat building. That will be good for maturing and harvesting wheat, but not for vegetative corn and sunflowers as many areas have limited soil moisture and need some solid rains.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Drought continues to be a problem for much of the country despite some recent showers. Though wheat and canola are still vegetative over the winter, they will need some solid rain soon when the crops head toward reproductive stages in another month or so. Some rain will pass through over the next two weeks, but probably not enough to reverse the dry trend.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Though scattered showers will continue to fall across most of the country's primary growing areas, showers will miss important areas of the North China Plain. A couple of tropical storms could bring some heavy and flooding rain for the south this week as well. Some spots in the central could be too hot and dry and may have some issues with crop damage should this continue.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures near normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday.

Temperatures near normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday, near normal Saturday-Sunday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Sunday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures near normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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