DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

A closed low in the Great Lakes and troughing extending down into the southeastern U.S. will slowly advance east into the middle of the week with a ridge building in the West. A few troughs are still expected to move through the ridge, providing rain showers to the Corn Belt during the second half of this week. Across the Southern Plains, a trough will remain intact into the end of the week as well, giving way to daily chances for showers and storms.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

Throughout the weekend, a ridge will build into the Plains with a trough moving through the East.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

The ridge may not stick around for long in the north-central U.S. as another trough from western Canada digs south into the West next week. Ridging may still hold on across the South and keep conditions on the drier side. With the closed low in the Great Lakes, below-average temperatures will linger across the Corn Belt early this week and above-average temperatures will extend through the West. The Southern Plains will remain near to slightly below average throughout the week. Warmer temperatures return to the north-central U.S. early next week.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...121 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW MON...26 AT PETER SINKS, UT AND FOXPARK, WY AND 16 MILES WEST OF REDFEATHER LAKES, CO

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...ABILENE, TX 1.77 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

A closed low and troughing extending down into the southeastern U.S. will slowly advance east into the middle of the week with a ridge building in the West. A few troughs are still expected to move through the ridge, providing rain showers to the Corn Belt during the second half of this week. Across the Southern Plains, a trough will remain intact into the end of the week as well, giving way to daily chances for showers and storms.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

Throughout the weekend, a ridge will build into the Plains with a trough moving through the East. The ridge may not stick around for long in the north-central U.S. as another trough from western Canada digs south into the West next week. Ridging may still hold on across the South and keep conditions on the drier side. With the closed low in the Great Lakes, below-average temperatures will linger across the Corn Belt early this week and above-average temperatures will extend through the West. The Southern Plains will remain near to slightly below average throughout the week. Warmer temperatures return to the north-central U.S. early next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Some spotty rain showers tagged the eastern Dakotas this past weekend, but the region could use more rain. More widespread showers may try to tag South Dakota into northern Nebraska during the middle of the week with a second round of widespread rain showers moving through later Thursday into Friday. The second round could benefit some of the drier soils in the western Dakotas. Recent isolated coverage of showers has only led to minor improvements in drought conditions.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Parts of the Southern Plains got damaging winds and large hail from severe storms over the weekend, especially across northern Texas on Sunday. Upper-air troughing will keep the pattern active across Oklahoma and Texas this week with daily chances for showers and storms, some of which could be severe. The Central Plains are still dealing with widespread drought from northern Kansas into Nebraska, and the developing corn, soybeans, and maturing wheat could use more rain but it's expected to remain spotty this week.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A slow-moving front will provide some areas of heavier rainfall to the northwest Corn Belt Wednesday into Thursday with another system moving through on Friday. Precipitation is expected to linger in the Eastern Midwest this weekend. Southern areas of the Midwest may get more of a break this week with the storm track nudging north, allowing for soils to dry out for fieldwork.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Wet conditions continue across the Delta this week with a stalled front lingering in the area. Periods of heavy rain and severe storms are possible with the front but more rain is not needed. The rainy pattern could continue into the upcoming weekend as well. While the Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1, the risk for any tropical systems entering the Gulf of America and impacting the Delta looks minimal over the next week.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): Western areas of the Prairies stayed mostly dry over the weekend, but eastern areas saw some isolated to scattered showers.

Precipitation early this week will favor northern and eastern areas. Southern areas will see more disturbances push through during the second half of the week and into the weekend, benefiting early growth. However, more rain is still needed to make up the deficits in subsoil moisture and also help reduce wildfire threats.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A drier stretch of weather across most of the main growing areas starts on Tuesday and is expected to linger into Friday before a larger system develops late this week into the weekend across southern areas.

The potential for heavy rain this weekend threatens the harvest pace but wheat could use more rain for establishment.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): High pressure will keep conditions dry through much of the week, allowing for corn and soybean harvest to continue without precipitation disruptions. As winter wheat continues to be planted, it could use more rain, which will come by the end of the week. A storm system will form across northern Argentina Friday and continue through Saturday, providing some areas of heavy rain. While the late-week rain will be beneficial for planted wheat, it will likely slow down corn and soybean harvest for a few days.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Showers will favor northern and western areas through the first half of the week. A front will move through eastern Europe Thursday, providing spotty showers. Southern areas of Europe will remain relatively dry this week but maturing wheat should be stable given the recent rainfall. More precipitation would be beneficial next week for the wheat, but this could be spotty.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Rainfall will favor northwest areas through the first half of the week before the south and east could get in on the action by Thursday. Heavier and more consistent rain showers are needed to start making up some of the long-term deficits. Reproductive to filling wheat and developing corn will need more rain to get through the growing season, but the most consistent rain looks to stick in northwest Russia this week with a slow-moving storm system.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Southwest Australia will see scattered rain showers Tuesday, beneficial for boosting soil moisture. A slow-moving low-pressure system spinning off the southeast coast of Australia will provide some showers to coastal areas throughout the week, but areas farther inland could be on the drier side, which would harm winter wheat and canola establishment. By early next week, a storm system tracking across southern Australia could lead to better chances for widespread showers in the southeast.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Wheat harvest will begin across the North China Plain this week and drier conditions through the end of the week should lead to a good start in the harvest. Showers will become more widespread by the weekend, but the return of a drier pattern looks possible again by early next week. Developing corn and soybeans could use more rainfall, but showers will likely not be consistent enough into next week. Some of the heaviest rain will favor southeast China going into early next week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures below normal.

East: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Saturday. Temperatures near normal Tuesday, near to above normal south and below normal north Wednesday-Saturday.

East: Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday-Friday. Scattered showers Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday, mainly east.

Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Thursday. Temperatures near normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers, south. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers south Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal north and below normal south Tuesday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.

Temperatures near to above normal Sunday-Monday, near to below normal north and above normal south Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers north. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday-Friday. Scattered showers Saturday. Temperatures below normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers south. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Scattered showers southwest Saturday. Temperatures below normal south and above normal north Tuesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday.

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