Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- More widespread rain through the northern U.S. and Canadian Prairies, a few days of heat moving across the U.S., and patches of dryness in the Black Sea region, China, and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

HEAT BUILDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST

Key areas from southern Iowa and northern Missouri through northern Illinois received rainfall over the last couple of days. Additional disturbances will move across northern areas of the Midwest Friday, but drier conditions are expected this weekend with heat building across the region. The heat will be intense and peak over the weekend, but above-normal temperatures are forecast for most areas next week as well. That could help wetter areas see some drying, while drier areas will be stressed. A front will move into the northwest and stall Sunday night or Monday, providing more opportunities for rainfall across the north through much of next week before that front gets pushed eastward later next week or weekend. Additional isolated showers will be possible to the south and east as well.

FRONT TO STALL IN CENTRAL PLAINS

The recent run of active weather has produced a lot of rainfall for much of the Central and Southern Plains, good for developing corn and soybeans as well as forages, but is hindering the wheat harvest, especially with the bouts of severe weather and heavy rainfall. A front will move into the region Sunday night and stall out with scattered showers for much of next week, especially through the Central Plains. Rain that continues could cause quality concerns and damage for unharvested wheat, but continue to build soil moisture for corn and soybeans. Ahead of that front, temperatures will briefly soar to extreme levels for the weekend, helping those with ample moisture to see better growth.

MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have moved through the Northern Plains this week and multiple impulses and systems should keep that going through next weekend. However, showers will be somewhat sporadic and will certainly miss some key areas that are yet to be determined.

DELTA HEATING UP, DRYING OUT SOMEWHAT

A front moved through the Delta this week and has temporarily dried the region out. Increasing temperatures through the weekend and into next week could help to drain soils and increase growth. But isolated showers may develop over the weekend and increase next week with flow coming off of the Gulf. Soils are well-stocked with moisture, but the overly wet conditions continue to bog down operations. Ponding is also a cause for concern from pests and diseases and causing uneven growth in a lot of the region.

BIG SYSTEM FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS WEEKEND

Multiple disturbances and fronts this week have brought needed scattered showers to the Canadian Prairies, though much more is needed. A bigger system Friday through the weekend will bring more widespread rainfall, including heavy rain for Alberta into Saskatchewan with more scattered showers elsewhere. Anything would be a benefit with crop ratings dropping with recent dry weather, especially in the east.

WAVES OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Southern Brazil's safrinha corn areas are maturing and do not need rainfall, which is now becoming more of a hindrance for harvest. However, any rainfall would be generally favorable for the state of Rio Grande do Sul for winter wheat establishment. A stalled front and couple of systems have been producing rainfall, which continues into next week. A push northward may bring these showers deeper into safrinha corn territory early next week which would not be favorable. Cold temperatures may produce frosts across the south early next week, but that should generally not be harmful for a mostly mature corn crop.

HOTTER AND DRIER IN EUROPE

Hotter and drier conditions in Europe this week have been favorable for dry down of winter crops and harvest, but stress some of the drier corn areas scattered throughout the continent. Showers are forecast to pick up a bit next week across the north, but could be isolated. If so, some more dryness concerns could be building outside of the already dry areas in the northwest, even though they have seen some recent improvement in rainfall.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA REGION

Isolated showers continue in the Black Sea region into next week, helping some lucky areas while others remain too dry. Wheat areas are too late to find much benefit in rainfall as the crop goes further toward or into maturity, but corn areas are still in need of a lot of rain. Cooler temperatures in the area could help to reduce the stress into next week, though.

A FEW SHOWERS FOR AUSTRALIA

Many areas of Australia remain too dry as winter wheat and canola try to build roots over the winter. A front moving through the west is bringing some helpful rainfall Friday, but is forecast to translate into spotty areas of rain in the drier east this weekend into early next week. Much more rain is needed, but will be more critical in another month or two.

CENTRAL CHINA GOT HEAVY RAIN, WILL NEED MUCH MORE

Some heavy rain moved through central China over the last couple of days, which was sorely needed with drought across much of the region. With winter wheat and canola undergoing harvest, delays are likely. But the corn and soybeans in the region really needed this rainfall. Corn and beans in the northeast have much more favorable weather and soil conditions. But with the front now moving south, little rainfall is in the forecast for the next week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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