Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A stalled front bringing areas of heavy rain from the Central Plains to the Great Lakes, heat for the Eastern U.S., and patches of dryness in the Black Sea region, China, and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

HEAT CONTINUING ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH HEAVY RAIN IN THE NORTH

Heat spread throughout the Midwest over the weekend and should have been beneficial for promoting growth for many of the wetter areas around the region. For those smaller areas dealing with dryness, the heat could be considered damaging. A front is largely stalled from the northwest through the Great Lakes for the next couple of days. This will be the focus for widespread showers and thunderstorms and ease the heat across the north and west. Flow coming north from the Gulf will produce isolated showers across the south that could mean small areas of heavy downpours, but generally dry conditions are expected as most areas get missed. The front will sag a little farther south for Friday and Saturday while another front sweeps through Sunday and Monday with more widespread showers and thunderstorms possible.

FRONT STALLED IN CENTRAL PLAINS

A front will remain stalled across the Central Plains for most of the week, continuing chances for showers and thunderstorms, but also some severe weather. The Southern Plains will get a fair chance to dry out, which would help the wheat harvest, though there may be some severe storms to deal with in the southwest this week as well. Those will be spotty. After a brief bout of very hot temperatures over the weekend, temperatures are falling below normal behind the front and near normal east of the front.

MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Recent severe weather in North Dakota has produced substantial damage. But there was also meaningful rainfall in some drier areas of the Northern Plains, especially in Montana where drought has been the most intense in the region. Periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to move through the region through the weekend and could produce more meaningful rainfall while some areas get missed.

DELTA WARM WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS

Flow coming north from the Gulf will continue to produce isolated showers throughout the Delta this week. While most areas will see drier conditions that would help to drain soils and promote growth, some areas could see heavy downpours. A front will move into the region early next week and if it stalls, could produce more heavy rainfall potential.

MORE SCATTERED RAINFALL FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Rainfall over the weekend was beneficial for many areas of the Canadian Prairies, especially in Alberta and northwestern Saskatchewan, but the scattered nature elsewhere has meant that other areas did not receive enough and need more. Disturbances moving through this week will produce scattered showers while another system will move through Friday and Saturday that could produce more widespread precipitation. But even with these systems, showers should come via thunderstorm clusters that have a tendency on missing some areas. Even so, the rain that does fall will certainly be useful. Temperatures were cold this weekend behind the system and some patchy frost likely occurred in parts of Alberta, which continued on Monday and Tuesday mornings as well. Temperatures will be rising now for the rest of the week to eliminate the threat.

COLD AIR, FROSTS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A front pushed northward on Monday into much of central Brazil, producing unnecessary rainfall for safrinha corn that is maturing and in the midst of harvest. Temperatures behind the front will be cold for the next few days and some frosts will be possible across the south for the next couple of days. That is unlikely to have much of an effect on either corn or winter wheat development, which can handle early morning frosts without damage. Frosts may be possible in south-central Brazil's specialty crops of citrus, coffee, and sugarcane though, which could have an impact.

HEAT CONTINUING IN EUROPE WITH LIMITED NORTHERN SHOWERS

Hotter and drier conditions over the past week have been largely favorable for dry down of winter crops and harvest in Europe, but have stressed some of the drier corn areas scattered throughout the continent. A system passed through Sunday and Monday with showers across the north, and another will do so for Wednesday and Thursday, but temperatures are largely forecast to stay above normal through most of next week. Any areas that are dry or miss out on the showers this week could see additional stress developing.

ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA REGION

Isolated showers moved through the Black Sea region over the weekend and several systems will bring more this week, helping some lucky areas while others remain too dry. Wheat areas are too late to find much benefit in rainfall as the crop goes further toward or into maturity, but corn areas are still in need of a lot of rain. Cooler temperatures in the area could help to reduce the stress, though.

A FEW SHOWERS FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Many areas of Australia remain too dry as winter wheat and canola try to build roots over the winter. A front moving through the west brought some helpful rainfall Friday and Saturday, but is producing only spotty areas of rain in the drier east, with drier conditions likely following for a while. Much more rain is needed, but will be more critical in another month or two as wheat gets into its reproductive stages.

CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CHINA STILL IN NEED OF RAIN

Central and northeast China largely stayed dry over the weekend while monsoon rains continued across the south. A system will come through midweek with scattered showers on the North China Plain, which will slow the wheat and canola harvest, but would be beneficial if they occur for corn and soybean development. The North China Plain continues to be very dry overall and in need of rain while the northeast is enduring some short-term dryness from favorable weather earlier. Systems may be more frequent next week and that would certainly be helpful for developing corn and soybeans.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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