Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Continued wet weather across the south, more rain next week, and patches of dryness in Europe, the Black Sea region, China, and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Friday.

MORE RAIN FOR THE MIDWEST

An upper-level low-pressure system continues to bring showers to the Midwest on Friday after bringing showers throughout the week. Amounts have not been heavy in most places, but wet areas across the south saw some heavier amounts Thursday night into early Friday -- unfortunate for those still yet to plant. Another big system is forecast to move through the region next week with more widespread showers and thunderstorms and could bring another couple of rounds of heavier rainfall. Some areas that are a bit too dry will enjoy the rain, while others seeking a break may not. Cooler temperatures in the region this week will rise next week ahead of the system but fall back toward normal behind it.

MORE HEAVY RAIN IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK

Recent heavy rain should have boosted soil moisture and reduced drought across the vast majority of the Central and Southern Plains, though it also came with some severe weather and flooding in the southeast. Another system will move through early- to mid-next week and models have been increasing the precipitation with this system. That could mean another round of some heavier rain in needed areas, while keeping the southeast too wet. A burst of cooler temperatures will follow the system but will not last long. A system moving through Canada late next week and weekend could bring showers across the region as well, keeping an active pattern going into early June.

SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK

Recent precipitation has been beneficial for increasing soil moisture and reducing drought throughout most of the Northern Plains. The next system should move through the region Monday into Tuesday, bringing widespread showers and then a burst of some cooler temperatures for a few days. Another system should move through next weekend as well, keeping the region supplied with chances for beneficial rainfall.

SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE DELTA, SOME HEAVY RAIN NEXT WEEK

Scattered showers continue in the Delta on Friday after bringing some heavier amounts through over the last week. Yet another front and system will move through in the middle of next week with potential for more heavy rain. There have only been limited dry days across the region all spring, which has built in a lot of soil moisture, but also caused ponding and flooding for extended periods as well. Mild temperatures largely stick around through next week and may lead to disease pressure in areas that cannot dry out.

DRIER STRETCH FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES CONTINUES

Drier weather for much of this week should have allowed for most producers to finish planting either on schedule or ahead of it in the Canadian Prairies. A disturbance will bring showers through on Friday but be spotty. Models are pushing a system through Sunday and Monday but are now limiting precipitation across the region. That will allow more fieldwork to get done, but some parts of the region may be getting a bit too dry. The pattern does favor another system moving through later next week, and some isolated showers may pop up in between the two systems.

SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO SOUTHERN BRAZIL NEXT WEEK

A front produced heavy rain over southern and south-central regions of Brazil earlier this week, with meaningful rainfall for some safrinha corn areas that may still be filling. Another front may bring showers back into south-central areas early next week, with a couple of waves into safrinha corn areas. The corn harvest has started, though at a slow pace. That pace will pick up in mid-June. Colder air in the region could produce some patchy frosts as far north as Parana over the next couple of mornings. If that occurs, that could affect safrinha corn in some areas.

NORTHERN EUROPE NEEDS MORE RAINFALL, MAY GET IT NEXT WEEK

Scattered showers continue to move over northern Europe into the weekend, but amounts have not and continue to not be particularly heavy for very many areas which need it. The driest areas in France, the UK, and Germany may be the target for some areas of heavy rainfall next week, though models are backing off on the extent a touch. The rain would be preferred as many of these areas have fallen behind significantly in precipitation deficits over the last few months and winter wheat is progressing through reproductive stages.

EASTERN BLACK SEA REGION IN ANOTHER DRY STRETCH

A system has been spreading showers through Ukraine this week but has significantly reduced its footprint throughout the week. Showers will be very spotty as it moves east through western Russia this weekend. Though showers have been more frequent in the region lately, long-term rainfall deficits continue to be very large for much of the region, making for a lot of concern if and when conditions turn hotter and drier. A system or two may be possible next week, though models are unsure about the coverage with the rainfall.

LIMITED RAINFALL FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA

A system moving through Western Australia to end the week will not bring much precipitation eastward. Neither will another that gets some good rainfall in Western Australia early next week, but very spotty showers through eastern states later next week. Rainfall is largely below normal for this time of year in the east, unfavorable for winter wheat and canola establishment that are facing drought through much of the region.

CENTRAL CHINA STAYING MOSTLY DRY

Central China continues to be very dry, unfavorable for crop development, while northeast China has had better precipitation but is still below normal. Systems continue to bypass central China going into June, favoring areas south of the Yangtze River and sometimes in the northeast. Filling wheat on the North China Plain has had harsher conditions to end their season and could see additional stress before harvest begins in mid-June. Corn and soybeans in this region could also be facing tougher conditions early in the growth stages.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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