DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is trough in the Midwest with another in the Gulf of Alaska. The Midwest trough will continue east while a ridge develops in the West over the next couple of days. The ridge west and trough east pattern should be familiar through the end of the month. The trough in the Gulf of Alaska will send some disturbances over the ridge and into the eastern trough later this week and weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The trough in the Gulf of Alaska probably take a short break before sending more disturbances through Canada later next week.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar in the upper levels, but not on details at the surface. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will continue across the southern tier of the country early next week with scattered showers that may scrape across the southern Midwest as well. We should see another disturbance moving through northern areas later next week and weekend. Temperatures will generally be warm west of the Rockies and cooler east. Though temperatures will rise in the Northern Plains toward the end of next week and should spread through more of the country going into the early parts of June.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...106 AT FAITH RANCH, TX

LOW TUE...15 AT MANILA, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT TUESDAY...DES MOINES, IA 3.31 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is trough in the Midwest with another in the Gulf of Alaska. The Midwest trough will continue east while a ridge develops in the West over the next couple of days. The ridge west and trough east pattern should be familiar through the end of the month. The trough in the Gulf of Alaska will send some disturbances over the ridge and into the eastern trough later this week and weekend. But probably take a short break before sending more through Canada later next week.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar in the upper levels, but not on details at the surface. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will continue across the southern tier of the country early next week with scattered showers that may scrape across the southern Midwest as well. We should see another disturbance moving through northern areas later next week and weekend. Temperatures will generally be warm west of the Rockies and cooler east. Though temperatures will rise in the Northern Plains toward the end of next week and should spread through more of the country going into the early parts of June.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system will finally leave showers on Wednesday. It has produced widespread heavy precipitation across most of the region, which is beneficial for increasing soil moisture and reducing drought. Additional rain will move through Thursday night into the weekend. Temperatures will remain cold through the weekend, but go on a warming trend next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Widespread showers and thunderstorms finally gave Nebraska some much-needed rainfall over the last couple of days and parts of western Kansas got some needed showers as well. Disturbances could bring additional showers for the rest of the week.

Another system moves through this weekend into early next week with more widespread showers. Southwestern areas are less likely to see rain though, and some areas are getting too dry. Temperatures will generally be below normal through a good portion of next week, which should keep stress down for those drier areas.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system continues to bring widespread showers through Thursday. Another system may bring showers to western and southern parts of the region Friday into the weekend as well.

Widespread heavy rainfall from this system should be good for crop growth for much of the region and for building soil moisture and reducing drought in the northwest, though some that still have planting to do could be delayed, especially wet areas across the south. Cold temperatures are spreading through the region, being in place through a good portion of next week. Frost is not a very likely concern, but could develop under the right conditions in some patchy areas. Temperatures will rise going into June.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): A front brought more showers and thunderstorms to the region on Tuesday and some additional showers may follow behind Wednesday night into Thursday. Yet another system is forecast to bring showers in over the weekend into early next week, which may be heavy again. There have only been limited dry days across the region all spring, which has built in a lot of soil moisture, but also caused ponding and flooding for extended periods as well. Temperatures will be much cooler through next week, which may also lead to disease pressure in areas that cannot dry out.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): A system continues to bring scattered showers to Saskatchewan and parts of Manitoba on Wednesday while additional showers will be possible in Alberta through Friday as a system finally gives up across the region. After producing widespread rainfall this week, another favorable planting window is opening for the end of the month, which should also allow most producers to complete their work prior to the start of June. Cold temperatures are limiting germination and early growth, with some patchy frost that has been very limited this week and overall not a concern. Otherwise, temperatures will rise next wek and conditions continue to be mostly favorable across the region.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A front will bounce around southern Brazil into next week, offering some potential rainfall. Those in Rio Grande do Sul, a winter wheat state, would enjoy some rain for establishment. Showers should make it into Parana as well and help filling corn in some limited fashion.

Otherwise, the country stays drier, forcing safrinha corn to use up the remaining subsoil moisture as is usual for this time of year. Early harvest should begin over the next couple of weeks.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front brought deluges of rain to central portions of the country over the weekend, with significant flooding and damage occurring there. Many of these areas are still in the midst of harvest and could have seen some hits to quality and production. The front may remain active with scattered showers across the north this week. Outside of the flooding, overall rainfall has been beneficial for winter wheat planting and establishment.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system will continue to move across the Mediterranean with scattered showers this week and we could see more systems moving through northern areas later this week, weekend, and into next week as well. Drier conditions over the last few months have been worrisome for some in France, Germany, and the UK. Multiple chances are starting to show up to bring needed precipitation, but amounts on the models are not widespread heavy like they need to be. Winter crops that are getting into reproductive stages of growth need rain quickly.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Streaks of scattered showers continue in the east on Wednesday while additional showers will likely occur for western areas into the weekend. A wetter pattern over the last couple of weeks has been beneficial, but rainfall deficits are still very large in many areas. Though western areas may continue to see showers next week, the pattern is starting to turn a little drier, especially for southwestern Russia, which may impact reproductive to filling winter wheat and emerging corn.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Recent dryness and drought continue to develop over some important areas of the country's wheat belt, though some showers are moving through the west and far east over the next couple of days. Despite this, rainfall is largely below normal for this time of year, unfavorable for winter wheat and canola establishment.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Despite some recent rain, drier conditions in central portions of China are stressing wheat and canola that are in reproductive to filling stages. It may also stress some corn and soybean areas that have just been planted as well. A couple of fronts will come through to end the month, but are forecast to produce limited precipitation. Northern corn and soybean areas are in better shape with soil moisture, but have also been very cold, which has likely slowed planting progress. Showers here are also forecast to be more isolated for the rest of the month.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers and heavy rain. Temperatures near to below normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Sunday, mostly south. Temperatures below normal through Sunday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday, southwest Saturday-Sunday.

Temperatures below normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday-Friday. Temperatures below normal Monday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday, below normal north and above normal south Saturday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers south Monday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday-Friday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, above normal Saturday-Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday.

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