DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge developing from the Southwest into western Canada with a trough in the Central. A pair of troughs in the Southwest and Gulf of Alaska will move eastward together later this week and weekend and create a larger storm system.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The ridge across the Southwest will be maintained while disturbances cruise over the top of it and through the U.S. going through next week.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A front will continue to sweep south and east through the country Sunday into early next week with scattered showers. Another system will move through around the middle of next week with more showers. And we should probably see another system for next weekend. Temperatures should generally be above normal in the West and milder in the Plains with temperatures rising and falling as systems pass through other areas of the country. Models are currently very warm across the Midwest and Northeast, though.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...118 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW MON...26 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...MIAMI BEACH, FL 1.14 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge developing from the Southwest into western Canada with a trough in the Central. A pair of troughs in the Southwest and Gulf of Alaska will move eastward together later this week and weekend and create a larger storm system. The ridge across the Southwest will be maintained while disturbances cruise over the top of it and through the U.S. going through next week.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend, but favor the European.

A front will continue to sweep south and east through the country Sunday into early next week with scattered showers. Another system will move through around the middle of next week with more showers. And we should probably see another system for next weekend. Temperatures should generally be above normal in the West and milder in the Plains with temperatures rising and falling as systems pass through other areas of the country. Models are currently very warm across the Midwest and Northeast, though.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Showers have been frequent across the region lately, but being scattered they have missed some areas.

Several disturbances and systems will move through this week and next, which keeps the region active. Only scattered showers are being forecast and areas of heavy rain will be contained to thunderstorms that develop. Some severe weather should be expected as well.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to pass through the region going through next week while temperatures are generally seasonable. The rain may have delayed some of the remaining winter wheat harvest, but it continues to produce overall good conditions for corn and soybean development. Multiple fronts are forecast to move through this week and next, which will keep the region busier than normal for summer as corn and soybeans head into pollination.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system will slowly move through the region through Wednesday, another will move through Friday and Saturday, and more are forecast to move through next week, keeping the region very busy. Some areas that are a bit dry could pick up some needed rain while others stay unfavorably wet. Temperatures remain generally mild to warm through next week but could trend warmer thereafter. Still, most areas are in good shape as corn and soybeans head into pollination.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): A front settling into northern areas and moisture increasing northward from the Gulf will produce scattered showers for most of the week. Though some areas have had a chance to dry out a bit, the coming rainfall is going to keep some areas too wet.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): Some areas across Manitoba and Saskatchewan have missed out on recent rainfall and are in need of rain. A couple of disturbances will move through this week and next, but will bring scattered showers that may miss some areas. The models have reversed a trend for heavier rain across eastern areas later this week and now only show limited showers, unfavorable as wheat and canola are in their reproductive stages.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Drier conditions over the last week have been favorable for the ongoing safrinha corn harvest and to drain some wet soils across the south from previous rainfall. Colder temperatures have also meant frost across some southern areas, which likely did not have an impact on maturing corn or vegetative wheat, but may have for specialty crops. Drier conditions continue this week with increasing temperatures.

ARGENTINA (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Cold temperatures again produced frosts and freezes over the weekend. Even so, no damage should be expected for mature corn that is still in the midst of harvest, or winter wheat that is just being established. Temperatures will rise above normal this week, but a pair of fronts could produce some meaningful and welcome showers for southern and central areas that could use some rain.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system will continue eastward with showers over the next day or two, bringing through a relief in temperatures after a couple of very hot weeks. The system is likely to stall out in the east and continue showers there into next week. Many areas have been very hot and dry, which has been favorable for maturing and harvest of winter wheat. But other areas need the rain for spring-sewn crops that may be heading into pollination. Western areas are more at risk with limited rainfall and increasing temperatures again later this week.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Some isolated showers moved through over the weekend, but many areas stayed dry. A system over Europe will stall over the east and bring showers to Ukraine going into next week. But southwestern Russia will see very little precipitation with heat building. That will be good for maturing and harvesting wheat, but not for vegetative corn and sunflowers as many areas have limited soil moisture and need some solid rains.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Drought continues to be a problem for much of the country despite some recent showers. Though wheat and canola are still vegetative over the winter, they will need some solid rain soon when the crops head toward reproductive stages in another month or so. Some rain will pass through over the next two weeks, but probably not enough to reverse the dry trend.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Some showers went through portions of the central and northeast over the weekend, favorable for developing corn and soybeans, but possibly stalling the wheat and canola harvest. Showers will miss important areas of the North China Plain this week, though showers will probably fall just about everywhere else. A couple of tropical storms could bring some heavy and flooding rain for the south this week as well. Some spots in the central could be too hot and dry and may have some issues with crop damage should this continue.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday.

Temperatures near normal through Saturday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.

Temperatures near to above normal Sunday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.

Temperatures near to below normal Sunday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures near normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures near normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Saturday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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