Canadian Prairies Weather Outlook

A dry stretch later last week continued into this week for the Canadian Prairies, and some areas haven't seen rain for more than 10 days. Combined with mild to warm weather, that has allowed a lot of the region to undergo a rapid seeding pace. But with the warmer conditions, soil moisture has been dropping and rain is needed across the region. We may continue to see drier weather into next week, but there are some systems around, including one likely for later next week, that should bring more rain through the region.

The rapid seeding pace was explained in both the Saskatchewan and Manitoba crop reports this week. In Saskatchewan, producers are almost done at 88% complete, ahead of the five-year average of 82%. In Manitoba, the difference is more extreme, with 85% of the region complete compared to the five-year average of just 69%. The report out of Alberta was not released as of this writing, but last week's report continued to show a well-ahead-of-normal pace at 73% complete compared to the five-year average of 59%. With most of the seed in the ground, and forages rapidly growing with the recent warmth, rainfall is surely needed.

Very little rain fell this week, just some spotty showers dotting parts of the region and mostly in Alberta. But we should see some areas pick up needed rainfall during the coming week. It may be sketchy to start, though. What looked like a promising system has turned farther south with its impacts, hitting more of the United States than Canada. But we should still see showers moving through northern Alberta May 31-June 1, with some spottier showers through Saskatchewan and possibly better coverage in Manitoba on June 2.

Behind that system, isolated showers will be possible through the week, but most areas are going to be missed by anything significant. Through June 5, very few areas will see more than 10 millimeters (0.4 inches) of rainfall and will mostly be in northern Alberta and southern Manitoba. Some spots in those areas could eclipse 25 millimeters (1 inch), but that is generally not expected. The drier stretch will continue to favor the end of seeding across the region ahead of schedule, but these areas now need the rain.

A better chance exists later next week, starting June 6, and likely continuing into the weekend. An upper-level trough of low pressure will move into Western Canada at that time and should be the source of a stronger storm system. Widespread showers are forecast through at least June 8 and should have more coverage and intensity than earlier in the week. Models are mixed on amounts, and thunderstorms will cause localized rainfall, but potential exists for much of the region to record 10-25 mm of rainfall out of it with multiple pockets eclipsing this.

We will have to watch this system, though, as it could send the rainfall farther north into the wooded areas of the region and leave the Prairies drier. The northern areas will take it though as spring drought has led to multiple wildfires and led to province-wide state of emergency declared for both Saskatchewan and Manitoba this week.

Smoke from these wildfires is easily seen on satellite and may spread through the region during the next several days. The smoke has also been leading to air quality alerts in some parts of the U.S. Smoke is not known to be either a harm or benefit to developing crops.

It hasn't been extremely dry in the Prairies lately. Soil moisture maps from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada still have soil moisture in mostly good shape throughout the region and drought doesn't exist for much of the farmland, although that analysis ended at the beginning of May. However, drought does exist in the forests to the north and wildfires have been fairly widespread through that area. Winds from the north have brought some of that smoke down through the Prairies and into the North-Central U.S. as well.

The wind direction continues to be mostly out of the west, which would keep the wildfires from spreading too much into the Prairies, though the fringes could be at risk in some spots. We will have to watch out for any storm systems that pass by to the south, as those surface winds would then move from east to west and could spread fires into agricultural lands.

However, that doesn't seem to be the case for at least the next week. We should see some systems moving through, but mostly to the north. That could mean stronger westerly winds that would increase the extent and intensity of the fires, but also comes with at least some rain chances. The best bet right now would be a system that moves through June 6-8. That system could bring widespread soaking precipitation through the region, help to reduce wildfire intensity, and limit new ones from developing. However, it may also bring thunderstorms and lightning could spark additional fires that do not see a lot of rain. So, it is sort of a mixed bag.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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