Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Continued active weather across the U.S., and patches of dryness in the Pacific Northwest, Canadian Prairies, Europe, the Black Sea region, and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH MIDWEST THROUGH NEXT WEEK

A system continues across eastern portions of the Midwest on Wednesday, another will move through Friday through the weekend, and another will move through next week, keeping the region very busy. Some areas that are a bit dry could pick up some needed rain, while others stay unfavorably wet. Temperatures remain generally mild to warm into next week but should fall below normal behind next week's system. Most areas are in good shape as corn and soybeans head into pollination.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to pass through the Central and Southern Plains going through next week while temperatures are generally seasonable. The rain may have delayed some of the remaining winter wheat harvest, but it continues to produce overall good conditions for corn and soybean development. Multiple fronts are forecast to move through this week and next, which will keep the region busier than normal for summer as corn and soybeans head into pollination.

NORTHERN PLAINS GETTING MULTIPLE SYSTEMS, BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS

Showers have been frequent across the Northern Plains lately, but being scattered, they have missed some areas and left them dry. Several disturbances and systems will move through this week and next, which keeps the region active. Only scattered showers are being forecast, and areas of heavy rain will be contained to thunderstorms that develop. Some severe weather should be expected as well.

SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE DELTA

A front settling into the northern Delta and moisture increasing northward from the Gulf are producing scattered showers for most of the week. Another front is forecast to settle into the area for a few days this weekend into next week. Though some areas have had a chance to dry out a bit, the coming rainfall is going to keep some areas too wet.

HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS BAKE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Despite some good weather during the spring, dry conditions over the last several weeks have allowed for drought to quickly develop this summer, sapping soil moisture and causing falling conditions for wheat. The hot and dry conditions continue for the foreseeable future, which may be good now for the winter wheat harvest, but could have significant impacts for spring wheat that is just beginning to head.

ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Some areas across Manitoba and Saskatchewan have missed out on recent rainfall and are in need of rain. A couple of disturbances will move through this week and next, but will bring scattered showers that may miss some areas. The models have reversed a trend for heavier rain across eastern areas later this week and now only show limited showers, unfavorable as wheat and canola are in their reproductive stages.

DRIER IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Drier conditions over the last week have been favorable for the ongoing safrinha corn harvest in Brazil and for draining some wet soils across the south from previous rainfall. Recent colder temperatures have also meant frost across some southern areas, which likely did not have an impact on maturing corn or vegetative wheat, but may have for specialty crops. Drier conditions continue this week with increasing temperatures.

SYSTEM STALLED OVER EASTERN EUROPE

A system has moved into eastern Europe and stalled, bringing relief in temperatures after a couple of very hot weeks. Showers should continue over the eastern half of the continent into next week, disrupting the wheat harvest, but favoring drier locations with some needed rainfall. Western areas are more at risk with limited rainfall and increasing temperatures that should spread through the continent again next week.

DRIER AND WARMER FOR EASTERN BLACK SEA REGION

A system is stalling over eastern Europe and is bringing showers to parts of Ukraine going into next week. But southwestern Russia will see very little precipitation with heat building. That will be good for maturing and harvesting wheat, but not for vegetative corn and sunflowers, as many areas have limited soil moisture and need some solid rains.

DROUGHT STILL A PROBLEM IN AUSTRALIA

Drought continues to be a problem for much of Australia despite some recent showers. Though wheat and canola are still vegetative over the winter, they will need some solid rain soon when the crops head toward reproductive stages in another month or so. Some rain will pass through over the next two weeks, but probably not enough to reverse the dry trend.

CENTRAL CHINA SEEING OCCASIONAL RAINFALL CHANCES

Though scattered showers will continue to fall across most of China's primary growing areas, showers will miss important areas of the North China Plain. A couple of tropical storms could bring some heavy and flooding rain for the south this week as well. Some spots in the central area could be too hot and dry and may have some issues with crop damage should this continue.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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