Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- More widespread rain through the U.S. and Canadian Prairies, a few days of heat moving across the U.S., and patches of dryness in the Black Sea region, China, and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEST

Key areas from southern Iowa and northern Missouri through northern Illinois are in need of rain. However, some rain fell in these areas on Tuesday, and more is expected for Wednesday with a system moving through. Additional disturbances will move across northern areas through the weekend. A front will move into the northwest and stall Sunday night or Monday, providing more opportunities for rainfall in the west through much of next week before that front gets pushed eastward later next week or weekend. Additional isolated showers will be possible to the east as well. Areas across the south could use a break as another week of wet weather bogs down fieldwork and remaining planting that is now late. A little burst of heat this weekend into early next week could help some areas dry out that miss out on the rainfall.

BRIEF DRYING TREND FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DEVELOPING

The recent run of active weather has produced a lot of rainfall for much of the Central and Southern Plains, good for developing corn and soybeans as well as forages, but is hindering the wheat harvest, especially with the bouts of severe weather and heavy rainfall. With a front moving through on Wednesday, a shorter dry stretch is expected through the bulk of the weekend. However, a front will move into the region Sunday night and stall out with scattered showers for much of next week, especially through the Central Plains. Rain that continues could cause quality concerns and damage for unharvested wheat, but continue to build soil moisture for corn and soybeans.

MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Multiple impulses should bring scattered showers to the Northern Plains through the middle of next week, with a focus on drier areas across the north, which would be favorable. However, showers will be somewhat sporadic and will certainly miss some key areas that are to be determined.

DELTA CONTINUES TO BE WET

Dry weather continues to be hard to find as rain falls with systems and fronts stalling out in the Delta. A front that moves through on Wednesday may bring severe weather and continue showers into Friday. A small break is possible this weekend, but moisture moving north from the Gulf could again ignite showers and thunderstorms through next week. Soils are well-stocked with moisture, but the overly wet conditions continue to bog down operations and remaining planting. Ponding is also a cause for concern from pests and diseases and causing uneven growth in a lot of the region.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES, BIG SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND

Northern areas of Saskatchewan and Manitoba are in need of some rain as are many other areas of the Canadian Prairies. Multiple disturbances and fronts continue to pass through this week with scattered showers. A bigger system Friday through the weekend will bring more widespread rainfall, including heavy rain for Alberta into northern Saskatchewan. Anything would be a benefit with crop ratings dropping with recent dry weather, especially in the east.

WAVES OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Southern Brazil's safrinha corn areas are maturing and do not need rainfall, which is now becoming more of a hindrance for harvest. However, any rainfall would be generally favorable for the state of Rio Grande do Sul for winter wheat establishment. A stalled front and couple of systems should continue to produce rainfall into next week across the south. A push northward may bring these showers deeper into safrinha corn territory early next week which would not be favorable.

HOTTER AND DRIER IN EUROPE THIS WEEK

Hotter and drier conditions this week into next week will be favorable for dry down of winter crops and harvest in Europe, but stress some of the drier corn areas scattered throughout the continent. Showers are forecast to pick up a bit next week, but could be very isolated. If so, some more dryness concerns could be building outside of the already dry areas in the northwest, even though they have seen some recent improvement in rainfall.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR BLACK SEA REGION

Isolated to scattered showers continue in the Black Sea region most of this week, helping some lucky areas while others remain too dry. Wheat areas are too late to find much benefit in rainfall as the crop goes further toward or into maturity, but corn areas are still in need of a lot of rain in some areas and will need much more. Colder temperatures will move through later this week and weekend and could help to reduce the stress.

A FEW SHOWERS FOR AUSTRALIA

Many areas of Australia remain too dry as winter wheat and canola try to build roots over the winter. More periods of limited showers will move through to close out the month of June, but favor the west over the driest areas in the southeast.

CENTRAL CHINA GETTING SOME NEEDED RAIN, WILL NEED MUCH MORE

With harvest underway and increasing throughout the month, drier weather is now preferred in central China, though double-cropped corn and soybeans will need more moisture in these areas. A system will bring widespread rainfall Wednesday and Thursday which would be beneficial for building some soil moisture while also keeping temperatures from getting too stressful. Corn and soybeans in the northeast are in much better shape with favorable temperatures and soil moisture.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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