Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A stalled front bringing heavy rain to the Upper Midwest, heat for the Southern and Eastern U.S., and patches of dryness in the Black Sea region, China, and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

HEAT CONTINUING ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH HEAVY RAIN IN THE NORTH

Heat spread throughout the Midwest over the weekend should have been beneficial for promoting growth for many of the wetter areas around the region. For those smaller areas dealing with dryness, the heat could be considered damaging. A front is moving into the northwest and will continue to push across the Great Lakes early this week. This will be the focus for widespread showers and thunderstorms throughout the week. This will help to ease the heat across the north and west. Flow coming north from the Gulf will produce isolated showers across the south that could mean small areas of heavy downpours, but generally dry conditions as most areas get missed. The front will sag a little farther south this weekend while another front sweeps through early next week with more widespread showers and thunderstorms possible.

FRONT STALLED IN CENTRAL PLAINS

Some isolated showers moved through the Central and Southern Plains this weekend before a front moved into the Central Plains on Sunday with more widespread showers and thunderstorms into Nebraska. The front will remain stalled across northern areas for most of the week, continuing chances for showers and thunderstorms, but also some severe weather. Southern areas will get a fair chance to dry out, which would help the wheat harvest, though there may be some severe storms to deal with in the southwest this week as well. Those would be spotty. After a brief bout of very hot temperatures over the weekend, temperatures are falling below normal behind the front and near normal east of the front.

MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Severe thunderstorms rocked North Dakota Friday night, producing a long stretch of wind and tornado damage that was close to being classified as a derecho but came up just short. Still, the damage is extensive. Additional strong thunderstorms moved through on Sunday across the east. There was meaningful rainfall in some drier areas of the region, especially in Montana where drought has been the most intense. Periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to move through the region through the weekend and could produce more meaningful rainfall while some areas get missed.

DELTA WARM WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS WEEK

Most areas of the Delta were drier over the weekend, though some isolated showers did develop as the flow coming north from the Gulf was too much for the atmosphere not to produce storms. This will continue throughout the week. While most areas will see drier conditions that would help to drain soils and promote growth, some areas could see heavy downpours. A front will move into the region early next week and if it stalls, could produce more heavy rainfall potential.

MORE SCATTERED RAINFALL FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS WEEK

A storm system moved through the Canadian Prairies over the weekend, bringing widespread soaking rainfall to Alberta and northwestern Saskatchewan, but scattered showers elsewhere. With how dry soils have been over the last month, the rainfall across the south and east has not been enough. More is going to be needed. Disturbances moving through this week could produce scattered showers while another system will move through Friday and Saturday that could produce more widespread precipitation. But even with these systems, showers should come via thunderstorm clusters that have a tendency on missing some areas. Even so, the rain that does fall will certainly be useful. Temperatures were cold this weekend behind the system and some patchy frost likely occurred in parts of Alberta. Colder temperatures early this week could continue that in some western areas on Monday and maybe Tuesday morning as well.

COLD AIR MOVING INTO SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Southern Brazil's safrinha corn areas are maturing and do not need rainfall, which is now becoming more of a hindrance for harvest. However, any rainfall would be generally favorable for the state of Rio Grande do Sul for winter wheat establishment. A stalled front continued to produce rainfall for southern states, but will get pushed northward for Monday into much of central Brazil, producing unnecessary rainfall for safrinha corn. Temperatures behind the front will be cold and some frosts will be possible across the south for a couple of days early this week. That is unlikely to have much of an effect on either corn which is maturing or mature, or winter wheat development, which can handle early morning frosts without damage. Frosts may be possible in south-central Brazil's specialty crops of citrus, coffee, and sugarcane though, which could have an impact.

HEAT CONTINUING IN EUROPE WITH LIMITED NORTHERN SHOWERS

Hotter and drier conditions over the past week have been largely favorable for dry down of winter crops and harvest in Europe, but have stressed some of the drier corn areas scattered throughout the continent. A couple of systems will pass through this week with showers across the north, but temperatures are largely forecast to stay above normal. Any areas that are dry or miss out on the showers this week could see additional stress developing.

ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA REGION

Isolated showers moved through the Black Sea region over the weekend and several systems will bring more this week, helping some lucky areas while others remain too dry. Wheat areas are too late to find much benefit in rainfall as the crop goes further toward or into maturity, but corn areas are still in need of a lot of rain. Cooler temperatures in the area could help to reduce the stress, though.

A FEW SHOWERS FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Many areas of Australia remain too dry as winter wheat and canola try to build roots over the winter. A front moving through the west brought some helpful rainfall Friday and Saturday, but is forecast to translate into spotty areas of rain in the drier east early this week with drier conditions likely following for a while. Much more rain is needed, but will be more critical in another month or two as wheat gets into its reproductive stages.

CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CHINA NEED RAIN

Central and northeast China largely stayed dry over the weekend while monsoon rains continued across the south. A system will come through mid-late week with scattered showers on the North China Plain, which will slow the wheat and canola harvest, but would be beneficial if they occur for corn and soybean development. The North China Plain continues to be very dry overall and in need of rain while the northeast is enduring some short-term dryness from favorable weather earlier. Systems may be more frequent next week and that would certainly be helpful for developing corn and soybeans.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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