Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Storms will develop across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys later Monday, some of which could be severe. The Western Corn Belt could see some heavier rainfall during the second half of the week while soaking rains develop in southern Brazil and northern Argentina late this week. These are the weather factors driving the markets on Monday.

HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST MIDWEST THIS WEEK

Isolated to scattered showers and a few storms impacted the region over the weekend, and the Eastern Midwest will continue to see showers and storms on Monday as a low-pressure system in southern Canada advances east. A slow-moving front will provide some areas of heavier rainfall to the northwest Corn Belt Wednesday into Thursday with another system moving through on Friday. Precipitation is expected to linger in the Eastern Midwest this weekend. Southern areas of the Midwest may get more of a break this week with the storm track nudging north, allowing for soils to dry out for fieldwork.

SPOTTY SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH MORE RAIN ON THE WAY FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS

Parts of the Southern Plains got damaging winds and large hail from severe storms over the weekend, especially across northern Texas on Sunday. Upper air troughing will keep the pattern active across Oklahoma and Texas this week with daily chances for showers and storms, some of which could be severe. The Central Plains are still dealing with widespread drought from northern Kansas into Nebraska, and the developing corn, soybeans, and maturing wheat could use more rain, but it's expected to remain spotty this week.

LATE-WEEK SYSTEM TO PROVIDE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS

Some spotty rain showers tagged the eastern Dakotas this past weekend, but the region could use more rain. More widespread showers may try to tag South Dakota into northern Nebraska during the middle of the week with a second round of widespread rain showers moving through later Thursday into Friday. The second round could benefit some of the drier soils in the western Dakotas. Recent isolated coverage of showers has only led to minor improvements in drought conditions.

STALLED FRONT IN THE DELTA THIS WEEK

Wet conditions continue across the Delta this week with a stalled front lingering in the area. Periods of heavy rain and severe storms are possible with the front, but more rain is not needed. The rainy pattern could continue into the upcoming weekend as well. While the Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1, the risk for any tropical systems entering the Gulf of Mexico (Gulf of America) and impacting the Delta looks minimal over the next week.

RAIN SHOWERS LOOK PROMISING FOR THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Western areas of the Prairies stayed mostly dry over the weekend, but eastern areas saw some isolated to scattered showers. Precipitation early this week will favor northern and eastern areas. Southern areas will see more disturbances push through during the second half of the week and into the weekend, benefiting early growth. However, more rain is still needed to make up the deficits in subsoil moisture and also help reduce wildfire threats.

HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL BY THIS WEEKEND

A lingering front across southern safrinha corn areas remains active through Monday, bringing somewhat favorable rainfall to corn that is still filling. On the other hand, it's slowing down the harvest progress that's beginning. During the middle of the week, a drier stretch is expected before a larger system develops late this week into the weekend across southern areas. The potential for heavy rain threatens the harvest pace but wheat could use more rain for establishment.

SHOWERS REMAIN LIMITED IN THE BLACK SEA

Rainfall will favor northwest areas through the first half of the week before the south and east could get in on the action by Thursday. Heavier and more consistent rain showers are needed to start making up some of the long-term deficits. Reproductive to filling wheat and developing corn will need more rain to get through the growing season, but the most consistent rain looks to stick in northwest Russia this week with a slow-moving storm system.

WHEAT HARVEST BEGINS IN CHINA THIS WEEK

Wheat harvest will begin across the North China Plain this week and scattered showers are expected Monday before returning late this week. Developing corn and soybeans could use more rainfall, but showers will likely not be consistent enough into next week. Some of the heaviest rain will favor southeast China going into early next week.

Teresa Wells can be reached at teresa.wells@dtn.com

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