Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A stalled front bringing areas of heavy rain from the Central Plains to the Great Lakes, heat for the Eastern U.S., a change to the pattern for next week, and patches of dryness in the Black Sea region, China, and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH SHOWERS INCREASING

A front continues to be stuck across the northern Midwest where showers and thunderstorms have been concentrated, and some areas of heavy rain have fallen so far this week. The front continues to produce showers for Wednesday and Thursday, before getting pushed southward by a system moving along it for Friday and Saturday. That should help to ease temperatures by several degrees. And then another front will sweep through the region Sunday and Monday, likely with widespread showers. Southern areas have seen some spotty showers, but many areas have had a chance to dry out a bit. The combination of heat and soil moisture should improve growth for many in the region. More rain in the short-term forecast could be unwanted by some, though others that did get to dry out may enjoy some rainfall coming through.

FRONT STALLED IN CENTRAL PLAINS

A front remains stalled in the Central Plains with some heavy rain that has already occurred. The main impacts to the front will push into the Southern Plains for Thursday and Friday after these areas have gotten a chance to dry out a bit. Another front will go sweeping through the region this weekend into early next week with more showers and we could see it stall across Texas for a few days as well. Rainfall continues to be largely favorable for corn, soybeans, and other spring-sewn crops but is having a negative impact on some wheat areas that are in the midst of harvest that has been delayed.

MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Recent severe weather in North Dakota has produced substantial damage. But there was also meaningful rainfall in some drier areas of the Northern Plains, especially in Montana where drought has been the most intense in the region. Periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to move through the region through the weekend and could produce more meaningful rainfall while some areas get missed.

DELTA WARM WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS

Flow coming north from the Gulf has been and will continue to produce isolated showers throughout the Delta for the rest of the week. While most areas will see drier conditions that would help to drain soils and promote growth, some areas could see heavy downpours. A front will move into the region early next week and if it stalls, could produce more heavy rainfall potential.

MORE SCATTERED RAINFALL FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Another system will move through the Canadian Prairies on Friday and Saturday that could produce more widespread precipitation after disturbances ahead of it have been producing limited showers this week. But even with these systems, showers should come via thunderstorm clusters that have a tendency to miss some areas. Even so, the rain that does fall will certainly be useful. Temperatures were cold this weekend behind the system and some patchy frost likely occurred in parts of Alberta, which continued on Monday and Tuesday mornings as well. Some limited damage may have occurred.

COLD AIR, FROSTS IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A front pushed northward on Monday into much of central Brazil, producing unnecessary rainfall for safrinha corn that is maturing and in the midst of harvest. Temperatures behind the front are cold for the next few days and some frosts will be possible across the south. That is unlikely to have much of an effect on either corn that is awaiting harvest or winter wheat development, which can handle early morning frosts without damage. Frosts may be possible in south-central Brazil's specialty crops of citrus, coffee, and sugarcane though, which could have an impact.

HEAT CONTINUING IN EUROPE WITH LIMITED NORTHERN SHOWERS

Hotter and drier conditions over the past week have been largely favorable for dry down of winter crops and harvest in Europe but have stressed some of the drier corn areas scattered throughout the continent. A system passed through Sunday and Monday with showers across the north, and another will do so for Wednesday and Thursday, but temperatures are largely forecast to stay above normal through most of next week and on some days, be extremely hot. Any areas that are dry or miss out on the showers this week could see additional stress developing.

ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA REGION

Waves of isolated showers have been moving through the Black Sea region over the last couple of weeks and continue through the weekend before going on another dry stretch. The rain is helping some lucky areas that get hit while others remain too dry. Wheat areas are too late to find much benefit in rainfall as the crop goes further toward or into maturity, but corn areas are still in need of a lot of rain. Cooler temperatures in the area could help to reduce the stress, though.

DRIER AGAIN THROUGH AUSTRALIA

Many areas in Australia remain too dry as winter wheat and canola try to build roots over the winter. A front moving through the west brought some helpful rainfall Friday and Saturday but produced only spotty areas of rain in the drier east on Monday and Tuesday. Drier conditions are likely for a while, with only limited showers moving through at times. Much more rain is needed but will be more critical in another month or two as wheat gets into its reproductive stages.

CENTRAL CHINA STILL IN NEED OF RAIN, PATTERN BECOMING MORE ACTIVE

Central China is still in need of rainfall while other areas of the country are doing fine for soil moisture. A system will come through Wednesday and Thursday with scattered showers on the North China Plain, which will slow the wheat and canola harvest some but would be beneficial for corn and soybean development. The forecast has turned more active with systems becoming more frequent this weekend through next week which would certainly be helpful for developing corn and soybeans.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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