Canadian Prairies Weather Outlook

Widespread rain has fallen across the Canadian Prairies over the last 7 to 10 days depending on location. Rainfall amounts have been over 25 millimeters (one inch) over most of the region. However, there have been parts of northern Saskatchewan, southeastern Alberta, and the Peace Region of Alberta that have not accumulated more than 15 millimeters. But others -- especially in some drier areas of western Alberta, southeastern Saskatchewan, and much of southern Manitoba -- received more than 50 millimeters (about 2 inches). The rain came after a prolonged period of dryness that allowed producers to get a rapid start on seeding, pushing well ahead of the average pace in all three provinces. The rain that fell will help moisten soils for germination and early growth and encourage those yet to get into their fields to complete their work as well.

Even with the rain, crop reports out of Manitoba and Saskatchewan this week still showcase the faster-than-normal pace. Manitoba reports 57% of seeding is complete, ahead of the five-year average of 45%. Saskatchewan has made it to 72% complete, ahead of the average of 60%. This week's report from Alberta was not published as of this writing but was at nearly 47% complete last week, ahead of the five-year average of less than 26%.

And the forecast for the next week should help keep that progress in motion. Scattered showers were ongoing over Alberta on Friday, May 23, but the forecast afterward is calling for near-complete dryness through the weekend. Some areas in northern Alberta, specifically the Peace Region, are forecast to see scattered showers for Monday and Tuesday, May 26-27, and that may translate to a few spotty showers in Alberta on Tuesday as well. But the vast majority of the region should be dry, allowing producers to finish ahead of schedule in most cases.

Temperatures have been cooler this week and patchy frost has dotted the landscape, particularly in the east where cloud cover was absent in the mornings. But those readings are forecast to increase next week and should be very favorable for plant growth.

The weather pattern again looks to get a little more chaotic heading into early June as at least one, but possibly several more, weather systems bring through scattered showers. That may be needed because the summer forecast continues to call for above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation, especially in July and August.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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