Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Another system later this week and more for next week across the U.S., and patches of dryness in the Canadian Prairies, Europe, the Black Sea region, and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

QUIETER COUPLE OF DAYS IN MIDWEST, ANOTHER SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND

Limited northern showers and increasing temperatures are expected in the Midwest for the next few days. The drier trend will not last though as another system moves through over the weekend with a very slow-moving front likely to linger into next week. Another system is likely to move through in the middle of next week and another disturbance probably moves through over the weekend. Overall, mostly favorable conditions continue in many areas, though there is a mixture of wetter and drier areas throughout the region.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Wetness is still an issue for winter wheat harvest in some areas of the Central and Southern Plains, though the rainfall has been largely favorable for corn and soybean development where severe weather and flooding have not occurred. A front is stalled near the Red River, where showers continue for the next couple of days as well as farther south throughout Texas. Another system will move into the region on Friday with more widespread showers and thunderstorms likely into next week. Additional disturbances will follow it with more showers and storms likely as well.

SYSTEM MOVING INTO NORTHERN PLAINS LATER THIS WEEK

Isolated showers will be possible over the next couple of days in the Northern Plains. A system will move into the region on Thursday night and is likely to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms for Friday and Saturday. Overall, active weather continues next week as well with multiple disturbances moving through. Though some drought exists and more rain is needed, precipitation is generally coming at a good pace for the region, with drought concerns likely to ebb and flow between which areas get hit and which get missed over the next few weeks.

DELTA WATCHING GULF FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL STORM

A front pushed through the Delta on Tuesday, though the tail end of it may bring isolated showers into the region for the next several days. We will also have to watch the potential for a tropical storm to develop in the Gulf later this weekend; a feature not captured well by models. Another front is likely to slide into the region early next week with more rainfall. Many areas are still wet and in need of some drier weather, but that has been hard to come by. That could continue to have a negative effect on crop conditions.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Several more systems and disturbances are forecast to move through the Canadian Prairies through next week, but will only bring through scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms, causing many areas to be missed. If that is for those across the south and east, that could be a larger concern for developing to reproductive wheat and canola.

COLD IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Some areas in southern Brazil have had a lot of rain over the last few weeks with fronts somewhat stalling or moving through at a frequent pace. Those fronts have also brought through some significantly cold air as well, producing areas of frost. Corn is mostly mature with harvest increasing and frost has likely not been much of a concern for winter wheat in the south either. But specialty crops will have taken on some damage from last week. Colder temperatures this week should be south of the main specialty crop areas. Generally dry conditions are expected through next week, allowing some wet areas to recover.

HOTTER, DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN EUROPE, CHANGES COMING THIS WEEKEND

Hotter and drier conditions over the last two weeks have been favorable for dry down of winter crops and harvest in Europe, but are stressing some of the drier corn areas scattered throughout the continent. A system will move through northern areas Wednesday and Thursday with some showers along its front. But a bigger system is forecast for this weekend into next week with more widespread showers, at least for northern areas. This system should also bring in more seasonable temperatures. Though the rainfall will be welcomed, much more will be needed for spring-sewn crops.

BLACK SEA REGION CONTINUES TO HAVE LIMITED SHOWERS

Areas of isolated showers continue in the Black Sea region this week, mostly in southwestern Russia. Systems moving through Europe are likely to produce more showers for western areas next week. With winter wheat maturing, drier conditions would be preferred for harvest, though corn and sunflower areas would enjoy more rainfall as soil moisture is still low in many areas.

AUSTRALIA IS STILL VERY DRY

Many areas in Australia remain too dry as winter wheat and canola try to build roots over the winter. A system off the East Coast produced much of its rainfall over coastal areas and not the inland wheat belt. Several systems will move through the country over the next couple of weeks. Models have been increasing the forecast rainfall, and that will be critical as wheat and canola get into their reproductive stages in the next month or two.

CENTRAL CHINA SEEING BETTER RAINFALL

The pattern stays active in central China with more areas of showers and thunderstorms throughout the week and possibly into next week. That should improve conditions for developing corn and soybeans. Overall favorable conditions are found elsewhere throughout the country.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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