Canadian Prairies Weather Outlook

Models have been largely disappointing regarding the forecast for the Canadian Prairies for several weeks now. What has been a forecast for good rainfall in the extended range has fizzled out once we near the events. As a result of the disappointing precipitation, much of the region has gotten very dry. The crop report out of Saskatchewan this week confirmed the overall pattern, saying multiple times that areas need rain quickly before damage occurs to their crops. The crop reports out of Alberta and Manitoba have shown rainfall deficits in their respective provinces as well. So, the entire region needs rainfall.

Well, models finally got one system right. A storm system is building over the Northern Plains and into Alberta on June 20, and rainfall will spread across the region through the weekend and possibly into Monday as well. The system is forecast to produce the most rain over the southern half of Alberta, where forecasts are printing out amounts generally in the 50-100 millimeters range (about 2-4 inches). Heavier rain also extends into central and northern Saskatchewan but with somewhat reduced amounts in the 30-60 mm range (about 1.2 to 2.5 inches). This rainfall comes as a multi-day soaker and the kind of rain that penetrates deep into the soil column instead of running off. Heavy amounts can still do that, but much of this rainfall will be available to crops and forages. However, over northern Alberta, southern Saskatchewan, and all of Manitoba, showers will be coming through in a more scattered fashion. Though amounts can eclipse 25 mm (about 1 inch) in any of these locations due to thunderstorms, some areas could also get bypassed and skipped over. Areas in Manitoba are most at risk of these storms missing and could be significant if they do.

Minor disturbances and systems should follow behind the system next week as well, but showers should be spottier and less widespread with only localized heavy rainfall for some lucky areas. Another system should move through late next week and weekend, but it is in that extended range again and may not produce like models are currently suggesting.

Overall, this should be a winning period of rainfall for the region, though some areas may not feel that way. The heavier rain near the forests should help with the wildfire situation to some degree as well.

One other factor to watch will be some briefly colder air that will work through the region on the backside of the system. Temperatures will fall into the single digits Celsius (30s Fahrenheit) across Alberta and parts of Saskatchewan for June 23-24. Cloud cover and some wind should keep temperatures from falling to freezing in most places, but there could be some very spotty frosts occurring. This late in the growing season could produce some damage to crops in the region should frost occur.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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