Ag Weather Forum

Multiple fronts, disturbances and systems have combined to keep widespread rainfall going through most areas east of the Rockies in June 2025. That was not the anticipation for the month. So how long can this keep going? And will the DTN forecast for hotter and drier conditions start showing up soon?

History has not been on the side of forecasters thus far this summer. The top analog years of 2012, 2021, 2006, and 2001 that DTN had continually used for its seasonal forecast have not been good indications of the weather conditions that have occurred so far. These four years were all different in how June shaped up, but they all had areas of heat and dryness east of the Rockies. June 2025 has not been nearly as dry.

When taking into consideration the upcoming rain forecast for the rest of the month, very few areas will be facing monthly deficits, which will be scattered throughout the Northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest. And if this dome of heat that has parked itself in the eastern half of the country did not occur, very few areas would have been looking at above-normal temperatures for the month. They would have been much closer to normal. But we cannot subtract that out, so areas east of the Mississippi River will end up with above-normal temperatures for the month.

However, the four analogs had one thing in common -- Plains heat. It wasn't consistent or in the same areas and the same strength, but they all showed consistent signals for the month of June being above normal in the region. Outside of a short stretch this past weekend, temperatures have been near or even slightly below normal in some spots. Heat has been fleeting and has contrasted with milder conditions. Sometimes that has been due to clouds and rain, other times from fronts moving down from Canada. The year 2025 is currently standing on its own with no good analog.

But that isn't a total surprise. Every year is going to be different in some way, shape, or form. Though past years can give us clues as to what the setup might be for the upcoming season, it cannot give us the specifics. Where the analogs have gotten us offtrack though, has been with the pattern. These analogs suggested a more stagnant weather pattern; but 2025 has been active. And that active pattern continues to be in the forecast for the foreseeable future.

Though the pattern may start to slow down a bit as we get into July, particularly across the Southern Plains, systems and disturbances still look to continue across the north. Streaky precipitation should be the result, which may produce a lot of haves and have-nots for the Corn Belt. We could start to see some areas getting drier and not recovering. Drought could start to build. And the Southern Plains, which has been very wet so far this growing season, could quickly turn toward drought expansion and flash drought, when drought develops suddenly after extended weeks of hot and dry weather.

Fronts to these systems generally go through the Ohio Valley or Southeast to stall out and can continue to produce rain in these areas and into the East Coast, where long-range models are continuing to produce ample rainfall for the month of July.

But what is interesting is the temperature forecast. Active weather for the first half of the month does not allow for much of the country to be in a consistent temperature pattern. Ridges build and fade, troughs come and go, and periods of precipitation usually mean that temperatures will be rather up-and-down for a while yet. Deeper into July, models start to build the heat across the Plains. And with the streakier precipitation, would mean a drying out for the middle of the country. But we have seen this play out before. Several months ago, models had this potentially starting in May. But when we got closer to that time, models pushed it off into June, then late June, then mid-July, and now late July. The proverbial can has been kicked down the road often. How long can this continue to occur? Well, with no blocking upper-level ridges taking over the middle of the country, models could continue to do so forever.

It will take a setup to produce one of these heat ridges in the Rockies and Plains to start to change things. One tried to do so late last week, but it quickly shifted to the eastern half of the country. These areas were too wet for the pattern to really build momentum to an overall hot and dry scenario. That will have to be accomplished in the Plains, where topsoil moisture is much lower and winds are generally stronger, allowing for more transport of heat through more of the region for longer periods of time. But until we see this ridge developing, expect a fairly active and up-and-down pattern to persist with only localized areas of drought developing where streaks of precipitation miss.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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