DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

A ridge is moving into the Central U.S. and will park in the Midwest this weekend into much of next week. A trough is moving into the West as well. A large piece of the trough should lift northeast through Canada early next week, though part of the trough will be left behind in the West.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The western piece of trough should come eastward later next week. Another trough will move into the Northwest next weekend, shifting eastward into early next week across the north.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar in their setups, but not in the details. I will use a blend but favor the European.

Flow from the Gulf of Mexico (Gulf of America) should promote isolated showers and thunderstorms northward through the eastern half of the country next week. A fairly stationary boundary from the Central Plains to the Upper Midwest should be a focus for clusters of showers and thunderstorms, some potential heavy rainfall, and severe weather through a good portion of next week. This front will eventually get pushed eastward late next week and weekend with another system from the remaining western trough. Another system is likely to move into the Plains later next weekend with the next trough as well, likely producing scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially across the north.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...120 AT STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA

LOW THU...28 AT PETER SINKS, UT, REDFEATHER LAKES, CO, AND PIERCE, ID

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...ST. PETERSBURG, FL 3.93 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

A ridge is moving into the Central U.S. and will park in the Midwest this weekend into much of next week. A trough is moving into the West as well. A large piece of the trough should lift northeast through Canada early next week, though part of the trough will be left behind in the West that should come eastward later next week. Another trough will move into the Northwest next weekend, shifting eastward into early next week.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar in their setups, but not in the details. I will use a blend but favor the European.

Flow from the Gulf of America should promote isolated showers and thunderstorms northward through the eastern half of the country next week. A fairly stationary boundary from the Central Plains to the Upper Midwest should be a focus for clusters of showers and thunderstorms, some potential heavy rainfall, and severe weather through a good portion of next week. This front will eventually get pushed eastward late next week and weekend with another system from the remaining western trough. Another system is likely to move into the Plains later next weekend with the next trough as well, likely producing scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially across the north.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers and thunderstorms have moved through this week and multiple impulses and systems should keep that going through next weekend. However, showers will be somewhat sporadic and will certainly miss some key areas that are yet to be determined.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): The recent run of active weather has produced a lot of rainfall for much of the region, good for developing corn and soybeans as well as forages, but is hindering the wheat harvest, especially with the bouts of severe weather and heavy rainfall. A front will move into the region Sunday night and stall out with scattered showers for much of next week, especially through the Central Plains. Rain that continues could cause quality concerns and damage for unharvested wheat, but continue to build soil moisture for corn and soybeans. Ahead of that front, temperatures will briefly soar to extreme levels for the weekend, helping those with ample moisture to see better growth.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Key areas from southern Iowa and northern Missouri through northern Illinois received rainfall over the last couple of days. Additional disturbances will move across northern areas Friday, but drier conditions are expected this weekend with heat building across the region. The heat will be intense and peak over the weekend, but above-normal temperatures are forecast for most areas next week as well. That could help wetter areas see some drying, while drier areas will be stressed. A front will move into the northwest and stall Sunday night or Monday, providing more opportunities for rainfall across the north through much of next week before that front gets pushed eastward later next week or weekend. Additional isolated showers will be possible to the south and east as well.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): A front moved through this week and has temporarily dried the region out. Increasing temperatures through the weekend and into next week could help to drain soils and increase growth. But isolated showers may develop over the weekend and increase next week with flow coming off of the Gulf. Soils are well-stocked with moisture, but the overly wet conditions continue to bog down operations.

Ponding is also a cause for concern from pests and diseases and causing uneven growth in a lot of the region.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): Multiple disturbances and fronts this week have brought needed scattered showers to the region, though much more is needed. A bigger system Friday through the weekend will bring more widespread rainfall, including heavy rain for Alberta into Saskatchewan with more scattered showers elsewhere. Anything would be a benefit with crop ratings dropping with recent dry weather, especially in the east.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Southern safrinha corn areas are maturing and do not need rainfall, which is now becoming more of a hindrance for harvest.

However, any rainfall would be generally favorable for the state of Rio Grande do Sul for winter wheat establishment. A stalled front and couple of systems have been producing rainfall, which continues into next week. A push northward may bring these showers deeper into safrinha corn territory early next week which would not be favorable. Cold temperatures may produce frosts across the south early next week, but that should generally not be harmful for a mostly mature corn crop.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front brought showers to the far north this week, which could delay some of the remaining harvest, but would continue to build soil moisture for any winter wheat. A system will move through this weekend, bringing some limited showers but also a burst of colder air. That continues with another system in the middle of next week. Though frosts will be possible in some areas, it should not be an issue for either corn and soybean harvest or winter wheat establishment.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Hotter and drier conditions this week has been favorable for dry down of winter crops and harvest, but stress some of the drier corn areas scattered throughout the continent. Showers are forecast to pick up a bit next week across the north, but could be isolated. If so, some more dryness concerns could be building outside of the already dry areas in the northwest, even though they have seen some recent improvement in rainfall.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Isolated showers continue into next week, helping some lucky areas while others remain too dry. Wheat areas are too late to find much benefit in rainfall as the crop goes further toward or into maturity, but corn areas are still in need of a lot of rain. Cooler temperatures in the area could help to reduce the stress into next week, though.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Many areas remain too dry as winter wheat and canola try to build roots over the winter. A front moving through the west is bringing some helpful rainfall Friday, but is forecast to translate into spotty areas of rain in the drier east this weekend into early next week. Much more rain is needed, but will be more critical in another month or two.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Some heavy rain moved through central China over the last couple of days, which was sorely needed with drought across much of the region. With winter wheat and canola undergoing harvest, delays are likely. But the corn and soybeans in the region really needed this rainfall. Corn and beans in the northeast have much more favorable weather and soil conditions. But with the front now moving south, little rainfall is in the forecast for the next week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers north Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday.

Scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures above normal Friday, well above normal Saturday-Sunday, above normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers north Friday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday.

Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures above normal Friday, well above normal Saturday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday-Tuesday, especially north. Temperatures above to well above normal Friday-Sunday, falling Monday, near to below normal west and above normal east Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to below normal west and above normal east Wednesday-Thursday, near normal Friday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers south. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, below normal Monday-Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Scattered showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, near to below normal Monday-Tuesday.

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John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

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