DTN Fundamentally Speaking
Outlook for U.S. Soybean Exports, Future Sales Cloudy
Similar to what we did with corn, this chart shows the volume of U.S. soybeans sold and shipped as of the third week of May as a percentage of the USDA May' WASDE export projection on the left-hand axis.
Also, reported on the left-hand axis is the amount of U.S. soybeans shipped to sold also as of the third week in May.
On the right-hand axis is the amount of U.S. soybeans sold to unknown destinations as a percentage of the total of both known and unknown destinations as of the third week in May.
P[L1] D[0x0] M[300x250] OOP[F] ADUNIT[] T[]
The last export sales report showed 1.775 billion bushels (bb) of soybeans sold for the 2024/25 marketing year and of that total, 1.622 bb has shipped and these are the second lowest figures for this time of year since the 2019/20 season.
Still, this was not enough to prevent the USDA from increasing its export projection for this year by 25 million bushels (mb) to 1.850 bb given in the WASDE report earlier this month.
Total commitments are 95.9% of the May 2025 WASDE projection which is below the ten-year average of 97.1%.
However, 87.7 % of WASDE projection has already shipped, the second highest figure in that regard since the 2016/17 season.
That a large percentage of the soybeans sold has already shipped could justify the recent jump in 2024/25 export projections.
On the other hand, a massive South American crop and the on and off again trade war situation suggest further increases may not occur.
We do note that the 57.4 mb (3.3% of total sales) is to unknown destinations and could be canceled if of Chinese origin in favor of Brazilian product if needed.
Even so, this relatively small total should not impact the final export estimate for this season to any great degree.
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