DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is a ridge in the East with a trough in the Canadian Prairies and another in the Southwest. The heat ridge is weakening but will stick around for much of the week. The Canadian trough will move eastward over the next couple of days while the southwestern trough will do so later this week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Another trough will move into western Canada this weekend and then eastward early next week. A ridge will develop behind it in the West, flipping the pattern for next week.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system moving through Canada this weekend will push a front through most of the country next week with scattered showers and thunderstorms. The front may get stuck in the southern U.S. again where we will have to watch for potential heavy rainfall. Temperatures behind the front should be much milder, though heat could build across the Northern Plains later next week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...106 AT TOLLESON, AZ AND DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW MON...19 AT 14 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MACKAY, ID AND PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...AMARILLO, TX 1.26 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge in the East with a trough in the Canadian Prairies and another in the Southwest. The heat ridge is weakening but will stick around for much of the week. The Canadian trough will move eastward over the next couple of days while the southwestern trough will do so later this week. Another trough will move into western Canada this weekend and then eastward early next week. A ridge will develop behind it in the West, flipping the pattern for next week.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system moving through Canada this weekend will push a front through most of the country next week with scattered showers and thunderstorms. The front may get stuck in the southern U.S. again where we will have to watch for potential heavy rainfall. Temperatures behind the front should be much milder, though heat could build across the Northern Plains later next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Recent severe weather in North Dakota has produced substantial damage. But there was also meaningful rainfall in some drier areas, especially in Montana where drought has been the most intense in the region. Periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to move through the region through the weekend and could produce more meaningful rainfall while some areas get missed.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front will remain stalled across northern areas for most of the week, continuing chances for showers and thunderstorms, but also some severe weather. Southern areas will get a fair chance to dry out, which would help the wheat harvest, though there may be some severe storms to deal with in the southwest this week as well. Those would be spotty. After a brief bout of very hot temperatures over the weekend, temperatures are falling below normal behind the front and near normal east of the front.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Heat spread throughout the region over the weekend, and should have been beneficial for promoting growth for many of the wetter areas around the region. For those smaller areas dealing with dryness, the heat could be considered damaging. A front is largely stalled from the northwest through the Great Lakes for the next couple of days. This will be the focus for widespread showers and thunderstorms and ease the heat across the north and west. Flow coming north from the Gulf will produce isolated showers across the south that could mean small areas of heavy downpours, but generally dry conditions are expected as most areas get missed.

The front will sag a little farther south for Friday and Saturday while another front sweeps through Sunday and Monday with more widespread showers and thunderstorms possible.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Flow coming north from the Gulf will continue to produce isolated showers throughout the week. While most areas will see drier conditions that would help to drain soils and promote growth, some areas could see heavy downpours. A front will move into the region early next week and if it stalls, could produce more heavy rainfall potential.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): Rainfall over the weekend was beneficial for many areas of the region, especially in Alberta and northwestern Saskatchewan, but the scattered nature elsewhere has meant that other areas did not receive enough and need more. Disturbances moving through this week will produce scattered showers while another system will move through Friday and Saturday that could produce more widespread precipitation. But even with these systems, showers should come via thunderstorm clusters that have a tendency on missing some areas. Even so, the rain that does fall will certainly be useful.

Temperatures were cold this weekend behind the system and some patchy frost likely occurred in parts of Alberta, which continued on Monday and Tuesday mornings as well. Temperatures will be rising now for the rest of the week to eliminate the threat.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A front pushed northward on Monday into much of central Brazil, producing unnecessary rainfall for safrinha corn that is maturing and in the midst of harvest. Temperatures behind the front will be cold for the next few days and some frosts will be possible across the south for the next couple of days. That is unlikely to have much of an effect on either corn or winter wheat development, which can handle early morning frosts without damage. Frosts may be possible in south-central Brazil's specialty crops of citrus, coffee, and sugarcane though, which could have an impact.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Colder temperatures will produce widespread frosts and freezes for at least the next week, but have no significant impact on the corn and soybean harvests or winter wheat establishment. Though drier conditions will continue to promote harvest, rainfall is needed for winter wheat establishment.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Hotter and drier conditions over the past week have been largely favorable for dry down of winter crops and harvest, but have stressed some of the drier corn areas scattered throughout the continent. A system passed through Sunday and Monday with showers across the north, and another will do so for Wednesday and Thursday, but temperatures are largely forecast to stay above normal through most of next week. Any areas that are dry or miss out on the showers this week could see additional stress developing.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Isolated showers moved through over the weekend and several systems will bring more this week, helping some lucky areas while others remain too dry. Wheat areas are too late to find much benefit in rainfall as the crop goes further toward or into maturity, but corn areas are still in need of a lot of rain. Cooler temperatures in the area could help to reduce the stress, though.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Many areas remain too dry as winter wheat and canola try to build roots over the winter. A front moving through the west brought some helpful rainfall Friday and Saturday, but is producing only spotty areas of rain in the drier east, with drier conditions likely following for a while. Much more rain is needed, but will be more critical in another month or two as wheat gets into its reproductive stages.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Central and northeast China largely stayed dry over the weekend while monsoon rains continued across the south. A system will come through midweek with scattered showers on the North China Plain, which will slow the wheat and canola harvest, but would be beneficial if they occur for corn and soybean development. The North China Plain continues to be very dry overall and in need of rain while the northeast is enduring some short-term dryness from favorable weather earlier. Systems may be more frequent next week and that would certainly be helpful for developing corn and soybeans.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

East: Scattered showers northwest. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, above normal Saturday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Thursday. Temperatures above normal Sunday-Monday, near normal Tuesday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal west and above normal east.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday, especially north.

Temperatures near to below normal west and above normal east through Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.

Temperatures near to below normal Sunday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures falling below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Saturday.

Temperatures below normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal north and near to below normal south.

Forecast: Isolated showers north Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers south Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures below normal south and above normal north Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Saturday.

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John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

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