DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is trough in central Canada with a disturbance in the Southwest. Both of these features will push eastward through the weekend. A trough will slide back into Central Canada and the Great Lakes this weekend, sticking around into the middle of next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A ridge that moves into the West this weekend will push the trough out and take its place midweek and we should see a new trough digging into the West late next week. A ridge should form across the South by the end of the week and force a bigger pattern change that may be the start of our hotter and drier summer forecast around the middle of the month.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar with the pattern, but not with the details. I will use a blend but favor the ensembles of both, which are relatively similar.

Some heavier rain may continue across the South from an old, stalled front throughout the week. Another system may move through northern areas mid-late next week and possibly another over the weekend as well. We will also be keeping an eye on the tropics, as a disturbance may try to form in the Gulf next week, though the tendency in the models is for this to not develop.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...107 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW WED...18 AT MACKAY, ID

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...SPRINGFIELD, MO 2.93 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is trough in central Canada with a disturbance in the Southwest. Both of these features will push eastward through the weekend. A trough will slide back into Central Canada and the Great Lakes this weekend, sticking around into the middle of next week. A ridge that moves into the West this weekend will push the trough out and take its place midweek and we should see a new trough digging into the West late next week. A ridge should form across the South by the end of the week and force a bigger pattern change that may be the start of our hotter and drier summer forecast around the middle of the month.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar with the pattern, but not with the details. I will use a blend but favor the ensembles of both, which are relatively similar.

Some heavier rain may continue across the South from an old, stalled front throughout the week. Another system may move through northern areas mid-late next week and possibly another over the weekend as well. We will also be keeping an eye on the tropics, as a disturbance may try to form in the Gulf next week, though the tendency in the models is for this to not develop.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Some isolated showers continue through Friday, though a batch of moderate rain should move through South Dakota on Thursday. A system should move through Canada this weekend and could bring some more showers through eastern areas as well. And we will watch for additional chances later next week and weekend from a couple of storm systems.

The region needs the rain, as drought still covers a widespread area, though it has decreased in coverage over the last few weeks.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front continued to produce scattered showers across the southeast on Wednesday.

Another system moves through the region with more rain for Thursday and Friday and we could see showers continuing into the weekend as well, especially south.

All of these disturbances are adding up to some areas of heavy rain, though there are some areas that may miss out. Overall, the rain should help filling wheat and developing corn and soybeans going into next week, but may bog down some more advanced wheat that is starting to mature.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front is bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms through the region, producing areas of heavy rain.

Another system or two will move along the front into the weekend with more scattered showers. Another system will move into the Great Lakes this weekend with even more showers into early next week. Though Iowa and the surrounding areas received heavier rain early this week, this part of the region is expected to see less rainfall, but more rainfall is possible later next week and weekend. For wetter areas across the south and east, the rain is keeping soils wet as producers have a hard time finishing up planting.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): A front is stalled out across the north for the next few days, then will get pushed south this weekend and stall through the middle of the region for next week. That zone may shift slightly north and south with time next week, but periods of heavy rain and severe weather are forecast around the front. Overly wet conditions continue across a wide area of the region and the coming rain will not be helpful. We will also keep an eye on the Gulf for a potential tropical system next week.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): Isolated showers continue throughout the week, but will be spotty and light. A system will move through this weekend, though any significant showers are forecast for only eastern areas.

Disturbances moving through behind it next week could fill in some showers though, too. With planting all but finished, rainfall is needed in several areas for proper germination and early growth. Many areas of the region are drying out quickly and in real need of rain.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A front stalled out across southern safrinha corn areas should be active multiple times through Monday, bringing somewhat favorable rainfall to corn that is still filling. Harvest has begun though, and will increase throughout the month of June, so this rainfall will not be overly helpful for the crop. Southern wheat areas are forecast to stay drier, which could use some rain for establishment.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): With corn and soybean harvest well underway, recent frosts were not damaging. Winter wheat planting continues to ramp up through the month of June but is in need of some rain in areas that were not flooded in May. Dry conditions continue well into next week with the next chance for rain late next week.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers will continue to favor northern areas through the weekend, but there will be areas that miss out. France may have larger sections in the north that did not see much rainfall from the busier weather pattern. Drier conditions across the south are noteworthy, but recent rainfall should stem the tide of a drier pattern there for the next two weeks and may be beneficial for wheat that is closing in on maturity.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Several systems continue to move across the region through next week, but they are favoring the northwest with rainfall, while leaving the south and east much drier. Long-term deficits continue in many areas, including western Russia, and the lack of soil moisture is concerning for reproductive to filling wheat and developing corn.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Recent showers in Western Australia have been widespread and should boost soil moisture, though this region needs more. The system responsible could hang around southeastern Australia into early next week and bring needed showers to some areas in extreme drought, which is harming winter wheat and canola establishment.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Systems have been bypassing central China, favoring areas south of the Yangtze River and in the northeast. Filling wheat on the North China Plain has had harsher conditions to end their season and it is too late for much help. Harvest begins next week. Corn and soybeans in this region could also be facing tougher conditions early in the growth stages. Models start to come more alive mid-month with rainfall chances, so this may be temporary, but amounts will be critical going forward.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers south. Temperatures near to below normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to below normal through Monday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday-Friday, near normal Saturday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, above normal Friday-Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to below normal through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday, mostly north.

Temperatures above normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Sunday, near to below normal Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers south through Monday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

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