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A neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (neither El Nino nor La Nina) during the spring allowed for a much more active pattern to develop, bringing through frequent periods of rainfall that were too heavy in some cases and caused flooding. For those who were dealing with drought across the Plains, the active pattern has been much more favorable, but long-term deficits are still a holdup on the outlook for summer.

The middle of the country is likely going to need that moisture. I hesitate to even mention this, but as I write in May, the top analog year on DTN's list is 2012, a monster of a drought year in recent times. In no way do I believe that 2025 will turn out to have the exact same effects as 2012. But, there are some striking similarities in the ocean temperatures and drought setup between the two years. Other hot and dry years such as 2001, 2011 and 2021 rank high on the list, as well, though the hazardous conditions existed in different parts of the central U.S. in each of those years.

Pacific Northwest (Idaho, Oregon and Washington): An overall active spring weather pattern has set up the region in good shape for the summer growing season. That probably will be needed, as the forecast calls for an overall hot and dry summer. What may start out as a good-looking crop could turn sour if the heat and dryness come too early in the season.

Southwest: This region continues to have a very stable drought situation going into the summer, and the lack of snowpack to feed local rivers could run out sooner rather than later. However, the monsoon season is forecast to be on the more active side. While that typically doesn't begin until the second half of July, that could save some areas with timely rainfall. Otherwise, the long-duration drought continues.

Northern Plains: An active pattern in spring allowed drought-reducing rains to fall across a majority of the region. Though long-duration rainfall deficits mean that drought is still in place, topsoil moisture has been better without much concern for flooding. Unfortunately, a hot and dry forecast this summer could eat away at those moisture reserves quickly. This region may have to bank on timely rains to produce a good crop.

Central and Southern Plains: The weather pattern turned out to be much more favorable than the forecast during the spring. While plenty of areas still have deficits and drought, most of the region escaped the fears of a very dry spring, more favorable for those who grow wheat and forages. However, the more important summer season is forecast to be awfully hot and dry, and those with deficits should see them grow, while others will see them develop. Timely rains will be needed to save the crop from significant damage.

Coastal Texas and Louisiana: Periodic rainfall, sometimes very heavy, has been beneficial for much of the region this spring, though some areas of Texas have been lacking. Unlike most in the middle of the country, the forecast here is for equal chances of precipitation, though temperatures are forecast to be higher than normal. We may have to watch for some tropical systems in the Gulf, however.

Midwest: A very active pattern in the spring brought widespread precipitation through the region. That helped to reduce and eliminate drought across the north but caused major flooding in April across the south. The buildup of moisture for much of the region will be helpful this summer, though, as the forecast calls for largely hotter and drier conditions. Those in the east may just luck out on some more frequent systems and thunderstorms, which would also keep the heat down. Meanwhile, those in the west share the same outlook as the Plains, with much hotter and drier conditions that may overstress crops, with the region relying on timely rains for good production.

Deltaâ??/â??Lower Mississippi Valley: Drought was never a problem this spring, but flooding has been. Heavy rain across the north in April swelled the Mississippi River over its banks for a long time. Planting may have been slower, but stretches of drier weather have helped folks from getting too far behind. This region is forecast to be on the edge of some hotter and drier weather to the west and milder, wetter weather to the east and could go either way. The soil moisture built up over the spring may save some crops from seeing too much stress.

Mid-Atlantic and Northeast: An "active enough" pattern in the spring continued to slowly eat away at the drought in the region, though pockets still exist, especially near the coast. Unlike those to the west, a milder and wetter pattern is forecast for the summer, favoring plentiful rainfall chances to help ease drought and create overall good growing conditions. Severe weather may be more of a factor this summer, though.

Southeast: Without La Nina this spring, the region ended up seeing many systems move into and through the region. Though some areas of drought have occurred where systems regularly missed, those areas also saw only limited drought occurring. This summer should be another active one, according to DTN, with a more favorable mild and wet pattern for much of the season. Hotter and drier stretches will almost certainly happen, and the popup nature to showers may miss some areas more frequently, so we could still see drought developing. But, we'll also be watching the Gulf for potential tropical systems that would eliminate that concern.

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-- You may email John at john.baranick@dtn.com

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