Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Dryness in the southwestern Plains, recent heavy rain in the Corn Belt, continued wet weather across the south, and patches of dryness in Europe, China, and Australia are the weather factors driving the markets Wednesday.

RECENT HEAVY RAIN IN THE MIDWEST

A system continues to bring widespread showers to the Midwest through Thursday but will be much lighter than earlier this week. Another system may bring showers to western and southern parts of the region Friday into the weekend as well. Widespread heavy rainfall from this system should be good for crop growth for much of the region and for building soil moisture and reducing drought in the northwest, though some that still have planting to do could be delayed, especially wet areas across the south. Cold temperatures are spreading through the region, being in place through a good portion of next week. Frost is not a very likely concern but could develop under the right conditions in some patchy areas. Temperatures will rise going into June.

MORE RAIN COMING TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

Widespread showers and thunderstorms finally gave Nebraska some much-needed rainfall over the last couple of days and parts of western Kansas got some needed showers as well. Disturbances could bring additional showers for the rest of the week to the Central and Southern Plains. Another system moves through this weekend into early next week with more widespread showers. Southwestern areas are less likely to see rain though, and some areas are getting too dry. Temperatures will generally be below normal through a good portion of next week, which should keep stress down for those drier areas.

RECENT HEAVY RAIN FAVORABLE IN NORTHERN PLAINS

A system will finally leave the Northern Plains on Wednesday. It has produced widespread heavy precipitation across most of the region, which is beneficial for increasing soil moisture and reducing drought. Additional rain will move through Thursday night into the weekend. Temperatures will remain cold through the weekend but go on a warming trend next week.

MORE RAIN FOR DELTA THIS WEEKEND

A front brought more showers and thunderstorms to the Delta on Tuesday and some additional showers may follow behind Wednesday night into Thursday. Yet another system is forecast to bring showers in over the weekend into early next week, which may be heavy again. There have only been limited dry days across the region all spring, which has built in a lot of soil moisture, but also caused ponding and flooding for extended periods as well. Temperatures will be much cooler through next week, which may also lead to disease pressure in areas that cannot dry out.

DRIER STRETCH COMING FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

A system continues to bring scattered showers to Saskatchewan and parts of Manitoba on Wednesday while additional showers will be possible in Alberta through Friday as a system finally gives up across the region. After producing widespread rainfall this week, another favorable planting window is opening for the end of the month, which should also allow most producers to complete their work prior to the start of June. Cold temperatures are limiting germination and early growth, with some patchy frost that has been very limited this week and overall, not a concern. Otherwise, temperatures will rise next week, and conditions continue to be mostly favorable across the region.

FRONT IN SOUTHERN BRAZIL PRODUCING SHOWERS

A front will bounce around southern Brazil into next week, offering some potential rainfall. Those in Rio Grande do Sul, a winter wheat state, would enjoy some rain for establishment. Showers should make it into Parana as well and help filling corn in some limited fashion. Otherwise, the country stays drier, forcing safrinha corn to use up the remaining subsoil moisture as is usual for this time of year. Early harvest should begin over the next couple of weeks.

NORTHERN EUROPE STILL TOO DRY, BUT SHOWERS ON THE WAY

A system will continue to move across the Mediterranean with scattered showers this week and we could see more systems moving through northern Europe later this week, weekend and into next week as well. Drier conditions over the last few months have been worrisome for some in France, Germany and the UK. Multiple chances are starting to show up to bring needed precipitation, but amounts on the models are not widespread heavy like they need to be. Winter crops that are getting into reproductive stages of growth need rain quickly.

BLACK SEA REGION GETTING INTO ANOTHER DRIER STRETCH

Streaks of scattered showers continue in the eastern Black Sea region on Wednesday while additional showers will likely occur for western areas into the weekend. A wetter pattern over the last couple of weeks has been beneficial, but rainfall deficits are still very large in many areas. Though western areas may continue to see showers next week, the pattern is starting to turn a little drier, especially for southwestern Russia, which may impact reproductive to filling winter wheat and emerging corn.

PATCHY RAINFALL FOR AUSTRALIA

Recent dryness and drought continue to develop over some important areas of the Australia's wheat belt, though some showers are moving through the west and far east over the next couple of days. Despite this, rainfall is largely below normal for this time of year, unfavorable for winter wheat and canola establishment.

LIMITED RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES IN CHINA

Despite some recent rain, drier conditions in central portions of China are stressing wheat and canola that are in reproductive to filling stages. It may also stress some corn and soybean areas that have just been planted as well. A couple of fronts will come through to end the month but are forecast to produce limited precipitation. Northern corn and soybean areas are in better shape with soil moisture, but have also been very cold, which has likely slowed planting progress. Showers here are also forecast to be more isolated for the rest of the month.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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