DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is trough in the Midwest and another over eastern Canada. A ridge is in the West up through central Canada. The two troughs will combine to produce one large one on the East Coast for the weekend. The western ridge will spread eastward next week and a trough will take its place in the West.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The trough should move east late next week and another will move into western Canada at the same time, moving east through Canada early next week.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar with the pattern, but not with the details. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will continue to move through the country in the middle of next week, clearing the East Coast by the end of the week. The front to the system could get stuck near the Gulf Coast with additional showers into the weekend. Another system will move into the Canadian Prairies late next week, with showers extending south into the U.S. over the weekend.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...112 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW THU...30 AT 32 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF BYNUM, MT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...MOBILE, AL 2.15 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is trough in the Midwest and another over eastern Canada. A ridge is in the West up through central Canada. The two troughs will combine to produce one large one on the East Coast for the weekend. The western ridge will spread eastward next week and a trough will take its place in the West. The trough should move east late next week and another will move into western Canada at the same time, moving east through Canada early next week.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar with the pattern, but not with the details. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will continue to move through the country in the middle of next week, clearing the East Coast by the end of the week. The front to the system could get stuck near the Gulf Coast with additional showers into the weekend.

Another system will move into the Canadian Prairies late next week, with showers extending south into the U.S. over the weekend.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Recent precipitation has been beneficial for increasing soil moisture and reducing drought throughout most of the region. The next system should move through the region Monday into Tuesday, bringing widespread showers and then a burst of some cooler temperatures for a few days. Another system should move through next weekend as well, keeping the region supplied with chances for beneficial rainfall.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Recent heavy rain should have boosted soil moisture and reduced drought across the vast majority of the region, though it also came with some severe weather and eastern Oklahoma and Texas have seen flooding. Another system will move through early-to-mid next week and models have been increasing the precipitation with this system. That could mean another round of some heavier rain in needed areas, while keeping the southeast too wet. A burst of cooler temperatures will follow the system but will not last long. A system moving through Canada late next week and weekend could bring showers across the region as well, keeping an active pattern going into early June.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): An upper-level low-pressure system continues to bring showers on Friday after bringing showers throughout the week. Amounts have not been heavy, but wet areas across the south saw some heavier amounts Thursday night into early Friday, unfortunate for those still yet to plant. Another big system is forecast to move through the region next week with more widespread showers and thunderstorms and could bring another couple of rounds of heavier rainfall. Some areas that are a bit too dry will enjoy the rain, while others seeking a break may not. Cooler temperatures in the region this week will rise next week ahead of the system, but fall back toward normal behind it.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Scattered showers continue in the region on Friday after bringing some heavier amounts through over the last week. Yet another front and system will move through in the middle of next week with potential for more heavy rain. There have only been limited dry days across the region all spring, which has built in a lot of soil moisture, but also caused ponding and flooding for extended periods as well. Mild temperatures largely stick around through next week and may lead to disease pressure in areas that cannot dry out.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): Drier weather for much of this week should have allowed for most producers to finish planting either on schedule or ahead of it. A disturbance will bring showers through on Friday but be spotty. Models are pushing a system through Sunday and Monday, but are now limiting precipitation across the region. That will allow more fieldwork to get done, but some parts of the region may be getting a bit too dry. The pattern does favor another system moving through later next week, and some isolated showers may pop up in between the two systems.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A front produced heavy rain over southern and south-central regions of Brazil earlier this week, with meaningful rainfall for some safrinha corn areas that may still be filling. Another front may bring showers back into south-central areas early next week, with a couple of waves into safrinha corn areas. The corn harvest has started, though at a slow pace.

That pace will pick up in mid-June. Colder air in the region could produce some patchy frosts as far north as Parana over the next couple of mornings. If that occurs, that could affect safrinha corn in some areas.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Cold air is producing frosts in some areas over the next few mornings. Early frosts are not a significant concern for the remaining corn and soybean harvest, or early winter wheat establishment. Winter wheat is still in the early stages of planting and should increase through June. Drier weather should allow flooded areas to drain and others to continue fieldwork.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers continue to move over northern areas into the weekend, but amounts have not and continue to not be particularly heavy for very many areas which need it. The driest areas in France, the UK, and Germany may be the target for additional heavy rainfall next week, though models are backing off on that a touch. The rain would be preferred as many of these areas have fallen behind significantly in precipitation deficits over the last few months and winter wheat is progressing through reproductive stages.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system has been spreading showers through Ukraine this week, but has significantly reduced its footprint throughout the week. Showers will be very spotty as it moves east through western Russia this weekend. Though showers have been more frequent in the region lately, long-term rainfall deficits continue to be very large for much of the region, making for a lot of concern if and when conditions turn hotter and drier. A system or two may be possible next week, though models are unsure about the coverage with the rainfall.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A system moving through Western Australia to end the week will not bring much precipitation eastward. Neither will another that gets some good rainfall in Western Australia early next week, but very spotty showers through eastern states later next week. Rainfall is largely below normal for this time of year in the east, unfavorable for winter wheat and canola establishment that are facing drought through much of the region.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Central China continues to be very dry, unfavorable for crop development, while northeast China has had better precipitation but is still below normal. Systems continue to bypass central China going into June, favoring areas south of the Yangtze River and sometimes in the northeast. Filling wheat on the North China Plain has had harsher conditions to end their season and could see additional stress before harvest begins in mid-June. Corn and soybeans in this region could also be facing tougher conditions early in the growth stages.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers, some heavier rain south. Temperatures below normal.

East: Scattered showers, some heavier rain south. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday.

Scattered showers Monday night-Tuesday. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday, above normal Monday-Tuesday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday.

Scattered showers Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Sunday, above normal north and below normal south Monday, above normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers far south Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures below normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday, near to below normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures below normal Wednesday-Friday, near normal Saturday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Tuesday, mostly north. Temperatures below normal through Sunday, near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Isolated showers south Monday-Tuesday.

Temperatures above normal north and below normal south through Sunday, near to above normal Monday-Tuesday.

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