DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...104 AT ST. FRANCIS, KS

LOW SUN...20 AT AUSTIN, NV

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...CARIBOU, ME 0.66 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge in the East with a trough in the Canadian Prairies and another in the Southwest. The heat ridge will weaken early this week but stick around for much of the week. The Canadian trough will move eastward over the next couple of days while the southwestern trough will do so later this week.

Another trough will move into western Canada this weekend and then eastward early next week. A ridge will develop behind it in the West, flipping the pattern somewhat for next week.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

The leftover front will continue to produce showers and thunderstorms in the Midwest this weekend while flow from the Gulf of America will bring showers to the South and East. Another system will move through the Canadian Prairies this weekend and a front should sweep through most of the country next week with scattered showers and thunderstorms as well. The front may get stuck in the southern U.S. again where we will have to watch for potential heavy rainfall.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Severe thunderstorms rocked North Dakota Friday night, producing a long stretch of wind and tornado damage that was close to being classified as a derecho but came up just short. Still, the damage is extensive. Additional strong thunderstorms moved through Sunday across the east. There was meaningful rainfall in some drier areas, especially in Montana where drought has been the most intense in the region.

Periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to move through the region through the weekend and could produce more meaningful rainfall while some areas get missed.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Some isolated showers moved through this weekend before a front moved into the Central Plains on Sunday with more widespread showers and thunderstorms into Nebraska. The front will remain stalled across northern areas for most of the week, continuing chances for showers and thunderstorms, but also some severe weather.

Southern areas will get a fair chance to dry out, which would help the wheat harvest, though there may be some severe storms to deal with in the southwest this week as well. Those would be spotty. After a brief bout of very hot temperatures over the weekend, temperatures are falling below normal behind the front and near normal east of the front.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Heat spread throughout the region over the weekend, and should have been beneficial for promoting growth for many of the wetter areas around the region. For those smaller areas dealing with dryness, the heat could be considered damaging. A front is moving into the northwest and will continue to push across the Great Lakes early this week.

This will be the focus for widespread showers and thunderstorms throughout the week. This will help to ease the heat across the north and west. Flow coming north from the Gulf will produce isolated showers across the south that could mean small areas of heavy downpours, but generally dry conditions as most areas get missed. The front will sag a little farther south this weekend while another front sweeps through early next week with more widespread showers and thunderstorms possible.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Most areas were drier over the weekend, though some isolated showers did develop as the flow coming north from the Gulf was too much for the atmosphere not to produce storms. This will continue throughout the week. While most areas will see drier conditions that would help to drain soils and promote growth, some areas could see heavy downpours. A front will move into the region early next week and if it stalls, could produce more heavy rainfall potential.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): A storm system moved through over the weekend, bringing widespread soaking rainfall to Alberta and northwestern Saskatchewan, but scattered showers elsewhere. With how dry soils have been over the last month, the rainfall across the south and east has not been enough. More is going to be needed. Disturbances moving through this week could produce scattered showers while another system will move through Friday and Saturday that could produce more widespread precipitation. But even with these systems, showers should come via thunderstorm clusters that have a tendency on missing some areas. Even so, the rain that does fall will certainly be useful.

Temperatures were cold this weekend behind the system and some patchy frost likely occurred in parts of Alberta. Colder temperatures early this week could continue that in some western areas on Monday and maybe Tuesday morning as well.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Southern safrinha corn areas are maturing and do not need rainfall, which is now becoming more of a hindrance for harvest.

However, any rainfall would be generally favorable for the state of Rio Grande do Sul for winter wheat establishment. A stalled front continued to produce rainfall for southern states, but will get pushed northward for Monday into much of central Brazil, producing unnecessary rainfall for safrinha corn.

Temperatures behind the front will be cold and some frosts will be possible across the south for a couple of days early this week. That is unlikely to have much of an effect on either corn which is maturing or mature, or winter wheat development, which can handle early morning frosts without damage. Frosts may be possible in south-central Brazil's specialty crops of citrus, coffee, and sugarcane though, which could have an impact.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A few showers moved through southeast and far northern areas over the weekend, but most areas stayed dry. Colder temperatures moving into the country will produce frosts this week but have no impact on the corn and soybean harvests or winter wheat establishment.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Hotter and drier conditions over the past week have been largely favorable for dry down of winter crops and harvest, but have stressed some of the drier corn areas scattered throughout the continent. A couple of systems will pass through this week with showers across the north, but temperatures are largely forecast to stay above normal. Any areas that are dry or miss out on the showers this week could see additional stress developing.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Isolated showers moved through over the weekend and several systems will bring more this week, helping some lucky areas while others remain too dry. Wheat areas are too late to find much benefit in rainfall as the crop goes further toward or into maturity, but corn areas are still in need of a lot of rain. Cooler temperatures in the area could help to reduce the stress, though.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Many areas remain too dry as winter wheat and canola try to build roots over the winter. A front moving through the west brought some helpful rainfall Friday and Saturday, but is forecast to translate into spotty areas of rain in the drier east early this week with drier conditions likely following for a while. Much more rain is needed, but will be more critical in another month or two as wheat gets into its reproductive stages.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Central and northeast China largely stayed dry over the weekend while monsoon rains continued across the south. A system will come through mid-late week with scattered showers on the North China Plain, which will slow the wheat and canola harvest, but would be beneficial if they occur for corn and soybean development. The North China Plain continues to be very dry overall and in need of rain while the northeast is enduring some short-term dryness from favorable weather earlier. Systems may be more frequent next week and that would certainly be helpful for developing corn and soybeans.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers far north. Temperatures well above normal.

East: Scattered showers far north. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Friday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday, mostly north. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday-Monday, near normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday, especially north.

Temperatures near to below normal west and above normal east through Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday.

Temperatures near normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers north Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Friday, especially north. Temperatures below normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated showers south Thursday-Friday. Temperatures below normal south and above normal north Monday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday.

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John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

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