DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

A ridge is strengthening in the West and will shift eastward Friday into the weekend, parking in the Midwest for a couple of days while a new trough moves into the West.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A large piece of the trough should lift northeast through Canada early next week, though we will probably see part of the trough left behind in the West that may come eastward later next week.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar in their setups, but both models are having trouble with precipitation development. I will use a blend but favor the European.

Flow from the Gulf of Mexico (Gulf of America) should promote isolated showers and thunderstorms northward through the eastern half of the country next week.

After a system moves through Canada and the Northern Plains this weekend, it will lay down a fairly stationary boundary from the Central Plains to the Upper Midwest that would be a focus for clusters of showers and thunderstorms, some potential heavy rainfall, and severe weather through a good portion of next week. This front will eventually get pushed eastward late next week and weekend with another system from the remaining western trough.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...115 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW TUE...29 AT MACKAY, ID

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...WICHITA, KS 1.15 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

A ridge is strengthening in the West and will shift eastward Friday into the weekend, parking in the Midwest for a couple of days while a new trough moves into the West. A large piece of the trough should lift northeast through Canada early next week, though we will probably see part of the trough left behind in the West that may come eastward later next week.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar in their setups, but both models are having trouble with precipitation development. I will use a blend but favor the European.

Flow from the Gulf of America should promote isolated showers and thunderstorms northward through the eastern half of the country next week.

After a system moves through Canada and the Northern Plains this weekend, it will lay down a fairly stationary boundary from the Central Plains to the Upper Midwest that would be a focus for clusters of showers and thunderstorms, some potential heavy rainfall, and severe weather through a good portion of next week. This front will eventually get pushed eastward late next week and weekend with another system from the remaining western trough.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Multiple impulses should bring scattered showers to the region through the middle of next week, with a focus on drier areas across the north, which would be favorable. However, showers will be somewhat sporadic and will certainly miss some key areas that are to be determined.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): The recent run of active weather has produced a lot of rainfall for much of the region, good for developing corn and soybeans as well as forages, but is hindering the wheat harvest, especially with the bouts of severe weather and heavy rainfall. With a front moving through on Wednesday, a shorter dry stretch is expected through the bulk of the weekend. However, a front will move into the region Sunday night and stall out with scattered showers for much of next week, especially through the Central Plains. Rain that continues could cause quality concerns and damage for unharvested wheat, but continue to build soil moisture for corn and soybeans.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Key areas from southern Iowa and northern Missouri through northern Illinois are in need of rain. However, some rain fell in these areas on Tuesday and more is expected for Wednesday with a system moving through. Additional disturbances will move across northern areas through the weekend. A front will move into the northwest and stall Sunday night or Monday, providing more opportunities for rainfall in the west through much of next week before that front gets pushed eastward later next week or weekend. Additional isolated showers will be possible to the east as well. Areas across the south could use a break as another week of wet weather bogs down fieldwork and remaining planting that is now late. A little burst of heat this weekend into early next week could help some areas dry out that miss out on the rainfall.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Dry weather continues to be hard to find as rain falls with systems and fronts stalling out in the region. A front that moves through on Wednesday may bring severe weather and continue showers into Friday. A small break is possible this weekend, but moisture moving north from the Gulf could again ignite showers and thunderstorms through next week. Soils are well-stocked with moisture, but the overly wet conditions continue to bog down operations and remaining planting.

Ponding is also a cause for concern from pests and diseases and causing uneven growth in a lot of the region.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): Northern areas of Saskatchewan and Manitoba are in need of some rain as are many other areas of the region. Multiple disturbances and fronts continue to pass through this week with scattered showers. A bigger system Friday through the weekend will bring more widespread rainfall, including heavy rain for Alberta into northern Saskatchewan. Anything would be a benefit with crop ratings dropping with recent dry weather, especially in the east.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Southern safrinha corn areas are maturing and do not need rainfall, which is now becoming more of a hindrance for harvest.

However, any rainfall would be generally favorable for the state of Rio Grande do Sul for winter wheat establishment. A stalled front and couple of systems should continue to produce rainfall into next week across the south. A push northward may bring these showers deeper into safrinha corn territory early next week which would not be favorable.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front stalled across the north will continue to produce rainfall through Friday, which could delay some of the remaining northern harvest, but would continue to build soil moisture for any winter wheat. A system will move through this weekend, bringing some limited showers but also a burst of colder air. Though frosts will be possible in some areas, it should not be an issue for either corn and soybean harvest or winter wheat establishment.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Hotter and drier conditions this week into next week will be favorable for dry down of winter crops and harvest, but stress some of the drier corn areas scattered throughout the continent. Showers are forecast to pick up a bit next week, but could be very isolated. If so, some more dryness concerns could be building outside of the already dry areas in the northwest, even though they have seen some recent improvement in rainfall.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Isolated to scattered showers continue most of this week, helping some lucky areas while others remain too dry. Wheat areas are too late to find much benefit in rainfall as the crop goes further toward or into maturity, but corn areas are still in need of a lot of rain in some areas and will need much more. Colder temperatures will move through later this week and weekend and could help to reduce the stress.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Many areas remain too dry as winter wheat and canola try to build roots over the winter. More periods of limited showers will move through to close out the month of June, but favor the west over the driest areas in the southeast.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): With harvest underway and increasing throughout the month, drier weather is now preferred in central China, though double-cropped corn and soybeans will need more moisture in these areas. A system will bring widespread rainfall Wednesday and Thursday which would be beneficial for building some soil moisture while also keeping temperatures from getting too stressful. Corn and soybeans in the northeast are in much better shape with favorable temperatures and soil moisture.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday, north Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, above normal Friday, well above normal Saturday-Sunday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Thursday, north Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, above normal Friday, well above normal Saturday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, above to well above normal Friday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures falling Monday, near to below normal west and above normal east Tuesday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers south. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

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John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

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