DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:

There is trough in the Central with another in the Gulf of Alaska. The Central trough will travel east with a ridge developing in the West over the next couple of days. The ridge west and trough east pattern should be familiar through the end of the month. The trough in the Gulf of Alaska will send some disturbances over the ridge and into the eastern trough later this week and weekend.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

The trough in the Gulf of Alaska probably take a short break before sending more disturbances through Canada later next week.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar in the upper levels, but not on details at the surface. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will move into the Plains on Friday and then move east across the southern tier over the weekend into next week. Showers may get into the southern Midwest as well. We should see another disturbance moving through northern areas later next week and weekend. Temperatures will generally be warm west of the Rockies and cooler east. Though temperatures will rise in the Northern Plains toward the end of next week and should spread through more of the country going into the early parts of June.

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...109 AT FAITH RANCH, TX

LOW MON...10 AT MANILA, UT

24-HOUR PRECIPITATION ENDING AT 7PM CDT MONDAY...LINCOLN, NE 2.13 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6- TO 10-DAY PERIOD:

There is trough in the Central with another in the Gulf of Alaska. The Central trough will travel east with a ridge developing in the West over the next couple of days. The ridge west and trough east pattern should be familiar through the end of the month. The trough in the Gulf of Alaska will send some disturbances over the ridge and into the eastern trough later this week and weekend. But probably take a short break before sending more through later next week.

The U.S. and European models are relatively similar in the upper levels, but not on details at the surface. I will use a blend but favor the European.

A system will move into the Plains on Friday and then move east across the southern tier over the weekend into next week. Showers may get into the southern Midwest as well. We should see another disturbance moving through northern areas later next week and weekend. Temperatures will generally be warm west of the Rockies and cooler east. Though temperatures will rise in the Northern Plains toward the end of next week and should spread through more of the country going into the early parts of June.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system continues to produce areas of heavy rain across the region into Wednesday. It may be cold enough for snow to mix in over North Dakota Tuesday night, though accumulations are unlikely. The rainfall will continue to ease drought conditions in the region and be helpful for early growth. Additional rain will move through Thursday night into the weekend. Temperatures will remain cold through the weekend, but go on a warming trend next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Widespread showers and thunderstorms finally gave Nebraska some much-needed rainfall over the last couple of days and parts of western Kansas got some needed showers as well. The system leaves on Tuesday, but disturbances could bring additional showers for the rest of the week. Another system moves through this weekend into early next week with more widespread showers. Southwestern areas are less likely to see rain though, and some areas are getting too dry. Temperatures will generally be below normal through a good portion of next week though, which should keep stress down for those areas.

MIDWEST (LIVESTOCK/WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system is bringing through widespread showers and thunderstorms that continues through Thursday. And another system may bring showers to western and southern parts of the region Friday into the weekend as well. The rainfall should be good for crop growth for much of the region, though some that still have planting to do could be delayed. Cold temperatures will spread through the remainder of the region over the next day or two, being in place into a good portion of next week. Frost is not a very likely concern, but could develop under the right conditions in some patchy areas. Temperatures will rise going into June.

DELTA/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER (CORN/SOYBEANS/COTTON/TRANSPORTATION): A front is bringing more showers and thunderstorms to the region on Tuesday and some additional showers may follow behind Wednesday night into Thursday. Yet another system is forecast to bring showers in over the weekend into early next week, which may be heavy again. There have only been limited dry days across the region all spring, which has built in a lot of soil moisture, but also caused ponding and flooding for extended periods as well. Temperatures are trending much cooler, which may also lead to disease pressure in areas that cannot dry out.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): A system continues to bring scattered showers to Saskatchewan and parts of Manitoba through Wednesday while additional showers will be possible in Alberta through Friday. Recent rainfall has been beneficial after a wide open planting window has helped to get many producers off to a fast pace. Another such window is opening for the end of the month, which should also allow most producers to complete their work prior to the start of June. Cold temperatures are limiting germination and early growth, with some patchy frost that has been very limited this week and overall not a concern. Otherwise, conditions continue to be mostly favorable across the region.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A front will bounce around southern Brazil throughout the week, offering some potential rainfall. That is coming mostly for the state of Rio Grande do Sul, a winter wheat state that would enjoy some rain for establishment. Showers may make it into Parana and help filling corn in some limited fashion. Otherwise, the country stays drier, forcing safrinha corn to use up the remaining subsoil moisture.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front brought deluges of rain to central portions of the country over the weekend, with significant flooding and damage occurring there. Many of these areas are still in the midst of harvest and could have seen some hits to quality and production. The front may remain active with scattered showers across the north this week. Outside of the flooding, overall rainfall has been beneficial for winter wheat planting and establishment.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A system will continue to move across the Mediterranean with scattered showers this week and we could see more systems moving through northern areas later this week, weekend, and into next week as well. Drier conditions over the last few months have been worrisome for some in France, Germany, and the UK, but multiple chances are starting to show up to bring needed precipitation. They need to hurry for winter crops though, which are getting into reproductive stages of growth.

BLACK SEA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Streaks of scattered showers continue through at least Wednesday while additional showers will likely occur for western areas into the weekend. A wetter pattern over the last couple of weeks has been beneficial, but rainfall deficits are still very large in many areas. Though western areas may continue to see showers next week, the pattern is starting to turn a little drier, especially for southwestern Russia, which may impact reproductive to filling winter wheat and emerging corn.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Some showers developed across the east coast over the weekend, but the majority of the wheat belt was dry. That largely continues this week as well though some showers may sneak into the west on Thursday, and the east for Thursday and Friday into the weekend. Large-scale dryness and drought continue to develop over some important areas of the country's wheat belt, however, unfavorable for winter wheat and canola establishment.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Despite some recent rain, drier conditions in central portions of China are stressing wheat and canola that are in reproductive to filling stages. It may also stress some corn and soybean areas that have just been planted as well. A couple of fronts will come through to end the month, but are forecast to produce limited precipitation. Northern corn and soybean areas are in better shape with soil moisture, but have also been very cold, which has likely slowed planting progress. Showers here are also forecast to be more isolated for the rest of the month.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal north and above normal south.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday.

Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, below normal Wednesday-Saturday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, below normal Wednesday-Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures below normal Sunday-Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal west and above normal east.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday, below normal north and above normal south Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday-Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal Sunday-Thursday.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers south. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday, above normal Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday.

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