DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is trough in central Canada with a disturbance in the Southwest and another in the Midwest. All of these features will push eastward this week, and the multiple disturbances are bringing through a lot of precipitation. A trough will slide back into Central Canada and the Great Lakes this weekend, sticking around into the middle of next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A ridge that moves into the West this weekend will push the trough out and take its place midweek and we should see a new trough digging into the West late next week. A ridge should form across the South by the end of the week and force a bigger pattern change that may be the start of our hotter and drier summer forecast around the middle of the month.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar with the pattern, but not with the details. But both produce a lot of rain across the country into next week. I will use a blend but favor the ensembles of both, which are relatively similar.

A system should spin in the Great Lakes early next week with scattered showers. Some heavier rain may continue farther south from an old, stalled front throughout the week. Another system may move through northern areas mid-late next week and possibly another over the weekend as well. We will also be keeping an eye on the tropics, as a disturbance may try to form off the Carolina Coast on Wednesday or Thursday, or in the Gulf next week. Models are unsure as they often are this time of year.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...109 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA AND STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA

LOW TUE...19 AT 32 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF BYNUM, MT AND WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS, MT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...WICHITA, KS 2.94 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is trough in central Canada with a disturbance in the Southwest and another in the Midwest. All of these features will push eastward this week, and the multiple disturbances are bringing through a lot of precipitation. A trough will slide back into Central Canada and the Great Lakes this weekend, sticking around into the middle of next week. A ridge that moves into the West this weekend will push the trough out and take its place midweek and we should see a new trough digging into the West late next week. A ridge should form across the South by the end of the week and force a bigger pattern change that may be the start of our hotter and drier summer forecast around the middle of the month.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar with the pattern, but not with the details. But both produce a lot of rain across the country into next week. I will use a blend but favor the ensembles of both, which are relatively similar.

A system should spin in the Great Lakes early next week with scattered showers. Some heavier rain may continue farther south from an old, stalled front throughout the week. Another system may move through northern areas mid-late next week and possibly another over the weekend as well. We will also be keeping an eye on the tropics, as a disturbance may try to form off the Carolina Coast on Wednesday or Thursday, or in the Gulf next week. Models are unsure as they often are this time of year.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Some isolated showers may may in the colder air in place throughout the rest of the week. A system should move through Canada this weekend and could bring some more showers through eastern areas as well. And we will watch for additional chances later next week and weekend from a couple of storm systems. The region needs the rain, as drought still covers a widespread area, though it has decreased in coverage over the last few weeks. Cooler temperatures are forecast over the next couple of days, but generally mild conditions are favored through next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front and system continued to produce scattered showers and heavy rain on Tuesday, continuing the trend farther south than Monday. The front continues across the south on Wednesday. Another system follows behind it with more rain for Thursday and Friday and we could see showers continuing into the weekend as well, especially south. All of those disturbances are adding up to some areas of heavy rain, though there are some areas that may miss out. Overall, the rain should help filling wheat and developing corn and soybeans going into next week, but may bog down some more advanced wheat that is starting to mature.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front is bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms through the region, producing areas of heavy rain in the northwest over the last couple of days, including some very dry areas in Iowa, northern Missouri, and Illinois. It will sort of stall out across the south where showers continue the next couple of days. Another system along the front will come through Thursday night and Friday with more scattered showers.

Additional fronts will move through this weekend and next week, keeping the active pattern going through mid-June. For drier areas across the north, the pattern is favorable. But for wetter areas across the south and east, the forecast keeps soils looking wet as producers have a hard time finishing up planting.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): A front will move close to the northern end of the region on Wednesday and stall out for a few days, then get pushed south this weekend and stall through the middle of the region for next week. Models are unsure exactly where, but a lot of precipitation is forecast where the front stalls. That zone may shift slightly north and south with time next week as well. Overly wet conditions continue across a wide area of the region and the coming rain will not be helpful. We will also keep an eye on the Gulf for potential tropical systems next week.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): Isolated showers continue throughout the week, but will be spotty and light. A system will move through this weekend, though any significant showers are forecast for only eastern areas.

Disturbances moving through behind it next week could fill in some showers though, too. With planting all but finished, rainfall is needed in several areas for proper germination and early growth. Many areas of the region are drying out quickly and in real need of rain.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A front stalled out across southern safrinha corn areas should be active multiple times over the next week, bringing somewhat favorable rainfall to corn that is still filling. Harvest has begun though, and will increase throughout the month of June, so this rainfall will not be overly helpful for the crop. Southern wheat areas are forecast to stay drier, which could use some rain for establishment.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): With corn and soybean harvest well underway, recent frosts were not damaging. Winter wheat planting continues to ramp up through the month of June but is in need of some rain in areas that were not flooded in May. Dry conditions continue well into next week with the next chance for rain late next week.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers will continue to favor northern areas through the weekend, but there will be areas that miss out. France may have larger sections in the north that do not see much rainfall. Drier conditions across the south are noteworthy, but recent rainfall should stem the tide of a drier pattern there for the next two weeks and may be beneficial for wheat that is closing in on maturity.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Several systems will move across the region through next week, but they are favoring the northwest with rainfall, while leaving the south and east much drier. Long-term deficits continue in many areas, including western Russia, and the lack of soil moisture is concerning for reproductive to filling wheat and developing corn.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Recent showers in Western Australia have been widespread and should boost soil moisture, though this region needs more. The system responsible could hang around southeastern Australia later this week into early next week and bring scattered showers to some areas in extreme drought, which is harming winter wheat and canola establishment.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Systems continue to bypass central China, favoring areas south of the Yangtze River and in the northeast. Filling wheat on the North China Plain has had harsher conditions to end their season and it is too late for much help. Harvest begins later next week. Corn and soybeans in this region could also be facing tougher conditions early in the growth stages. Models start to come more alive mid-month, so this may be temporary, but amounts will be critical.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures falling.

East: Scattered showers west. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday, near normal Saturday-Sunday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday, near normal Saturday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, above normal Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures falling.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures below normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday, mostly north.

Temperatures above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers south through Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday.

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