DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is trough in the Central with a ridge in the West up through central Canada. The trough will combine with another trough coming down from northern Canada over the next couple of days to produce a big trough on the East Coast for the weekend. The western ridge will spread eastward next week and a trough will take its place in the West.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The trough should move east late next week and weekend and another will move into western Canada at the same time.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar with the pattern, but not with the details. I will use a blend but favor the European.

Both models changed to push an early week system across the entire country through Friday instead of just the north. Scattered showers will now be possible everywhere and cooler air will filter in behind the system across more of the country after a warm start to the week. Another system will move across the Canadian Prairies and north next weekend.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...110 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW WED...26 AT WINONA, AZ

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT WEDNESDAY...LAKE CHARLES, LA 2.46 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is trough in the Central with a ridge in the West up through central Canada. The trough will combine with another trough coming down from northern Canada over the next couple of days to produce a big trough on the East Coast for the weekend. The western ridge will spread eastward next week and a trough will take its place in the West. The trough should move east late next week and weekend and another will move into western Canada at the same time.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar with the pattern, but not with the details. I will use a blend but favor the European.

Both models changed to push an early week system across the entire country through Friday instead of just the north. Scattered showers will now be possible everywhere and cooler air will filter in behind the system across more of the country after a warm start to the week. Another system will move across the Canadian Prairies and north next weekend.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Recent precipitation has been beneficial for increasing soil moisture and reducing drought throughout most of the region. The next system should move through the region Monday into Tuesday, bringing widespread showers and then a burst of some cooler temperatures for a few days. Another system should move through next weekend as well, keeping the region supplied with chances for beneficial rainfall.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Heavy rain will push out on Thursday after more than a week of really good amounts for a lot of the region. That should have boosted soil moisture and reduced drought across the vast majority of the region, though it also came with some severe weather and eastern Oklahoma and Texas have seen flooding. Another system will move through early-to-mid next week and models have been increasing the precipitation with this system. That could mean another round of some heavier rain in needed areas, while keeping the southeast too wet.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): An upper-level low-pressure system continues to spin around the region and bring showers through Friday.

Amounts have not been or will be heavy for very many areas, but could be along the Ohio River Thursday night into Friday. That would be unfavorable for those still yet to plant. Another big system is forecast to move through the region next week with more widespread showers and thunderstorms and could bring another couple of rounds of heavier rainfall. Some areas that are a bit too dry will enjoy the rain, while others seeking a break may not. Cooler temperatures in the region this week will rise next week ahead of the system, but fall back toward normal behind it.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Scattered showers continue in the region through Friday and have potential for severe weather as well. There have only been limited dry days across the region all spring, which has built in a lot of soil moisture, but also caused ponding and flooding for extended periods as well. Temperatures are mostly below normal this week, which may also lead to disease pressure in areas that cannot dry out. Temperatures should rise next week but that is ahead of yet another system that is now forecast to bring through more rounds of heavy rain and potential severe weather.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): Drier weather for much of this week should have allowed for most producers to finish planting either on schedule or ahead of it after some good rain previously. A disturbance will bring showers through Thursday night and Friday. Models are pushing a system through Sunday and Monday, but are now limiting precipitation across the region. That will allow more fieldwork to get done, but some parts of the region may be getting a bit too dry. The pattern does favor another system moving through later next week, though.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A front produced heavy rain over southern and south-central regions of Brazil earlier this week, with meaningful rainfall for some safrinha corn areas that may still be filling. The corn harvest has started, though at a slow pace. That pace will pick up in about two weeks.

Colder air moving in behind the front could produce some patchy frosts as far north as Parana over the next couple of mornings. If that occurs, that could affect safrinha corn in some areas.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Cold air is producing frosts in some areas over the next few mornings. Early frosts are not a significant concern for the remaining corn and soybean harvest, or early winter wheat establishment. Winter wheat is still in the early stages of planting and should increase through June.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers continue to move over northern areas into the weekend, but amounts have not and continue to not be particularly heavy for very many areas which need it. The driest areas in France, the UK, and Germany may be the target for additional heavy rainfall next week, though models are backing off on that a touch. The rain would be preferred as many of these areas have fallen behind significantly in precipitation deficits over the last few months and winter wheat is progressing through reproductive stages.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Heavy rain fell over western areas of the region over the last few days and the system responsible will be slow to move this week. It is spreading showers farther east through Ukraine, but will be very spotty going through western Russia as it passes through this weekend. Though showers have been more frequent, long-term rainfall deficits continue to be very large for much of the region, making for a lot of concern if and when conditions turn hotter and drier. A system or two may be possible next week, though models are unsure about the coverage with the rainfall.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): A couple of systems will bring showers to the country for the end of the month and early June, targeting Western Australia with the best coverage and amounts. Rainfall is largely below normal for this time of year in the east, unfavorable for winter wheat and canola establishment that are facing drought.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Central China continues to be very dry, unfavorable for crop development, while northeast China has had better precipitation but is still below normal. Systems continue to bypass central China going into June, favoring areas south of the Yangtze River and sometimes in the northeast. Filling wheat on the North China Plain has had harsher conditions to end their season and could see additional stress before harvest begins in mid-June. Corn and soybeans in this region could also be facing tougher conditions early in the growth stages.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures below normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday.

Mostly dry Sunday. Scattered showers Monday night. Temperatures below normal Thursday, above normal north and below normal south Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday, above normal Monday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Monday.

Temperatures near to below normal through Sunday, above normal north and below normal south Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Thursday, far south Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday.

Temperatures below normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday-Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal northwest and above normal southeast Tuesday, below normal Wednesday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures falling below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Isolated showers Monday. Temperatures below normal through Sunday, near to below normal Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Isolated showers south Monday.

Temperatures above normal north and below normal south through Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

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