Ag Weather Forum

Two big storm systems have crossed through the country over the last seven days. And while severe weather events have grabbed a lot of the attention, the heavy rainfall has been both a blessing and a curse for some areas of the U.S. Corn Belt.

The first storm moved into the Northern Plains on Wednesday, May 14. That got the action started by wiping away an early heatwave in the region and dumping some areas of heavy rainfall there. When the system went through the Midwest on Friday, May 16, it produced more scattered showers and thunderstorms down to the Gulf of Mexico (Gulf of America), but also brought a round of significant severe weather. Two days later, the next system moved into the Central Plains on Sunday, May 18, and overnight into Monday, May 19, which brought a sweeping area of thunderstorms that blanketed almost all of Nebraska with over an inch of rain. The system continued with heavy rain from the Northern Plains through the Great Lakes on Tuesday, May 20, with more severe thunderstorms from the Southern Plains through the Tennessee Valley. Although the system is still in the Midwest on Wednesday, May 21, it's winding down and is in the process of leaving the region.

When combining the two systems, DTN estimates that almost the entire Corn Belt received at least one inch of rain. Some small pockets dotted around the region saw less than that, particularly from Illinois to Ohio, but the rain was rather widespread for a pair of events that included thunderstorms. What's more, vast areas of the Dakotas, Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin, and another zone from Missouri and Arkansas through Kentucky and Tennessee saw more than two inches of rain. Pockets embedded within these zones saw more than four inches as well, including large areas of the western Dakotas.

When taken as a whole, the rainfall was more than welcomed across the north and west. These areas had been very dry and heat earlier in May had sapped a lot of the soil moisture out of the ground. Drought areas in the Dakotas and Nebraska will see significant reductions either on Thursday's update to the U.S. Drought Monitor, next week's update, or both as the rain fell in two different recording periods. Concerns of drought development over much of Iowa, Minnesota, northern Missouri, and northern Illinois will be alleviated, at least for the time being.

But the southern end of the Corn Belt received too much rain. The Ozarks area of Missouri and Arkansas had flood advisories posted earlier this week. The same goes for Kentucky, where stripes of 3-5 inches of rain fell in areas where tornadoes, hail and wind damage are leading to significant cleanup efforts. Though significant flooding was not observed across the entire swath, overly wet soil conditions have led to ponding that could cause further issues, particularly for agriculture. It will be these southern areas to watch as yet another system moves through Friday, May 23, into next week. Though models disagree on timing and amounts in the region, this area is likely to see more rounds of heavy rain and potential for severe weather that could compound already wet conditions.

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John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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