DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the East with a trough in the Southwest and another in Alaska. The heat ridge is weakening but will stick around for much of the week.

The southwestern trough will move into the ridge over the next couple of days and help to weaken it further. Part of the Alaskan trough will move into western Canada Friday and Saturday and then eastward early next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

With a ridge will develop in the West early next week, the pattern will be flipped for a few days next week before a more progressive pattern takes back over the country, at least for the north.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A front will push through most of the country early next week with scattered showers and thunderstorms. The front may get stuck in the southern U.S. again where we will have to watch for potential heavy rainfall. Temperatures behind the front should be much milder, though heat could build across the Northern Plains later next week. Another system will move more like a clipper from the Northern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic later next week and weekend, likely with some areas of heavy rainfall through the Corn Belt.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...107 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW TUE...17 AT 14 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MACKAY, ID

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...JACKSON, MS 1.04 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge in the East with a trough in the Southwest and another in Alaska. The heat ridge is weakening but will stick around for much of the week.

The southwestern trough will move into the ridge over the next couple of days and help to weaken it further. Part of the Alaskan trough will move into western Canada Friday and Saturday and then eastward early next week. A ridge will develop behind it in the West, flipping the pattern though likely only for a few days.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A front will push through most of the country early next week with scattered showers and thunderstorms. The front may get stuck in the southern U.S. again where we will have to watch for potential heavy rainfall. Temperatures behind the front should be much milder, though heat could build across the Northern Plains later next week. Another system will move more like a clipper from the Northern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic later next week and weekend, likely with some areas of heavy rainfall through the Corn Belt.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Recent severe weather in North Dakota has produced substantial damage. But there was also meaningful rainfall in some drier areas, especially in Montana where drought has been the most intense in the region. Periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to move through the region through the weekend and could produce more meaningful rainfall while some areas get missed.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front remains stalled in the region with some heavy rain that has already occurred across northern areas. The main impacts to the front will push south and east for Thursday and Friday after these areas have gotten a chance to dry out a bit.

Another front will go sweeping through the region this weekend into early next week with more showers and we could see it stall across Texas for a few days as well. Rainfall continues to be largely favorable for corn, soybeans, and other spring-sewn crops, but is having a negative impact on some wheat areas that are in the midst of harvest that has been delayed.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front continues to be stuck across the north where showers and thunderstorms have been concentrated and some areas of heavy rain have fallen so far this week. The front continues to produce showers for Wednesday and Thursday, before getting pushed southward by a system moving along it for Friday and Saturday. That should help to ease temperatures several degrees. And then another front will sweep through the region Sunday and Monday, likely with widespread showers. Southern areas have seen some spotty showers, but many areas have had a chance to dry out a bit.

The combination of heat and soil moisture should improve growth for many in the region. More rain in the short-term forecast could be unwanted by some, though others that did get to dry out may enjoy some rainfall coming through.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Flow coming north from the Gulf has been and will continue to produce isolated showers throughout the week. While most areas will see drier conditions that would help to drain soils and promote growth, some areas could see heavy downpours. A front will move into the region early next week and if it stalls, could produce more heavy rainfall potential.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): Another system will move through Friday and Saturday that could produce more widespread precipitation after disturbances ahead of it have been producing limited showers. But even with these systems, showers should come via thunderstorm clusters that have a tendency on missing some areas. Even so, the rain that does fall will certainly be useful.

Temperatures were cold this weekend behind the system and some patchy frost likely occurred in parts of Alberta, which continued on Monday and Tuesday mornings as well. Some limited damage may have occurred.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A front pushed northward on Monday into much of central Brazil, producing unnecessary rainfall for safrinha corn that is maturing and in the midst of harvest. Temperatures behind the front are cold for the next few days and some frosts will be possible across the south. That is unlikely to have much of an effect on either corn that is awaiting harvest or winter wheat development, which can handle early morning frosts without damage. Frosts may be possible in south-central Brazil's specialty crops of citrus, coffee, and sugarcane though, which could have an impact.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Colder temperatures are producing widespread frosts and freezes for at least the next week, but have no significant impact on the remaining corn and soybean harvests or winter wheat establishment. Though drier conditions will continue to promote harvest, rainfall is needed for winter wheat establishment.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Hotter and drier conditions over the past week have been largely favorable for dry down of winter crops and harvest, but have stressed some of the drier corn areas scattered throughout the continent. A system passed through Sunday and Monday with showers across the north, and another will do so for Wednesday and Thursday, but temperatures are largely forecast to stay above normal through most of next week and on some days, be extremely hot. Any areas that are dry or miss out on the showers this week could see additional stress developing.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Waves of isolated showers have been moving through over the last couple of weeks and continue through the weekend before going on another dry stretch. The rain is helping some lucky areas that get hit while others remain too dry. Wheat areas are too late to find much benefit in rainfall as the crop goes further toward or into maturity, but corn areas are still in need of a lot of rain. Cooler temperatures in the area could help to reduce the stress, though.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Many areas remain too dry as winter wheat and canola try to build roots over the winter. A front moving through the west brought some helpful rainfall Friday and Saturday, but produced only spotty areas of rain in the drier east on Monday and Tuesday. Drier conditions are likely for a while, with only limited showers moving through at times. Much more rain is needed, but will be more critical in another month or two as wheat gets into its reproductive stages.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Central China is still in need of rainfall while other areas of the country are doing fine for soil moisture. A system will come through Wednesday and Thursday with scattered showers on the North China Plain, which will slow the wheat and canola harvest some, but would be beneficial for corn and soybean development. The forecast has turned more active with systems becoming more frequent this weekend through next week which would certainly be helpful for developing corn and soybeans.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, near normal Tuesday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal west and above normal east.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal west and above normal east through Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures well below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures below normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures above normal north and well below normal south.

Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers south Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures below normal south and above

normal north Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Sunday.

John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

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