DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is trough in the East with another in central Canada and a couple of disturbances in the West. Everything will push eastward this week, and the multiple disturbances should bring through a lot of precipitation.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

A trough will slide back into Central Canada this weekend and a few reinforcing impulses should keep this trough around through the bulk of next week as well. Ridges will do their best to contain the trough by hanging off the East and West Coasts, as well as the Gulf of Mexico by the end of next week. The Gulf and East ridges should force a bigger pattern change that may be the start of our hotter and drier summer forecast around the middle of the month.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar with the pattern, but not with the details. But both produce a lot of rain across the country this week into next week. I will use a blend but favor the ensembles of both, which are relatively similar.

A system should move through Canada and the northern U.S. over the weekend into early next week with scattered showers. Some heavier rain may continues farther south from an old, stalled front. Another system may move through northern areas mid-late next week and possibly another over the weekend as well. We will also be keeping an eye on the tropics, as a disturbance may try to form off the Carolina Coast this week or in the Gulf next week. Models are unsure as they often are this time of year.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...112 AT STOVEPIPE WELLS, CA

LOW SUN...21 AT KIPLING, MI

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT SUNDAY...OKLAHOMA CITY, OK 1.51 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is trough in the East with another in central Canada and a couple of disturbances in the West. Everything will push eastward this week, and the multiple disturbances should bring through a lot of precipitation. A trough will slide back into Central Canada this weekend and a few reinforcing impulses should keep this trough around through the bulk of next week as well. Ridges will do their best to contain the trough by hanging off the East and West Coasts, as well as the Gulf of Mexico by the end of next week. The Gulf and East ridges should force a bigger pattern change that may be the start of our hotter and drier summer forecast around the middle of the month.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar with the pattern, but not with the details. But both produce a lot of rain across the country this week into next week. I will use a blend but favor the ensembles of both, which are relatively similar.

A system should move through Canada and the northern U.S. over the weekend into early next week with scattered showers. Some heavier rain may continues farther south from an old, stalled front. Another system may move through northern areas mid-late next week and possibly another over the weekend as well. We will also be keeping an eye on the tropics, as a disturbance may try to form off the Carolina Coast this week or in the Gulf next week. Models are unsure as they often are this time of year.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front started to move into the region on Sunday night and will produce scattered showers through early Tuesday before it leaves. Some isolated showers may follow behind the front throughout the rest of the week. A system should move through Canada this weekend and could bring some more showers through as well. And we will watch for additional chances next week. The region needs the rain, as drought still covers a widespread area, though it has decreased in coverage over the last few weeks. A few cooler days are forecast behind the first system early this week, but generally mild conditions are favored through next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved through Saturday into Sunday. A system will sweep through the region this week, but may do so in a couple of pieces. That could bring some areas of heavy rain through the region yet again, though there are some areas that may miss out. Models are unsure of the specifics, but it looks like a good week for precipitation again. More disturbances and fronts coming down from Canada this weekend and next week should keep the chances going, which is good for filling wheat and developing corn and soybeans.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Showers left the east over the weekend, but it was quiet for most areas. A front will move into the region early Tuesday and stall out for a day or two across the south where heavy rain may accumulate. Another system along the front will come later in the week and that may or may not be widespread. Models are trying to decide. Additional fronts will move through this weekend and next week, keeping the active pattern going through mid-June. For drier areas across the north, the pattern is favorable. But for wetter areas across the south, the forecast keeps soils looking wet as producers have a hard time finishing up planting.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): It was favorably drier over the weekend with just a few spotty showers that moved through. A front will move into the northern end of the region later this week and stall out somewhere through the region. Models are unsure where, but put down a lot of precipitation where it stalls out going into next week. And that zone may shift slightly north and south with time. Overly wet conditions continue across a wide area of the region and the coming rain will not be helpful. We will also keep an eye on the Gulf for potential tropical systems.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): A system brought showers to northern Alberta on Sunday and is bringing more showers to southeastern areas on Monday. Showers are lighter than hoped for. Isolated showers may continue throughout the week, but be very spotty and light. A bigger system is possible this weekend, though models are reducing the rainfall with this system as well. Disturbances moving through behind it next week could fill in some showers though, too. With planting all but finished, rainfall is needed in several areas for proper germination and early growth.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): It was dry over the weekend, but a front stalled out across southern safrinha corn areas could be active multiple times over the next week, bringing somewhat favorable rainfall to corn that is still filling.

Harvest has begun though, and will increase throughout the month of June, so this rainfall will not be overly helpful for the crop. Southern wheat areas are forecast to stay drier, which could use some rain for establishment.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): It was dry and cold over the weekend, with widespread frosts across much of the country going back to last week, especially in the south and west. With corn and soybean harvest underway, the frosts are not damaging, but could slow growth for winter wheat. That crop continues to ramp up planting through the month of June.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers went through Europe over the weekend, but missed plenty of areas in the south and east. Systems will continue to favor northern areas this week, but there will be plenty of areas that miss out. France may have larger sections of the country that do. Northern areas continue to need rainfall. And while they're getting it, it's coming in patches that are missing some areas, too. Drier conditions across the south are noteworthy, but recent rainfall should stem the tide of a drier pattern there for the next two weeks.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system left this weekend, but only brought isolated light showers to western Russia. Several more systems will move through over the next two weeks, but they are favoring the northwest with rainfall, while leaving the south and east much drier. Long-term deficits continue in many areas, including western Russia, and the lack of soil moisture is concerning for reproductive to filling wheat and developing corn.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers moved into Western Australia Sunday night and will be possible through Wednesday. The rainfall will be much appreciated, though amounts will likely be spotty. A little disturbance moving through eastern Australia is bringing some showers into early this week as well, but with very little coverage. The western system could hang around southeastern Australia later this week into early next week, as models have changed that up recently. Any rainfall there will be welcomed under the intensifying drought which has been unfavorable for winter wheat and canola establishment.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Systems continue to bypass central China in early June, favoring areas south of the Yangtze River and in the northeast. Filling wheat on the North China Plain has had harsher conditions to end their season and could see additional stress before harvest begins in mid-June. Corn and soybeans in this region could also be facing tougher conditions early in the growth stages. Models start to come more alive mid-month, so this may be temporary.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Isolated showers east. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers Monday night-Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday, falling Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Friday.

East: Mostly dry Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures above normal west and below normal east Monday, above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near normal Thursday-Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday.

Temperatures near normal Saturday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday, below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday.

Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Friday, mostly north. Temperatures near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south.

Forecast: Isolated showers south through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday-Friday.

(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.