DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is trough in central Canada with a disturbance in the Southwest and another in the Central Plains. All of these features will push eastward this week, and the multiple disturbances are bringing through a lot of precipitation. A trough will slide back into Central Canada and the Great Lakes this weekend, sticking around into the middle of next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A ridge that moves into the West this weekend will push the trough out and take its place midweek and we should see a new trough digging into the West mid-late week. A ridge should form across the South by the end of the week and force a bigger pattern change that may be the start of our hotter and drier summer forecast around the middle of the month.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar with the pattern, but not with the details. But both produce a lot of rain across the country this week into next week. I will use a blend but favor the ensembles of both, which are relatively similar.

A system should move through Canada and then the Great Lakes over the weekend into early next week with scattered showers. Some heavier rain may continue farther south from an old, stalled front. Another system may move through northern areas mid-late next week and possibly another over the weekend as well. We will also be keeping an eye on the tropics, as a disturbance may try to form off the Carolina Coast on Wednesday or Thursday, or in the Gulf next week. Models are unsure as they often are this time of year.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...108 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW MON...25 AT FRENCHGLEN, OR AND SISTERS, OR

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...MIAMI BEACH, FL 3.51 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is trough in central Canada with a disturbance in the Southwest and another in the Central Plains. All of these features will push eastward this week, and the multiple disturbances are bringing through a lot of precipitation. A trough will slide back into Central Canada and the Great Lakes this weekend, sticking around into the middle of next week. A ridge that moves into the West this weekend will push the trough out and take its place midweek and we should see a new trough digging into the West mid-late week. A ridge should form across the South by the end of the week and force a bigger pattern change that may be the start of our hotter and drier summer forecast around the middle of the month.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar with the pattern, but not with the details. But both produce a lot of rain across the country this week into next week. I will use a blend but favor the ensembles of both, which are relatively similar.

A system should move through Canada and then the Great Lakes over the weekend into early next week with scattered showers. Some heavier rain may continue farther south from an old, stalled front. Another system may move through northern areas mid-late next week and possibly another over the weekend as well. We will also be keeping an eye on the tropics, as a disturbance may try to form off the Carolina Coast on Wednesday or Thursday, or in the Gulf next week. Models are unsure as they often are this time of year.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front brought scattered showers through the region Sunday night into Monday, but amounts were disappointing outside of parts of central Montana. Some isolated showers may follow in the colder air behind the front throughout the rest of the week. A system should move through Canada this weekend and could bring some more showers through eastern areas as well. And we will watch for additional chances next week from a couple of storm systems. The region needs the rain, as drought still covers a widespread area, though it has decreased in coverage over the last few weeks. Cooler temperatures are forecast behind the first system over the next couple of days, but generally mild conditions are favored through next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front and system combined to produce heavy rain in Nebraska and scattered showers elsewhere on Monday, and will continue to sweep through the region through Wednesday. Another system follows behind it with more rain for Thursday and Friday and we could see showers continuing into the weekend as well. All of those disturbances should bring some areas of heavy rain through the region yet again, though there are some areas that may miss out. Models are still working out the specifics, but it looks like a good week for precipitation again. That should help filling wheat and developing corn and soybeans going into next week.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front started to move into the region Monday night and is bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. It will stall out for a day or two across the south where heavy rain may accumulate. Another system along the front will come through Thursday night and Friday with showers that may or may not be widespread. Models are still trying to decide. Additional fronts will move through this weekend and next week, keeping the active pattern going through mid-June. For drier areas across the north, the pattern is favorable. But for wetter areas across the south and east, the forecast keeps soils looking wet as producers have a hard time finishing up planting.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): A front will move close to the northern end of the region on Wednesday and stall out for a few days, then get pushed south this weekend and stall through the middle of the region for next week. Models are unsure exactly where, but a lot of precipitation is forecast where the front stalls. That zone may shift slightly north and south with time next week as well. Overly wet conditions continue across a wide area of the region and the coming rain will not be helpful. We will also keep an eye on the Gulf for potential tropical systems next week.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): A system brought limited showers to Alberta and the southeastern over the last couple of days. Showers were lighter than hoped for. Isolated showers may continue throughout the week, but be very spotty and light. A system is possible this weekend, though models are reducing the rainfall with this system and bringing it mostly to eastern areas.

Disturbances moving through behind it next week could fill in some showers though, too. With planting all but finished, rainfall is needed in several areas for proper germination and early growth. Many areas of the region are drying out quickly and in real need of rain.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A front stalled out across southern safrinha corn areas could be active multiple times over the next week, bringing somewhat favorable rainfall to corn that is still filling. Harvest has begun though, and will increase throughout the month of June, so this rainfall will not be overly helpful for the crop. Southern wheat areas are forecast to stay drier, which could use some rain for establishment.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): It was dry and cold over the weekend, with widespread frosts across much of the country going back to last week, especially in the south and west. With corn and soybean harvest underway, the frosts are not damaging, but could slow growth for winter wheat. That crop continues to ramp up planting through the month of June but is in need of some rain in areas that were not flooded in May.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers will continue to favor northern areas throughout the week, but there will be plenty of areas that miss out.

France may have larger sections of the country that do not see much rainfall.

While northern areas are seeing rainfall, it's coming in patches that are missing some areas, too. Drier conditions across the south are noteworthy, but recent rainfall should stem the tide of a drier pattern there for the next two weeks.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Several systems will move through over the next two weeks, but they are favoring the northwest with rainfall, while leaving the south and east much drier. Long-term deficits continue in many areas, including western Russia, and the lack of soil moisture is concerning for reproductive to filling wheat and developing corn.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers moved into Western Australia Sunday night and will be possible through Wednesday. The rainfall will be much-appreciated, though amounts are spotty. A little disturbance moving through eastern Australia brought some showers as well, but with very little coverage. The western system could hang around southeastern Australia later this week into early next week. Any rainfall there will be welcomed under the intensifying drought which has been unfavorable for winter wheat and canola establishment.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Systems continue to bypass central China in early June, favoring areas south of the Yangtze River and in the northeast. Filling wheat on the North China Plain has had harsher conditions to end their season and could see additional stress before harvest begins in mid-June. Corn and soybeans in this region could also be facing tougher conditions early in the growth stages. Models start to come more alive mid-month, so this may be temporary.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers north. Temperatures above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures falling Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near normal Friday-Saturday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Friday, near normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.

Temperatures near normal Sunday, near to below normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Thursday.

Temperatures near to below normal Sunday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday, mostly north.

Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers south through Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday.

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