Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- More widespread rain through the U.S., drying conditions in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies, and patches of dryness in the Black Sea region, China, and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Thursday.

RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST

A front is bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms through the Midwest, producing areas of heavy rain. Another system or two will move along the front into the weekend with more scattered showers. Another system will move into the Great Lakes this weekend with even more showers into early next week. Though parts of Iowa and the surrounding areas received heavier rain early this week, this part of the region is expected to see less rainfall and has seen drought expand lately. More rainfall is possible later next week and weekend. For wetter areas across the south and east, the rain is keeping soils wet as producers have a hard time finishing up planting.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS CONTINUING FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front continued to produce scattered showers across the southeastern Plains on Wednesday. Another system moves through the region with more rain for Thursday and Friday and we could see showers continuing into the weekend as well, especially south. All of these disturbances are adding up to some areas of heavy rain, though there are some areas that may miss out. Overall, the rain should help filling wheat and developing corn and soybeans going into next week, but may bog down some more advanced wheat that is starting to mature.

SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Some isolated showers continue in the Northern Plains through Friday, though a batch of moderate rain should move through South Dakota on Thursday. A system should move through Canada this weekend and could bring some more showers through eastern areas as well. And we will watch for additional chances later next week and weekend from a couple of storm systems. The region needs the rain, as drought still covers a widespread area, though it has decreased in coverage over the last few weeks.

SCATTERED SHOWERS, MORE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR DELTA

A front is stalled out across the northern Delta for the next few days, then will get pushed south this weekend and stall through the middle of the region for next week. That zone may shift slightly north and south with time next week, but periods of heavy rain and severe weather are forecast around the front. Overly wet conditions continue across a wide area of the region and the coming rain will not be helpful. We will also keep an eye on the Gulf for a potential tropical system next week.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR EASTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS WEEKEND

Isolated showers continue in the Canadian Prairies for the next couple of days, but will be spotty and light. A system will move through this weekend, though any significant showers are forecast for only eastern areas. Disturbances moving through behind it next week could fill in some showers though, too. With planting all but finished, rainfall is needed in several areas for proper germination and early growth. Many areas of the region are drying out quickly and in real need of rain.

WAVES OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A front stalled out across southern Brazil's safrinha corn areas should be active multiple times over the next week, bringing somewhat favorable rainfall to corn that is still filling. Harvest has begun though, and will increase throughout the month of June, so this rainfall will not be overly helpful for the crop. Southern wheat areas are forecast to stay drier, which could use some rain for establishment.

WETTER PATTERN FOR NORTHERN EUROPE CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND

Scattered showers will continue to favor northern Europe through the weekend, but there will be areas that miss out. France may have larger sections in the north that did not see much rainfall from the busier weather pattern. Drier conditions across the south are noteworthy, but recent rainfall should stem the tide of a drier pattern there for the next two weeks and may be beneficial for wheat that is closing in on maturity.

DROUGHT EXPANDING IN EASTERN BLACK SEA REGION

Several systems continue to move across the Black Sea region through next week, but they are favoring the northwest with rainfall, while leaving the south and east much drier. Long-term deficits continue in many areas, and drought is expanding, including western Russia. The lack of soil moisture is concerning for reproductive to filling wheat and developing corn.

EASTERN AUSTRALIA COULD SEE SOME RAIN THIS WEEKEND

Recent showers in Western Australia have been widespread and should boost soil moisture, though this region needs more. The system responsible could hang around southeastern Australia into early next week and bring needed showers to some areas in extreme drought, which is harming winter wheat and canola establishment.

CENTRAL CHINA STILL STAYING MOSTLY DRY

Systems have been bypassing central China, favoring areas south of the Yangtze River and in the northeast. Filling wheat on the North China Plain has had harsher conditions to end their season and it is too late for much help. Harvest begins next week. Corn and soybeans in this region could also be facing tougher conditions early in the growth stages. Models start to come more alive mid-month with rainfall chances, so this may be temporary, but amounts will be critical going forward.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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