Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Continued active weather across the U.S., and patches of dryness in the Canadian Prairies, Europe, the Black Sea region, and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH MIDWEST THROUGH NEXT WEEK

A system will slowly move through the Midwest through Wednesday, another will move through Friday and Saturday, and more are forecast to move through next week, keeping the region very busy. Some areas that are a bit dry could pick up some needed rain while others stay unfavorably wet. Temperatures remain generally mild to warm through next week but could trend warmer thereafter. Still, most areas are in good shape as corn and soybeans head into pollination.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to pass through the Central and Southern Plains going through next week while temperatures are generally seasonable. The rain may have delayed some of the remaining winter wheat harvest, but it continues to produce overall good conditions for corn and soybean development. Multiple fronts are forecast to move through this week and next, which will keep the region busier than normal for summer as corn and soybeans head into pollination.

NORTHERN PLAINS GETTING MULTIPLE SYSTEMS, BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS

Showers have been frequent across the Northern Plains lately, but being scattered they have missed some areas. Several disturbances and systems will move through this week and next, which keeps the region active. Only scattered showers are being forecast and areas of heavy rain will be contained to thunderstorms that develop. Some severe weather should be expected as well.

SHOWERS INCREASING IN THE DELTA

A front settling into the northern Delta and moisture increasing northward from the Gulf will produce scattered showers for most of the week. Though some areas have had a chance to dry out a bit, the coming rainfall is going to keep some areas too wet.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Some areas across Manitoba and Saskatchewan have missed out on recent rainfall and are in need of rain. A couple of disturbances will move through this week and next, but will bring scattered showers that may miss some areas. The models have reversed a trend for heavier rain across eastern areas later this week and now only show limited showers, unfavorable as wheat and canola are in their reproductive stages.

DRIER IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Drier conditions over the last week have been favorable for the ongoing safrinha corn harvest in Brazil, and to drain some wet soils across the south from previous rainfall. Colder temperatures have also meant frost across some southern areas, which likely did not have an impact on maturing corn or vegetative wheat, but may have for specialty crops. Drier conditions continue this week with increasing temperatures.

RAIN SPREADING THROUGH EUROPE

A system will continue eastward through Europe with showers over the next day or two, bringing through a relief in temperatures after a couple of very hot weeks. The system is likely to stall out in the east and continue showers there into next week. Many areas have been very hot and dry, which has been favorable for maturing and harvest of winter wheat. But other areas need the rain for spring-sewn crops that may be heading into pollination. Western areas are more at risk with limited rainfall and increasing temperatures again later this week.

DRIER AND WARMER FOR EASTERN BLACK SEA REGION

Some isolated showers moved through the Black Sea region over the weekend, but many areas stayed dry. A system over Europe will stall over the east and bring showers to Ukraine going into next week. But southwestern Russia will see very little precipitation with heat building. That will be good for maturing and harvesting wheat, but not for vegetative corn and sunflowers as many areas have limited soil moisture and need some solid rains.

DROUGHT STILL A PROBLEM IN AUSTRALIA

Drought continues to be a problem for much of Australia despite some recent showers. Though wheat and canola are still vegetative over the winter, they will need some solid rain soon when the crops head toward reproductive stages in another month or so. Some rain will pass through over the next two weeks, but probably not enough to reverse the dry trend.

CENTRAL CHINA SEEING OCCASIONAL RAINFALL CHANCES

Some showers went through portions of central and northeast China over the weekend, favorable for developing corn and soybeans, but possibly stalling the wheat and canola harvest. Showers will miss important areas of the North China Plain this week, though showers will probably fall just about everywhere else. A couple of tropical storms could bring some heavy and flooding rain for the south this week as well. Some spots in the central could be too hot and dry and may have some issues with crop damage should this continue.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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