DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

Multiple disturbances are moving through North America, leading to widespread precipitation. We should see a ridge strengthening over the Rockies later this week and shift eastward this weekend as a new trough moves into the West.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A large piece of the trough should lift northeast through Canada early next week, though we will probably see part of the trough left behind in the West that may come eastward later next week.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar in their setups, but both models are having trouble with precipitation development. I will use a blend but favor the GFS as the European has a few erroneous southwest-moving thunderstorm clusters.

Flow from the Gulf of Mexico (Gulf of America) should promote scattered showers and thunderstorms northward through the eastern half of the country this weekend into next week. A system is likely to move through Canada and the Northern Plains this weekend and could lay down a slow-moving or stationary boundary from the Central Plains to the Upper Midwest that would be a focus for clusters of showers and thunderstorms, some potential heavy rainfall, and severe weather through a good portion of next week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...121 AT STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA AND DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW MON...26 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...MOBILE, AL 2.29 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

Multiple disturbances are moving through North America, leading to widespread precipitation. We should see a ridge strengthening over the Rockies later this week and shift eastward this weekend as a new trough moves into the West. A large piece of the trough should lift northeast through Canada early next week, though we will probably see part of the trough left behind in the West that may come eastward later next week.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar in their setups, but both models are having trouble with precipitation development. I will use a blend but favor the GFS as the European has a few erroneous southwest-moving thunderstorm clusters.

Flow from the Gulf of America should promote scattered showers and thunderstorms northward through the eastern half of the country this weekend into next week. A system is likely to move through Canada and the Northern Plains this weekend and could lay down a slow-moving or stationary boundary from the Central Plains to the Upper Midwest that would be a focus for clusters of showers and thunderstorms, some potential heavy rainfall, and severe weather through a good portion of next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered thunderstorms produced some severe weather and areas of heavy rain over the weekend and Monday, including some of the driest areas of the region that needed some rain.

Multiple impulses are forecast to move through the region through next week, a positive sign for those that need some rain and helping to maintain good soil moisture for those that do not.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): The recent run of active weather has continued to pour a bunch of water on top of much of the region, good for developing corn and soybeans as well as forages, but is hindering the wheat harvest. Multiple disturbances moving through this week and next will keep chances going, but should become more isolated and likely shift northward with time. A major severe weather event is expected for Kansas on Tuesday after affecting many areas in Nebraska on Monday. That could be a concern for damaging a mature wheat crop awaiting harvest in the area.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Key areas from southern Iowa and northern Missouri through northern Illinois have largely missed out on a very active weather pattern so far this season. However, multiple disturbances moving through the region this week and next should provide plenty of opportunity for rainfall. Though with these coming by way of clusters of thunderstorms, some areas are bound to be missed. Areas across the south could use a break as another week of wet weather bogs down fieldwork and remaining planting that is now late. A little burst of heat this weekend into early next week could help some areas dry out that miss out on the rainfall.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Dry weather continues to be hard to find as rain falls with systems and fronts stalling out in the region. That continues this week and probably next as well as moisture from the Gulf streams northward. Soils are well-stocked with moisture, but the overly wet conditions continue to bog down operations and remaining planting. Ponding is also a cause for concern from pests and diseases and causing uneven growth in a lot of the region.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): A couple of disturbances brought scattered showers and thunderstorms through the region over the weekend, but favored the west while the east stayed drier. Northern areas of Saskatchewan and Manitoba are in need of some rain and they will have some opportunity this week.

Multiple disturbances and fronts will pass through this week with scattered showers and a bigger system will be likely this weekend into early next week with more widespread rainfall. Anything would be a benefit with crop ratings dropping with recent dry weather, especially in the east.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Southern areas of the country saw scattered showers over the weekend, which included southern safrinha corn areas. Those areas are maturing and do not need the rainfall, which is now becoming more of a hindrance for harvest. However, the rainfall is favorable for the state of Rio Grande do Sul for winter wheat establishment. A stalled front and couple of systems should continue to produce rainfall into next week, but more for the wheat areas than the corn, which would be favorable for both.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers moved through the northern half of the country over the weekend, including some areas that were flooded back in May, but also across drier areas in the central and north that could use the rain for winter wheat establishment. A front stalled across the north will continue to produce rainfall this week, which could delay some of the remaining northern harvest, but would continue to build soil moisture for any winter wheat.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers moved through some western countries over the weekend, including some drier areas in France, Germany, and the UK. It is a bit late for winter wheat, but favorable for any spring-sown crops. Hotter and drier conditions this week into next week will be favorable for dry down of winter crops and harvest, but stress some of the drier corn areas scattered throughout the continent.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Isolated to scattered showers moved back into the region over the weekend, including the very dry areas in the south and east, but were mostly spotty and light. Those showers continue most of this week, helping some lucky areas while others remain too dry. Wheat areas are too late to find much benefit in rainfall, but corn areas are still in need of a lot of rain in some areas and will need much more. Colder temperatures will move through later this week and weekend and could help to reduce the stress.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Spotty showers have moved through over the last week, but many areas remain too dry as winter wheat and canola try to build roots over the winter. More periods of limited showers will move through to close out the month of June, but favor the west over the driest areas in the south.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers went through over the weekend, but favored the corn and soybean areas in the northeast over the winter wheat and canola areas on the North China Plain. With harvest underway and increasing throughout the month, drier weather is now preferred there, though double-cropped corn and soybeans will need more moisture in these areas.

A system is forecast to bring widespread rainfall Wednesday and Thursday which would be beneficial for building some soil moisture while also keeping temperatures from getting too stressful.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, above normal Friday, well above normal Saturday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, above normal Friday, well above normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.

Temperatures above to well above normal Sunday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal through Thursday, above to well above normal Friday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.

Temperatures above to well above normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday, near normal Tuesday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers south. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday, mostly south. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.

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John Baranick can be reached at John.Baranick@dtn.com

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