DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is trough in east-central Canada with a disturbance in the Midwest and another in the Southwest. These features will push eastward through the weekend. A trough will slide back into Central Canada and the Great Lakes this weekend, sticking around into the middle of next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A ridge that moves into the West this weekend will push the trough out and take its place midweek and we should see a new trough digging into the West late next week. A ridge should form across the South by next weekend and force a bigger pattern change that may be the start of our hotter and drier summer forecast around the middle of the month.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

Daily showers may continue across the South from an old, stalled front throughout the week. Another system should move through northern areas mid-late next week and possibly another over the weekend as well. Both systems could produce widespread showers in the Plains, with variable precipitation through the Midwest.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...110 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA AND STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA

LOW THU...21 AT MACKAY, ID

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...CHARLOTTE, NC 1.40 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is trough in east-central Canada with a disturbance in the Midwest and another in the Southwest. These features will push eastward through the weekend. A trough will slide back into Central Canada and the Great Lakes this weekend, sticking around into the middle of next week. A ridge that moves into the West this weekend will push the trough out and take its place midweek and we should see a new trough digging into the West late next week. A ridge should form across the South by next weekend and force a bigger pattern change that may be the start of our hotter and drier summer forecast around the middle of the month.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

Daily showers may continue across the South from an old, stalled front throughout the week. Another system should move through northern areas mid-late next week and possibly another over the weekend as well. Both systems could produce widespread showers in the Plains, with variable precipitation through the Midwest.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Isolated showers have been in the region all week, though a batch of moderate rain moved through South Dakota on Thursday. A system should move through Canada this weekend with scatter d showers through eastern areas as well. And we will watch for additional chances later next week and weekend from a couple of storm systems. The region needs the rain, as drought still covers a widespread area, though it has decreased in coverage over the last few weeks.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): The region has been very active this week with widespread areas of heavy rain for many areas. Drought reduction has continued, though some areas have endured flooding. Another system moves through the region Friday and Saturday, and showers should continue on Sunday into next week across the south. Systems going through the north later next week and weekend could still produce scattered showers for the region. Overall, the rain should help filling wheat and developing corn and soybeans going into next week, but may bog down some more advanced wheat that is starting to mature.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front brought widespread showers and thunderstorms through the region, producing areas of heavy rain. Only small areas like eastern Iowa and Ohio missed out on the rainfall. Another system or two will move along the front into the weekend with more scattered showers. Another system will move into the Great Lakes this weekend with even more showers into early next week. And we should see systems moving through the region later next week and weekend to produce even more rain. Though large parts of Iowa and the surrounding areas received heavier rain early this week, this part of the region is expected to see less rainfall through next week. For wetter areas across the south and east, the rain is keeping soils wet as producers have a hard time finishing up planting or doing other fieldwork.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): A front is stalled out across the north but will get pushed south this weekend and stall through the middle of the region for all of next week. That zone may shift slightly north and south at times next week, but periods of heavy rain and severe weather are forecast around the front. Overly wet conditions continue across a wide area of the region and the coming rain will not be helpful. We will also keep an eye on the Gulf for a potential tropical system next week.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): Isolated showers have been falling this week, but have been light. A system will move through this weekend, though any significant showers are forecast for only eastern areas. Disturbances moving through behind it next week could fill in some showers though, too. With planting all but finished, rainfall is needed in several areas for proper germination and early growth. Many areas of the region are drying out quickly and in real need of rain.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A front stalled out across southern safrinha corn areas has been and continues to be active through Monday, bringing somewhat favorable rainfall to corn that is still filling. Harvest has begun though, and will increase throughout the month of June, so this rainfall will not be overly helpful for the crop. Far southern wheat areas are forecast to stay drier, which could use some rain for establishment.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): With corn and soybean harvest well underway, recent frosts were not damaging. Winter wheat planting continues to ramp up through the month of June but is in need of some rain in areas that were not flooded in May. Dry conditions continue well into next week with the next chance for rain late next week.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers will continue to favor northern areas through the weekend, but there will be areas that miss out. There have been spots in western France and eastern Germany that did not receive much precipitation from this more active pattern. Drier conditions across the south are noteworthy, but recent rainfall should stem the tide of a drier pattern there for the next two weeks and may be beneficial for wheat that is closing in on maturity. Largely drier conditions are expected for the bulk of next week, with a system moving into western areas late in the week with spotty showers.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Several systems continue to move across the region through next week, but they are favoring the northwest with rainfall, while leaving the south and east much drier. Long-term deficits continue in many areas, including western Russia, and the lack of soil moisture is concerning for reproductive to filling wheat and developing corn.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Recent showers in Western Australia have been widespread and should boost soil moisture, though this region needs more. The system responsible has moved into southeastern Australia and will continue showers there into early next week and bring needed showers to some areas in extreme drought, which is harming winter wheat and canola establishment.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Systems have been largely bypassing central China over the last couple of months, favoring areas south of the Yangtze River and in the northeast. Filling wheat on the North China Plain has had harsher conditions to end their season and it is too late for much help. Harvest begins next week. Corn and soybeans in this region could also be facing tougher conditions early in the growth stages. Models start to come more alive mid-month with rainfall chances, so this may be temporary, but amounts will be critical going forward.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Tuesday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday, near normal Saturday-Sunday, near to below normal Monday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, above normal Friday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday, south Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday, mostly north. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday-Sunday, below normal Monday-Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers south. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers south through Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday, near to above normal Monday, below normal south and above normal north Tuesday.

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