DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is trough in the East with another in the Gulf of Alaska. The eastern trough will slowly pinwheel off the East Coast through the weekend while a ridge develops in the West. The trough in the Gulf of Alaska will send some disturbances through the ridge and into the eastern trough this weekend into next week, maintaining the eastern trough.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The trough should start to bring more disturbances across Canada later next week and weekend.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar in the upper levels, but not on details at the surface. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will continue across the southern tier of the country through at least the middle of next week with scattered showers that may get into the Midwest as well. Temperatures will generally be warm west of the Rockies and cooler east, but should rise in the Northern Plains toward the end of next week and should spread through at least northern portions of the country going into next weekend.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...111 AT TECOPA, CA

LOW THU...17 AT PETER SINKS, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT THURSDAY...PROVIDENCE, RI 1.91 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is trough in the East with another in the Gulf of Alaska. The eastern trough will slowly pinwheel off the East Coast through the weekend while a ridge develops in the West. The trough in the Gulf of Alaska will send some disturbances through the ridge and into the eastern trough this weekend into next week, maintaining the eastern trough. The trough should start to bring more disturbances across Canada later next week and weekend.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar in the upper levels, but not on details at the surface. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will continue across the southern tier of the country through at least the middle of next week with scattered showers that may get into the Midwest as well. Temperatures will generally be warm west of the Rockies and cooler east, but should rise in the Northern Plains toward the end of next week and should spread through at least northern portions of the country going into next weekend.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Recent widespread heavy precipitation has been beneficial for increasing soil moisture and reducing drought. Additional rain will move through into the weekend and possible early next week. Temperatures will remain cold through into next week, but go on a warming trend going into June.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system will slowly move through the region with scattered showers continuing into early next week and some showers may follow that later next week as well.

Southwestern areas are less likely to see rain though, and some areas are getting too dry, but recent rainfall has been significant and favorable for building soil moisture and reducing drought across Nebraska and other areas as well. Temperatures will generally be below normal through a good portion of next week, which should keep stress down for those drier areas.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Recent widespread heavy precipitation has favored increasing soil moisture across the vast majority of the region over the last 10 days. Another system in the Plains may spread showers into the southwestern portions of the region through the weekend, then possibly across the region next week. Those that still have planting to do could be delayed across the south where it has been and continues to be too wet. Cold temperatures will be in place through a good portion of next week before rising later next week. Frost is not a very likely concern, but could develop under the right conditions in some patchy areas across the far north.

Temperatures will rise going into June.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): Yet another system will bring showers in on Friday and continue through the middle of next week, which may be heavy again. There have only been limited dry days across the region all spring, which has built in a lot of soil moisture, but also caused ponding and flooding for extended periods as well. Temperatures will be much cooler through next week, which may also lead to disease pressure in areas that cannot dry out.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): Some showers will be possible in Alberta on Friday, but another favorable planting window is opening for the end of the month, which should allow most producers to complete their work prior to the start of June. Cold temperatures have limited germination and early growth, with some patchy frost this week that has not been a major concern. Otherwise, temperatures will rise next week and conditions continue to be mostly favorable across the region.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A front will bounce around southern Brazil into early next week, offering some potential rainfall. The front will get a push north, getting into south-central Brazil before dying out in the middle of next week. Those in Rio Grande do Sul, a winter wheat state, would enjoy some rain for establishment. Showers should make it into Parana and likely Mato Grosso do Sul in the middle of next week to provide some benefit for filling safrinha corn. Otherwise, the country stays drier, forcing safrinha corn to use up the remaining subsoil moisture as is usual for this time of year. Early harvest should begin over the next couple of weeks.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front brought deluges of rain to central portions of the country this past weekend, with significant flooding and damage occurring there. Many of these areas are still in the midst of harvest and could have seen some hits to quality and production. Some additional showers will move through with a front this weekend and then a bigger push early next week with more widespread precipitation. Outside of the flooding, overall rainfall has been beneficial for winter wheat planting and establishment. Colder air that follows behind next week's system will likely cause areas of frost, but is not of particular concern to agriculture.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system across the Mediterranean is finally exiting to the east on Friday, after providing widespread favorable rainfall to the south and portions of the east this week. Systems moving through northern Europe this weekend and next week should bring through some beneficial rainfall, though amounts are not expected to be widespread heavy like the region needs. Drier conditions over the last few months have been worrisome for some in France, Germany, and the UK and the region needs rain quickly for reproductive winter grains. Only some areas will get hit with needed moisture while other, particularly in much of France, will get missed.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Streaks of scattered showers have brought some needed rainfall over eastern areas of the region over the last few weeks, though long-term deficits remain. Additional showers will likely occur for western areas into next week. The pattern is starting to turn a little drier for southwestern Russia, which may impact reproductive to filling winter wheat and emerging corn. Showers may return there later next week.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Though some showers moved through the West and New South Wales this week, recent dryness and drought continue to develop over some important areas of the country's wheat belt. A couple of systems may try to bring showers to the country for the end of the month, but rainfall is largely below normal for this time of year, unfavorable for winter wheat and canola establishment.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Drier conditions in central portions of China are stressing wheat and canola that are in reproductive to filling stages. It may also stress some corn and soybean areas that have just been planted as well. Very little precipitation is forecast here through the end of the month and into early June. Northern corn and soybean areas are in better shape with soil moisture, but have also been very cold lately, which has likely slowed planting progress. Temperatures will be increasing next week to be more favorable. Showers here are also forecast to be more isolated.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers south through Monday, spreading north Tuesday. Temperatures below normal through Tuesday.

East: Isolated showers east Friday, southwest Saturday-Monday. Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday. Temperatures below normal through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures below normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday-Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures below normal north and above normal south through Sunday, below normal Monday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Temperatures below normal Wednesday-Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday, above normal Saturday-Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Scattered showers south Tuesday.

Temperatures above normal through Tuesday.

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