DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is trough in the Central with a ridge in the West up through central Canada. The trough will slowly progress eastward this week, combining with another trough coming down from northern Canada late in the week to produce a big trough on the East Coast for the weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The western ridge will spread eastward next week and a trough will take its place in the West. The trough should move east late next week and weekend, but mostly across the north.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar, but not with the details. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system should move through the Northern Plains early next week with another system likely across the north for late week. Showers may extend south through the Plains at times, but southern areas should go on a drier trend.

Above-normal temperatures will spread at least across northern areas next week, though cooler temperatures move into the Northern Plains behind the first system midweek.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...108 AT DEATH VALLEY, CA

LOW TUE...24 AT HARTSEL, CO

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...COLUMBUS, GA 3.26 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is trough in the Central with a ridge in the West up through central Canada. The trough will slowly progress eastward this week, combining with another trough coming down from northern Canada late in the week to produce a big trough on the East Coast for the weekend. The western ridge will spread eastward next week and a trough will take its place in the West. The trough should move east late next week and weekend, but mostly across the north.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar, but not with the details. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system should move through the Northern Plains early next week with another system likely across the north for late week. Showers may extend south through the Plains at times, but southern areas should go on a drier trend.

Above-normal temperatures will spread at least across northern areas next week, though cooler temperatures move into the Northern Plains behind the first system midweek.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Recent precipitation has been beneficial for increasing soil moisture and reducing drought throughout most of the region. Some showers will remain possible on Wednesday, but much of the week should be drier and beneficial for additional fieldwork. Some isolated showers may develop over the weekend as well. A bigger system should move through the region Monday night and Tuesday, bringing widespread showers through the rest of the week. Temperatures will be on the rise this week, but fall behind next week's system.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Recent heavy rainfall was beneficial for some dry areas, but also brought heavy rain to some areas that didn't necessarily need it across eastern Oklahoma and Texas. This system continues to produce showers through Thursday before the region goes on a drier trend. Systems will favor the Northern Plains next week, leaving the region with spotty showers and higher temperatures. Some stretch of drier weather can be dealt with because of the recent rain. But this may be the start of a drier trend that is forecast to increase throughout the month of June.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system will continue to pinwheel through the region this week with areas of isolated to scattered showers through Friday and some more may drop over western areas this weekend with another disturbance. Soil moisture is certainly higher in most areas, which is good news for many that have already planted. But there are some areas, particularly across the south, that haven't had very good conditions for planting yet and it is starting to get very late. Showers this week will be more of a nuisance and are not expected to be heavy for too many areas. Cooler temperatures remain in place for most of the week, but should be rising starting on Friday and continuing into the weekend and early June. Heavier rain will be possible next week as at least a pair of systems moves through. Models disagree about the coverage of precipitation in the region, though.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Scattered showers continue in the region through Friday and could have potential for severe weather as well. There have only been limited dry days across the region all spring, which has built in a lot of soil moisture, but also caused ponding and flooding for extended periods as well. Temperatures are mostly below normal this week, which may also lead to disease pressure in areas that cannot dry out. Temperatures should rise next week.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): Drier weather this week should allow for most producers to finish planting either on schedule or ahead of it after some really good rain previously. A disturbance may bring showers Thursday night and Friday and the pattern is setting up to favor additional moderate or even heavy rain starting on Sunday. That would be highly favorable after the good planting pace.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A front produced heavy rain over the south on Tuesday, with showers waning as the front gets into central Brazil on Wednesday for southern safrinha corn areas that may still be filling. Safrinha corn harvest has started, though at a slow pace. That pace will pick up in about two weeks. Colder air will move in behind the front and could produce some patchy frosts as far north as Parana over the next couple of mornings. If that occurs, that could affect safrinha corn in some areas.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front brought scattered showers over the long weekend, but those showers were isolated over wet areas in the central. Winter wheat planting should be increasing going through June. Cold air is moving in and could produce frosts in some areas over the next few mornings. Early frosts are not a significant concern for the remaining corn and soybean harvest, or early winter wheat establishment.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers continue to move over northern areas this week, but amounts have not and continue not to be particularly heavy for very many areas which needed it. The driest areas in France, the UK, and Germany may be the target for additional heavy rainfall next week, though. That would be preferred as many of these areas have fallen behind significantly in precipitation deficits over the last few months.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Heavy rain continued to fall over western areas of the region over the long holiday weekend. The system responsible will be slow to move this week. It may spread showers farther east through Ukraine, but will be very spotty going through western Russia later this week and weekend.

Though showers have been more frequent, long-term rainfall deficits continue to be very large for much of the region, making for a lot of concern if and when conditions turn hotter and drier.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Though some showers moved through over the last week, dryness and drought continue to develop over some important areas of the country's wheat belt. A couple of systems will bring showers to the country for the end of the month and early June, but rainfall is largely below normal for this time of year, unfavorable for winter wheat and canola establishment.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Central and northeast China continue to be very dry, unfavorable for crop development. Very little rainfall is forecast over the next two weeks, which will favor northeastern areas a bit more, which are in much better shape in terms of soil moisture. Filling wheat on the North China Plain have had harsher conditions to end their season and could see additional stress before harvest begins in mid-June.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday.

Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures below normal through Thursday, above normal north and below normal south Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Sunday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday.

Temperatures near to below normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday.

Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures below normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday-Tuesday, near to below normal northwest and above normal southeast Wednesday-Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Wednesday, heavier south. Mostly dry Thursday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal north and below normal south through Sunday.

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