Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A sweeping cold front moving through the U.S. and patches of dryness in the Black Sea region, China, and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

MORE SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST

A stalled front that brought areas of heavy rain in the northwestern Midwest over the last few days is on the move, getting into southern areas for Friday and Saturday. That should help to ease temperatures several degrees. Another front will sweep through the region Sunday and Monday, likely with widespread showers. Southern areas have had a chance to dry out a bit but will now see rain again. More rain in the short-term forecast could be unwanted by some, though others that did get to dry out may enjoy some rainfall coming through. Additional rainfall is likely later next week and weekend with a couple of systems moving through.

MORE RAINFALL FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A stalled front produced heavy, flooding rain in parts of Nebraska on Wednesday where a stripe in the middle of the state saw two months-worth of rainfall. The front is moving south where showers will be less heavy through the weekend. Another front will go sweeping through the region this weekend into early next week and could stall near the Red River, providing for more showers for areas that don't need it and are trying to harvest wheat. Areas of scattered showers are likely to continue across much of the region for a while yet, which will keep temperatures from becoming too extreme. That should help developing corn and soybeans, but could be burdensome for wheat harvest.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS, SEVERE STORMS IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms have been moving through the Northern Plains this week, hitting some areas with needed rainfall. Showers and thunderstorms continue to move across the region through the weekend, which may produce severe weather. A couple of systems providing additional showers and thunderstorms around the middle and end of next week will keep the pattern fairly busy. That could produce more meaningful rainfall to some areas, though others are likely to get missed with clusters of storms moving through. Drought coverage is still scattered and could ebb and flow with the scattered nature of the upcoming rainfall.

DELTA HOPING FRONT DOES NOT STALL NEXT WEEK

Flow coming north from the Gulf has been and will continue to produce isolated showers in the Delta through the weekend. While most areas have seen drier conditions that would help to drain soils and promote growth, some areas could see heavy downpours. A front will move into the region early next week and if it stalls, could produce more heavy rainfall potential. That is uncertain. Otherwise, drier conditions are starting to take over, allowing overly wet soils to drain. That could cause some topsoil to get too dry and actually need some rainfall, though.

SCATTERED RAINFALL FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Another system will move across the Canadian Prairies through the weekend that will produce widespread precipitation after disturbances ahead of it have been producing limited showers this week. But even with this system, showers are coming via thunderstorm clusters that have a tendency on missing some areas. Even so, the rain that does fall will certainly be useful. More systems are slated to move through later next week and weekend and at least continue chances for rain. But in the absence of showers, temperatures are likely to increase next week and could be stressful, especially west.

RECENT FROSTS IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL MAY HAVE CAUSED DAMAGE

Cold air that moved into southern Brazil produced frosts as far north as Sao Paulo earlier this week, which may have damaged specialty crops in the area. Corn that saw frost was mostly mature and not likely damaged by it. Another front has moved into the south and will stay active through the weekend. More cold air will move in behind it for next week, but is not currently forecast to move very far north to have much of an impact as of the current forecast.

HEAT CONTINUING IN EUROPE

Hotter and drier conditions over the past ten days have been largely favorable for dry down of winter crops and harvest in Europe, but have stressed some of the drier corn areas scattered throughout the continent. A system passed through earlier this week with showers across the north, and another did so on Thursday. But temperatures are largely forecast to stay above normal through most of next week and on some days, be extremely hot. Any areas that are dry or miss out on the showers this week could see additional stress developing. Rain does not look to return until later next week and may not be very widespread either.

ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA REGION THROUGH WEEKEND

Waves of isolated showers have been moving through the Black Sea region over the last couple of weeks and continue through the weekend before going on another dry stretch. The rain is helping some lucky areas that get hit while others remain too dry. Wheat areas are too late to find much benefit in rainfall as the crop goes further into maturity and harvest begins, but corn areas are still in need of a lot of rain. Cooler temperatures in the area could help to reduce the stress, though.

DRIER ACROSS AUSTRALIA

Many areas in Australia remain too dry as winter wheat and canola try to build roots over the winter. Drier conditions are likely for a while, with only limited showers moving through at times over the next two weeks. Much more rain is needed, but will be more critical in another month or two as wheat gets into its reproductive stages.

BETTER RAINFALL FORECAST FOR CENTRAL CHINA

Central China is still in need of rainfall while other areas of the country are doing fine for soil moisture. A system moved through there on Thursday with scattered showers on the North China Plain. The forecast is calling for multiple systems to bring frequent showers this weekend through next week which would certainly be helpful for developing corn and soybeans.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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