DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is trough in the Central with a ridge in the West up through central Canada. The trough will slowly progress eastward this week, combining with another trough coming down from northern Canada late in the week to produce a big trough on the East Coast for the weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The western ridge will spread eastward next week and a trough will take its place in the West. The trough should move east late next week and weekend, but mostly across the north.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A small disturbance will slide straight south through the middle of the country over the weekend with some isolated showers. Another system should move through the Northern Plains early next week with another system likely across the north for late week. Showers may extend south through the Plains at times, but southern areas should go on a drier trend outside of some popup showers in the Southeast. Above-normal temperatures will spread at least across northern areas next week, though cooler temperatures move into the Northern Plains behind the first system midweek.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...111 AT FAITH RANCH, TX

LOW MON...25 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 2.15 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is trough in the Central with a ridge in the West up through central Canada. The trough will slowly progress eastward this week, combining with another trough coming down from northern Canada late in the week to produce a big trough on the East Coast for the weekend. The western ridge will spread eastward next week and a trough will take its place in the West. The trough should move east late next week and weekend, but mostly across the north.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A small disturbance will slide straight south through the middle of the country over the weekend with some isolated showers. Another system should move through the Northern Plains early next week with another system likely across the north for late week. Showers may extend south through the Plains at times, but southern areas should go on a drier trend outside of some popup showers in the Southeast. Above-normal temperatures will spread at least across northern areas next week, though cooler temperatures move into the Northern Plains behind the first system midweek.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Recent precipitation has been beneficial for increasing soil moisture and reducing drought throughout most of the region. Some showers will remain possible through Wednesday, but much of the week should be drier and beneficial for additional fieldwork. Some isolated showers may develop over the weekend as well. A bigger system should move through the region Monday night and Tuesday, bringing widespread showers through the rest of the week. Temperatures will be on the rise this week, but fall behind next week's system.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Another system this weekend brought widespread showers and thunderstorms. That produced good rainfall for some dry areas, but also brought heavy rain to some areas that didn't necessarily need it across eastern Oklahoma and Texas as well as rounds of severe weather. This system continues to produce showers through Thursday before the region goes on a drier trend. Systems will favor the Northern Plains next week, leaving the region with spotty showers and higher temperatures. Some stretch of drier weather can be dealt with because of the recent rain. But this may be the start of a drier trend that is forecast to increase throughout the month of June.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers fell over southwestern areas of the region over the long holiday weekend. They weren't necessarily needed. But the system responsible will pinwheel through the region this week with areas of isolated to scattered showers through Friday and some more may drop over western areas this weekend with another disturbance. Soil moisture is certainly higher in most areas, which is good news for many that have already planted. But there are some areas, particularly across the south, that haven't had very good conditions for planting yet and it is starting to get very late. Showers this week will be more of a nuisance and are not expected to be heavy for too many areas. Cooler temperatures remain in place for most of the week, but should be rising starting on Friday and continuing into the weekend and early June.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Yet another system brought rounds of showers and thunderstorms over the long holiday weekend and continues in the region through Thursday with more showers and potential for severe weather. There have only been limited dry days across the region all spring, which has built in a lot of soil moisture, but also caused ponding and flooding for extended periods as well. Temperatures are mostly below normal this week, which may also lead to disease pressure in areas that cannot dry out.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): It was mostly dry over the weekend, though some isolated showers moved into Alberta on Monday and possibly fall in Saskatchewan on Tuesday. Drier weather this week should allow for most producers to finish planting either on schedule or ahead of it after some really good rain previously. A disturbance may bring showers Thursday night and Friday and the pattern is setting up to favor at least southern portions of the region with additional moderate or even heavy rain next week. That would be highly favorable after the good planting pace.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A front produced heavy rain over some southern areas over the long holiday weekend. But it will get a significant push northward for Tuesday, bringing some heavy rain to winter wheat areas, but also far southern safrinha corn areas that may still be filling and could use the rain. Showers will be waning as the front moves north on Wednesday. Safrinha corn harvest has started, though at a slow pace. That pace will pick up in about two weeks. Colder air will move in later this week and weekend and could produce some patchy frosts as far north as Parana. If that occurs, that could affect safrinha corn in some areas.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front brought scattered showers over the long weekend, but those showers were isolated over wet areas in the central. Northern areas get another push of heavy rainfall on Tuesday, but will not really affect winter wheat in a significant way. Planting should be increasing going through June. Cold air will move in this week and could produce frosts in some areas. Early frosts are not a significant concern for the remaining corn and soybean harvest, or early winter wheat establishment.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers moved through drier areas across the north over the long holiday weekend, but amounts were not particularly heavy for very many areas which needed it. More impulses will bring additional showers to northern areas this week, and the driest areas in France, the UK, and Germany may be the target for additional heavy rainfall next week. That would be preferred as many of these areas have fallen behind significantly in precipitation deficits over the last few months.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Heavy rain continued to fall over western areas of the region over the long holiday weekend. The system responsible will be slow to move this week. It may spread showers farther east into Ukraine, but will be very spotty going through western Russia later this week and weekend.

Though showers have been more frequent, long-term rainfall deficits continue to be very large for much of the region, making for a lot of concern if and when conditions turn hotter and drier.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Though some showers moved through over the last several days, dryness and drought continue to develop over some important areas of the country's wheat belt. A couple of systems may try to bring showers to the country for the end of the month and early June, but rainfall is largely below normal for this time of year, unfavorable for winter wheat and canola establishment.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Central and northeast China were drier over the weekend, unfavorable for crop development. Very little rainfall is forecast over the next two weeks, which will favor northeastern areas a bit more, which are in much better shape in terms of early soil moisture. Filling wheat on the North China Plain have had harsher conditions to end their season and could see additional stress before harvest begins in mid-June.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers south. Temperatures below normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday, south Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Temperatures below normal through Thursday, above normal north and below normal south Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated showers west Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Temperatures above normal west and below normal east Sunday, above normal Monday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Heavy showers. Temperatures below normal north and above normal south.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday.

Isolated showers Saturday. Temperatures below normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated showers Sunday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday.

Temperatures above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday, below normal Thursday-Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday, heavier south.

Mostly dry Thursday-Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Saturday, colder south.

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