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DTN/Progressive Farmer is gearing up for an expanded Digital Yield Tour in 2025, including state and national insights into developing corn and soybean crops.

Now in its eighth season, the tour paints a picture of corn and soybean production potential across 11 states in early August, shortly after corn's critical pollination phase and as soybeans begin filling pods. This year, we'll also include national yield estimates as well as a roundup of results in notable states that don't always make it into the mix.

Each day during the week of Aug. 11, DTN and Progressive Farmer journalists will publish detailed reports on www.dtnpf.com including yield estimates from models as well as insights from farmers, agronomists, meteorologists and others. A summary of the results will be included in the September issue of Progressive Farmer.

DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick says a dry spell in early May helped a lot of farmers get the crop in the ground, but it also left some areas struggling to break out of the dry conditions.

"That's particularly true in Nebraska, which dodged a lot of the active spring weather pattern. Parts of Iowa and northern Illinois have also been dry," he says. That's a concern given the overall hotter and drier summer forecast, especially west of the Mississippi River.

"We may see a 'tale of two halves' sort of thing this year with poorer conditions in the Western Corn Belt and fair conditions in the Eastern Corn Belt. But, timely rains can still stop disaster from occurring," Baranick says.

This is the second year the Digital Yield Tour will rely on DTN's proprietary yield models for a glimpse into how crops are faring.

DTN's yield models use a wide array of publicly available data, like satellite maps of vegetative health, often referred to as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index maps; USDA county-level yield estimates; USDA crop condition reports and more. DTN's models are unique because they draw on proprietary research into crop growth as well as DTN's historical meteorological and soil condition data at the field level to arrive at estimates.

DTN's data scientists roll that granular data up to create county-level yield estimates. County estimates are aggregated on a weighted-average basis to arrive at a state yield estimate. The models update every two weeks, and the tour will use estimates as of Aug. 1.

Unlike some other yield models, DTN's county-level yield estimates are calibrated to data from USDA's Risk Management Agency (RMA) instead of the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). USDA cut NASS county estimates because of budget constraints in 2024, but the reports were reinstated by the Trump administration.

"We're planning on sticking with RMA because it is, theoretically, the more accurate of the data sets," says John Mewes, chief scientist for DTN's ClearAg unit. That's because RMA estimates are based on crop insurance reporting, while NASS estimates are based on surveys and statistics.

The tour comes a month before USDA's first yield assessments using field data, which begin in September and provide the first publicly available examination of corn and soybean yields nationwide.

What the tour shows will be dependent on how the summer weather progresses, Baranick explains. "We'll have to wait and see how it turns out in August."

SCHEDULE:

Aug. 11 - National, Illinois, Wisconsin

Aug. 12 - Iowa, Minnesota (WASDE release)

Aug. 13 - South Dakota, North Dakota

Aug. 14 - Indiana, Ohio

Aug. 15 - Nebraska, Missouri, Kansas

Aug. 16 - Best of the Rest

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-- Read Katie's business blog at https://www.dtnpf.com/…

-- You may email Katie at katie.dehlinger@dtn.com, or follow Katie on social platform X @KatieD_DTN

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