Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- More widespread rain through the U.S., drying conditions in the Canadian Prairies, and patches of dryness in the Black Sea region, China, and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Tuesday.

MORE ROUNDS OF RAIN FOR THE MIDWEST

A front started to move into the Midwest Monday night and is bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. It will stall out for a day or two across the south where heavy rain may accumulate. Another system along the front will come through Thursday night and Friday with showers that may or may not be widespread. Models are still trying to decide. Additional fronts will move through this weekend and next week, keeping the active pattern going through mid-June. For drier areas across the north, the pattern is favorable. But for wetter areas across the south and east, the forecast keeps soils looking wet as producers have a hard time finishing up planting.

HEAVY RAIN FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

A front and system combined to produce heavy rain in Nebraska and scattered showers elsewhere in the Central and Southern Plains on Monday, and will continue to sweep through the region through Wednesday. Another system follows behind it with more rain for Thursday and Friday and we could see showers continuing into the weekend as well. All of those disturbances should bring some areas of heavy rain through the region yet again, though there are some areas that may miss out. Models are still working out the specifics, but it looks like a good week for precipitation again. That should help filling wheat and developing corn and soybeans going into next week.

ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A front brought scattered showers through the Northern Plains Sunday night into Monday, but amounts were disappointing outside of parts of central Montana. Some isolated showers may follow in the colder air behind the front throughout the rest of the week. A system should move through Canada this weekend and could bring some more showers through eastern areas as well. And we will watch for additional chances next week from a couple of storm systems. The region needs the rain, as drought still covers a widespread area, though it has decreased in coverage over the last few weeks. Cooler temperatures are forecast behind the first system over the next couple of days, but generally mild conditions are favored through next week.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR DELTA

A front will move close to the northern end of the Delta on Wednesday and stall out for a few days, then get pushed south this weekend and stall through the middle of the region for next week. Models are unsure exactly where, but a lot of precipitation is forecast where the front stalls. That zone may shift slightly north and south with time next week as well. Overly wet conditions continue across a wide area of the region and the coming rain will not be helpful. We will also keep an eye on the Gulf for potential tropical systems next week.

DISAPPOINTING RAINFALL FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS WEEK

A system brought limited showers to Alberta and the southeastern Canadian Prairies over the last couple of days. Showers were lighter than hoped for. Isolated showers may continue throughout the week but will be very spotty and light. A system is possible this weekend, though models are reducing the rainfall with this system and bringing it mostly to eastern areas. Disturbances moving through behind it next week could fill in some showers though, too. With planting all but finished, rainfall is needed in several areas for proper germination and early growth. Many areas of the region are drying out quickly and in real need of rain.

WAVES OF SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL

A front stalled out across southern Brazil's safrinha corn areas could be active multiple times over the next week, bringing somewhat favorable rainfall to corn that is still filling. Harvest has begun though, and will increase throughout the month of June, so this rainfall will not be overly helpful for the crop. Southern wheat areas are forecast to stay drier, which could use some rain for establishment.

WETTER PATTERN FOR NORTHERN EUROPE

Scattered showers will continue to favor northern Europe throughout the week, but there will be plenty of areas that miss out. France may have larger sections of the country that do not see much rainfall. While northern areas are seeing rainfall, it's coming in patches that are missing some areas, too. Drier conditions across the south are noteworthy, but recent rainfall should stem the tide of a drier pattern there for the next two weeks.

EASTERN BLACK SEA REGION DRYING OUT AGAIN

Several systems will move through the Black Sea region over the next two weeks, but they are favoring the northwest with rainfall, while leaving the south and east much drier. Long-term deficits continue in many areas, including western Russia, and the lack of soil moisture is concerning for reproductive to filling wheat and developing corn.

EASTERN AUSTRALIA COULD SEE MORE RAIN THIS WEEKEND

Scattered showers moved into Western Australia Sunday night and will be possible through Wednesday. The rainfall will be much appreciated, though amounts are spotty. A little disturbance moving through eastern Australia brought some showers as well, but with very little coverage. The western system could hang around southeastern Australia later this week into early next week. Any rainfall there will be welcomed under the intensifying drought which has been unfavorable for winter wheat and canola establishment.

CENTRAL CHINA STILL STAYING MOSTLY DRY

Systems continue to bypass central China in early June, favoring areas south of the Yangtze River and in the northeast. Filling wheat on the North China Plain has had harsher conditions to end their season and could see additional stress before harvest begins in mid-June. Corn and soybeans in this region could also be facing tougher conditions early in the growth stages. Models start to come more alive mid-month, so this may be temporary.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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