Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- More widespread rain through the U.S., drying conditions in the Canadian Prairies, and patches of dryness in the Black Sea region, China, and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Monday.

MORE ROUNDS OF RAIN FOR THE MIDWEST

Showers left the eastern Midwest over the weekend, but it was quiet for most areas. A front will move into the region early Tuesday and stall out for a day or two across the south where heavy rain may accumulate. Another system along the front will come later in the week and that may or may not be widespread. Models are trying to decide. Additional fronts will move through this weekend and next week, keeping the active pattern going through mid-June. For drier areas across the north, the pattern is favorable. But for wetter areas across the south, the forecast keeps soils looking wet as producers have a hard time finishing up planting.

HEAVY RAIN FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved through Saturday into Sunday, especially the Southern Plains. A system will sweep through the region this week, but will do so in a couple of pieces. That could bring some areas of heavy rain through the region yet again, though there are some areas that may miss out. Models are unsure of the specifics, but it looks like a good week for precipitation again. More disturbances and fronts coming down from Canada this weekend and next week should keep the chances going, which is good for filling wheat and developing corn and soybeans.

ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

A front started to move into the Northern Plains on Sunday night and will produce scattered showers through early Tuesday before it leaves. Some isolated showers may follow behind the front throughout the rest of the week. A system should move through Canada this weekend and could bring some more showers through as well. And we will watch for additional chances next week. The region needs the rain, as drought still covers a widespread area, though it has decreased in coverage over the last few weeks. A few cooler days are forecast behind the first system early this week, but generally mild conditions are favored through next week.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR DELTA

It was favorably drier in the Delta over the weekend with just a few spotty showers that moved through. A front will move into the northern end of the region later this week and stall out somewhere through the region. Models are unsure where, but put down a lot of precipitation where it stalls out going into next week. And that zone may shift slightly north and south with time. Overly wet conditions continue across a wide area of the region and the coming rain will not be helpful. We will also keep an eye on the Gulf for potential tropical systems.

DISAPPOINTING RAINFALL FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS WEEK

A system brought showers to northern Alberta on Sunday and is bringing more showers to southeastern areas of the Canadian Prairies on Monday. Showers are lighter than hoped for. Isolated showers may continue throughout the week, but be very spotty and light. A bigger system is possible this weekend, though models are reducing the rainfall with this system as well. Disturbances moving through behind it next week could fill in some showers though, too. With planting all but finished, rainfall is needed in several areas for proper germination and early growth.

WAVES OF SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO SOUTHERN BRAZIL

It was dry in Brazil over the weekend, but a front stalled out across southern safrinha corn areas could be active multiple times over the next week, bringing somewhat favorable rainfall to corn that is still filling. Harvest has begun though, and will increase throughout the month of June, so this rainfall will not be overly helpful for the crop. Southern wheat areas are forecast to stay drier, which could use some rain for establishment.

WETTER PATTERN FOR NORTHERN EUROPE

Scattered showers went through Europe over the weekend, but missed plenty of areas in the south and east. Systems will continue to favor northern areas this week, but there will be plenty of areas that miss out. France may have larger sections of the country that do. Northern areas continue to need rainfall. And while they're getting it, it's coming in patches that are missing some areas, too. Drier conditions across the south are noteworthy, but recent rainfall should stem the tide of a drier pattern there for the next two weeks.

EASTERN BLACK SEA REGION DRYING OUT AGAIN

A system left this weekend, but only brought isolated light showers to western Russia. Several more systems will move through the Black Sea region over the next two weeks, but they are favoring the northwest with rainfall, while leaving the south and east much drier. Long-term deficits continue in many areas, including western Russia, and the lack of soil moisture is concerning for reproductive to filling wheat and developing corn.

LIMITED RAINFALL FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA

Scattered showers moved into Western Australia Sunday night and will be possible through Wednesday. The rainfall will be much appreciated, though amounts will likely be spotty. A little disturbance moving through eastern Australia is bringing some showers into early this week as well, but with very little coverage. The western system could hang around southeastern Australia later this week into early next week, as models have changed that up recently. Any rainfall there will be welcomed under the intensifying drought which has been unfavorable for winter wheat and canola establishment.

CENTRAL CHINA STILL STAYING MOSTLY DRY

Systems continue to bypass central China in early June, favoring areas south of the Yangtze River and in the northeast. Filling wheat on the North China Plain has had harsher conditions to end their season and could see additional stress before harvest begins in mid-June. Corn and soybeans in this region could also be facing tougher conditions early in the growth stages. Models start to come more alive mid-month, so this may be temporary.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.